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29 May 2010 By Markaz Kavkaz A prominent political scientist, director of
Russian and Asian programs at the US Security
Institute Nikolai Zlobin pointed out that the collapse
of Russia has not been yet completed. "We are in process. It would be naive to believe
that the empire collapsed in one day. Empires collapse
slowly and painfully. Especially, if they consist of
neighboring territories and mixed population defined
by a set of criteria", he points out. It is equally naive to expect, Zlobin continues, if
the collapse occurred in accordance with the borders
of the Union republics, that was the end of it. Many
of the borders are unnatural and do not coincide with
historical, ethnic, cultural, religious, economical
borders. The borders within the USSR were political.
As a result, according to Zlobin, the post-Soviet
space is an unstable region with a high degree of
unpredictability and a high proportion of political
improvisation. There is a probability of appearance of
new states and a collapse or a change of territories
of some present countries. It is to be mentioned that many experts and
analysts speak for a long time an inevitable collapse
of Russia. Some Western analysts predict the collapse
of Russia after a temporary commodity upsurge within
the next 10 years. This forecast, in particular, is contained in a
book by the head of the American analytical service
Stratfor Inc. George Friedman entitled The Next 100
Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, which was
published in 2009. According to one of the most respected futurist
analysts, in short-term prospect, Russia can expect a
rise linked to a high demand for raw materials. During this period, Moscow will pursue an
aggressive foreign policy in an attempt to regain
influence in the former Soviet Union. However, in 10
years, Russian welfare will collapse because of the
poor management, primitive structure of economy and
decline in fertility. According to Friedman, the collapse of Russia will
boost the influence of Poland and Turkey. In addition,
the analyst predicts the collapse of China and the
strengthening of Japan. Many Russian national liberals and the nationalists
believe there is no need to fear of the collapse of
Russia. On the contrary, in their opinion, the sooner
it happens the better it would be for Russians. The collapse of the current inefficient and
primitive imperial formation would allow the regions
to build a diversified economy, to establish
acceptable laws, in some countries, to destroy the
corrupt "vertical of power" and the criminal "power
vertical". According to many critics of the Kremlin regime, if
the powers in Russian belonged not to to the KGB, but
to responsible forces, they would have started a
process of decentralization of Russia themselves. In
that case the process would be controlled and
bloodless, without social upheaval and civil strife,
the Ingriya.info website reports. |
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