Gaza
And Lebanon: Beware The Iron Wall, The Coming War
7 February 2010By Ramzy Baroud
The Israeli military may be much less effective in
winning wars than it was in the past, thanks to the
stiffness of Arab resistance. But its military
strategists are as shrewd and unpredictable as ever.
The recent rhetoric that has escalated from Israel
suggests that a future war in Lebanon will most likely
target Syria as well. While this doesn’t necessarily
mean that Israel actually intends on targeting either
of these countries in the near future, it is certainly
the type or language that often precedes Israeli
military maneuvers.
Deciphering the available clues regarding the nature
of Israel’s immediate military objectives is not
always easy, but it is possible. One indicator that
could serve as a foundation for any serious prediction
of Israel’s actions is Israel’s historical tendency to
seek a perpetual state of war. Peace, real peace, has
never been a long-term policy.
"Unlike many others, I consider that peace is not a
goal in itself but only a means to guarantee our
existence," claimed Yossi Peled, a former army general
and current Cabinet Minister in Benjamin Netanyahu’s
right-wing government.
Israeli official policy – military or otherwise - is
governed by the same Zionist diktats that long
preceded the establishment of the state of Israel. If
anything has changed since early Zionists outlined
their vision, it was the interpretation of those
directives. The substance has remained intact.
For example, Zionist visionary, Vladimir Jabotinsky
stated in 1923 that Zionist “colonization can…continue
and develop only under the protection of a force
independent of the local population – an iron wall
which the native population cannot break through.” He
was not then referring to an actual wall. While his
vision took on various manifestations throughout the
years, in 2002 it was translated into a real wall
aimed at prejudicing any just solution with the
Palestinians. Now, most unfortunately, Egypt has also
started building its own steel wall along its border
with the war-devastated and impoverished Gaza Strip.
One thing we all know by now is that Israel is a
highly militarized country. Its definition of
‘existence’ can only be ensured by its uncontested
military dominance at all fronts, thus the devastating
link between Palestine and Lebanon. This link makes
any analysis of Israel’s military intents in Gaza,
that excludes Lebanon - and in fact, Syria - seriously
lacking.
Consider, for example, the unprecedented Israeli
crackdown on the Second Palestinian Uprising which
started in September 2000. How is that linked to
Lebanon? Israel had been freshly defeated by the
Lebanese resistance, led by Hizbullah, and was forced
to end its occupation of most of South Lebanon in May
2000. Israel wanted to send an unmistakable message to
Palestinians that this defeat was in fact not a defeat
at all, and that any attempt at duplicating the
Lebanese resistance model in Palestine would be
ruthlessly suppressed. Israel’s exaggeration in the
use of its highly sophisticated military to stifle a
largely popular revolution was extremely costly to
Palestinians in terms of human toll.
Israel’s 34-day war on Lebanon in July 2006 was an
Israeli attempt at destroying Arab resistance, and
restoring its metaphorical iron wall. It backfired,
resulting in a real – not figurative – Israeli defeat.
Israel, then, did what it does best. It used its
superior air force, destroyed much of Lebanon’s
civilian infrastructure and killed more than 1,200
people, mostly civilians. The resistance, with humble
means, killed more than 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers
during combat.
Not only did Hizbullah had penetrated the Israeli iron
wall, it had also filled it with holes. It challenged,
like never before, the Israeli army’s notion of
invincibility and illusion of security. Something went
horribly wrong in Lebanon.
Since then, the Israeli army, intelligence,
propagandists and politicians have been in constant
preparation for another showdown. But before such
pending battle, the nation needed to renew its faith
in its army and government intelligence; thus the war
in Gaza late December 2008.
As appalling as it was for Israeli families to gather
en masse near the Israeli Gaza border, and watch
giddily as Gaza and Gazans were blown to smithereens,
the act was most rational. The victims of the war may
have been Palestinians in Gaza, but the target
audience was Israelis. The brutal and largely
one-sided war united Israelis, including their
self-proclaimed leftist parties in one rare moment of
solidarity. Here was proof that the IDF still had
enough strength to report military achievements.
Of course, Israel’s military strategists knew well
that their war crimes in Gaza were a clumsy attempt at
regaining national confidence. The tightly lipped
politicians and army generals wanted to give the
impression that all was working according to plan. But
the total media blackout, and the orchestrated footage
of Israeli soldiers flashing military signs and waving
flags on their way back to Israel were clear
indications of an attempt to improve a problematic
image.
Thus Yossi Peled’s calculated comments on January 23:
"In my estimation, understanding and knowledge it is
almost clear to me that it is a matter of time before
there is a military clash in the north." Further, he
claimed that "We are heading toward a new
confrontation, but I don't know when it will happen,
just as we did not know when the second Lebanon war
would erupt."
Peled is of course right. There will be a new
confrontation. New strategies will be employed. Israel
will raise the stakes, and will try to draw Syria in,
and push for a regional war. A Lebanon that defines
itself based on the terms of resistance – following
the failure to politically co-opt Hizbullah – is
utterly unacceptable from the Israeli viewpoint. That
said, Peled might be creating a measured distraction
from efforts aimed at igniting yet another war -
against the besieged resistance in Gaza, or something
entirely different. (Hamas’ recent announcement that
its senior military leader Mahmoud al- Mabhouh was
killed late January in Dubai at the hands of Israeli
intelligence is also an indication of the involved
efforts of Israel that goes much further than specific
boundaries.)
Will it be Gaza or Lebanon first? Israel is sending
mixed messages, and deliberately so. Hamas, Hizbullah
and their supporters understand well the Israeli
tactic and must be preparing for the various
possibilities. They know Israel cannot live without
its iron walls, and are determined to prevent any more
from being built at their expense.
- Ramzy Baroud (www.ramzybaroud.net) is an
internationally-syndicated columnist and the editor of
PalestineChronicle.com. His latest book is "My Father
Was a Freedom Fighter: Gaza's Untold Story" (Pluto
Press, London), now available on Amazon.com.
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