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April 11, 2008 Since polling stations
closed on March 29, the British government and the myriad of
organisations it sponsors, among them MDC-Tsvangirai, have been
claiming victory over Zanu-PF that one is left wondering who
really squared off against Zanu-PF in this election.
Was Zanu-PF battling MDC-T, MDC, and the
other fringe parties or much bigger forces out of the line of
vision?
Reading and watching copy from the Western
media, one would be forgiven for thinking that little Zimbabwe
was at war with the entire Western hemisphere, and it had just
surrendered, but more on that latter.
The other question that begs an answer is
what do those in MDC-T mean when they say they "won" the
elections when all they have to show is a two-seat advantage
over Zanu-PF in the House of Assembly, whereas Zanu-PF has a
six-seat advantage over MDC-T in the Upper House of Parliament,
the Senate.
While we know that the House of Assembly
is considered the centre of legislative power, all who are
familiar with parliamentary business can testify that there is
nothing the House of Assembly can do without the approval of the
Senate which is supposed to provide quality control on Bills
from the Lower House.
And though in the event of a dispute, the
Lower House carries the day after a certain specified time
period, MDC-T simply does not have the numbers to do that.
What is more, reports of vote tampering
that have prompted Zanu-PF to challenge results in 21
constituencies are likely to dent MDC-T's two-seat cushion, and
may actually see the scales tip in favour of Zanu-PF.
So what victory was Tsvangirai talking
about?
Then there is the issue of the three
by-elections, which may be split evenly as Gwanda South Zanu-PF,
Pelandaba-Mpopoma MDC and Redcliff MDC-T, which means MDC-T does
not stand a good chance of stretching its lead on the back of
those by-elections.
If anything, Tsvangirai and his camp must
pray hard that no by-elections come in any of the rural
constituencies they won courtesy of the Zanu-PF syndrome of
imposing candidates, for the Zakas and Gutus will surely come
back to Shake-Shake building, Zanu-PF headquarters.
For those not in the know, MDC-T won 99
seats to Zanu-PF's 97 with MDC -- led by Arthur Mutambara --
getting the other 10 seats while for Mavambo, the envisaged
beginning was apparently the end as Simba Makoni and gang got
zilch, nix, nada or zero seats.
Many believe the votes Simba got in the
presidential contest came courtesy of Mutambara's endorsement.
Even Edgar "Twoboy" Tekere, for all his
fury, got nothing in his perceived stronghold of Mutare, summing
up the story of mavambo akava magumo (the beginning that was the
end).
The story was the same in the Senate where
Zanu-PF garnered 30 of the 60 seats on offer with MDC-T getting
24 and MDC 6.
The picture, however, gets interesting
when one considers that in addition to the 60 directly elected
Senators and the President and the Deputy President of the
Council of Chiefs, the Senate will be made up of 10 Provincial
Governors, 16 Chiefs and 5 Presidential appointees. With all
indications pointing to the fact that the president who will do
the appointing will be Cde R. G. Mugabe after sweeping aside
Tsvangirai's challenge in the envisaged run-off, MDC-T has
nothing to celebrate indeed.
This will bring the total number of
Senators to 93 and of these, at least 63 will obviously bear
allegiance to Zanu-PF and its quest for self-determination. As
such, when it comes to the crunch, the Zanu-PF vote in the Upper
House will outstrip MDC-T three-fold.
So which victory is Tsvangirai talking
about?
Even when looking at the popular vote, it
is evident that Zanu-PF beat MDC-T in both Houses amassing 45,94
percent of the vote to MDC-T's 43,56 in the Senate; and 45,94
percent to 42,88 in the House of Assembly suffrage. Put simply,
more people voted for Zanu-PF than MDC-T.
So which victory is Tsvangirai talking
about?
It is important to note that Zanu-PF's
total does not include the two House of Assembly and Senate
constituencies it won unopposed when Cdes Edward Raradza and
Damien Mumvuri were unchallenged in Muzarabani and Rushinga
constituencies when Nomination Courts closed in February.
The votes in these constituencies will,
however, be reflected in the presidential poll, which will push
Zanu-PF's share of the vote even higher.
So again, which victory is Tsvangirai
talking about?
It is simply inconceivable for Tsvangirai
to believe that he won the presidential election, let alone the
entire poll, when figures are in favour of Zanu-PF.
Judging by the results from the two Houses
of Parliament, Zanu-PF and the opposition are just sharing power
at the moment as there is no outright winner.
What is more, Zanu-PF swept the majority
of the wards that were on offer in the municipal elections,
having had a headstart of 400 wards won unopposed out of 2 000
throughout the country.
So what victory is Tsvangirai talking
about?
Anyway, some may say it is no longer
business as usual for Zanu-PF in the House of Assembly, but then
Zanu-PF made good use of the two-thirds majority it had in the
last parliament to ensure that all the laws needed to ensure
comprehensive empowerment for the people were passed and signed
before the dissolution of Parliament.
Take land, for instance, Constitution of
Zimbabwe Amendment (No. 17) Act ensured that the land reform
programme was consolidated by making all land gazetted for
resettlement from 2000 State property and providing compensation
only for improvements made on the farms.
What is more, resettled farmers have since
been given and have signed 99-year lease agreements guaranteeing
them security of tenure for a century or more.
The lease agreements are legally binding
on any and all successive governments. As such, Tsvangirai's
irrational promise to his white overlords that he will reverse
the land reform programme will bring him a lot of heartache in
the unlikely event he becomes head of state and government.
The Indigenisation and Economic
Empowerment Act was signed into law before the elections, and
stipulates that all businesses in Zimbabwe and any new
investments must ensure majority shareholding, 51 percent or
more, for black Zimbabweans.
This Act set the stage for the entrance of
black people into those sectors of the economy, among them
manufacturing and mining, that were being dominated mainly by
British-owned companies.
Therefore, as far as Zanu-PF's vision is
concerned, this new-look Parliament may as well go to sleep
because all the laws needed to pursue economic empowerment are
in place.
So what victory is Tsvangirai and his
handlers harping about?
Unless, of course, they are claiming
victory over the illegal sanctions that have made life so hard
that even the rural voter was forced to cast protest votes
against the Government.
That "victory" they can claim, for they
have stubbornly defied the progressive world's opinion on the
illegal sanctions that are, in effect, a blatant violation of
international law having been imposed outside the purview of the
United Nations Security Council.
But then the sanctions may in the end turn
out to be a blessing in disguise for Zimbabwe as they have made
the country remember the all-weather friends it appeared to have
forgotten during its ruinous flirtation with the West.
The Look East Policy is bringing in
partners on a win-win basis, and soon, very soon, even the
sanctions will be busted.
This writer just hopes it occurs before
the next elections. Tsvangirai and his allies must eat humble
pie before the world, beginning with the run-off. |