Is Moqtada Al-Sadr Ready For Peace? Mehdi Army Inside Lebanon

August 16, 2008

Moqtada al-Sadr appears to be giving peace a chance. The influential Shia cleric announced on Friday that he’d disarm the Mahdy Army if the U.S. started withdrawing its troops from Iraq according to a fixed timetable.

Sadr's decision to link disarming his army to a U.S. withdrawal comes at a crucial point in talks between Baghdad and Washington over a security deal that would provide a legal basis for the status of American forces in Iraq when a UN mandate expires at the end of the year.

"We feel there's a serious intention by the American forces for a withdrawal timetable at the very least," Sadr's spokesman Salah al-Ubaidi said before Friday prayers, when the cleric launched a new cultural wing of his movement.

"It should not be considered an end to the Mehdi army, but it's a halfway step to dissolving the Mehdi Army. If the U.S. began to implement a withdrawal timetable we shall complete the path to dissolution," Ubaidi added.

President Bush has refused numerous calls to set a firm timetable for withdrawing the 144,000 troops from Iraq. But last month he spoke of a general “time horizon” for a pullout.
 
On Friday, a senior Iraqi official told Reuters that Iraqi negotiators have proposed that U.S. forces pull out from the streets of Iraqi cities by the middle of next year and combat troops withdraw by October 2010.

Although the Iraqis say a deal is close, the White House says that it’s too soon to say when it can withdraw its forces. The issue is politically sensitive, not just in Iraq but also for the Americans who will vote for a new president in November.

If agreed, the timetable proposed by the Iraqis would mean the Bush administration is adopting a schedule very similar to that proposed by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, whose plan calls for the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops over 16 months.

Moqtada al-Sadr, who political movement controls 10% of seats in parliament, has long called for a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. He has backed Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's rise to power in 2006 but split with him last year over the timetable issue.

Sadr's spokesman said while the "resistance" would not end until U.S. troops left Iraq, the cleric was ready to take positive steps if Washington moved in the right direction.

"If we find (this does not happen) and the U.S. forces change their stance over the timetable, we can change direction also," he said. "This will not mean ending the ceasefire, it will depend on what's going on the ground."

• Setbacks

According to an article on the BBC, the strength of the Sadrist movement and the level of support it has in Iraq are two questions that couldn’t be easily answered these days.

The Sadrist movement was once the most powerful political and military Shia force in Iraq. In 2004, the Mahdy Army launched two uprisings against U.S. occupation forces and the group enjoyed great support in the war-torn country.

In August 2007, al-Sadr declared a ceasefire – an announcement that has been a major factor in a drop in violence to four-year lows.

But the movement has faced a number of setbacks in recent months. Earlier this year, U.S.-backed Iraqi troops launched an offensive against the Mahdy Army in Baghdad, Basra and other parts of southern Iraq.

The clashes claimed the lives of hundreds of people but local ceasefires brokered by the Iranians stopped the fighting and Mahdy Army fighters disappeared from the streets but they kept their weapons.

• Reorganization

It might not be clear whether the Sadr movement is as strong as before. But it’s obvious that there has been a strategic rethink about the future shape of the Mahdi Army. It appears that Sadr and his aides are transforming the Army’s make-up.

Most significant was the recent announcement that the Mahdy Army would be divided in two sections: a large “civilian movement” dealing with religious, cultural and social affairs and smaller “special companies” of fighters.

"Resisting the occupation will be the responsibility of a limited number of Mehdi Army members," said Sheikh Obeidi, Sadr’s spokesman. "They will be named secretly by religious leaders in the Mehdi Army."

• Waning support?

The Sadrists’ call for an end to the U.S. occupation is likely to be heard in campaigning for the key provincial elections that are due to be held later this year. Although the Sadrists will not contest seats, the movement will support "independents" across the Shia south.

The polls will indicate whether Sadr's mass support has been weakened by the government military operations and the criminality of many individual militiamen.

The way Maliki’s government involve Sadr in the political process would be crucial to the future of Iraq. Maliki is from another Shia faction and many Sadrists believe that he ordered the military operations in Basra to weaken his political opponent.

"If Sadr is excluded from Iraq's political process, feels the process is unfair, or [if the cleric] chooses to mix politics with violence, the Mahdy Army could again become a major threat," said Mr Anthony Cordesman, an American political analyst.

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