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A
Unified Gulf? The Arabs And Arabism - An Endless Culture
Of Disunity
26 June 2010By Abdul Rahman
Al-Rashid
This is not a new issue, but rather a seasonal one
that we can discuss from different angels, such as
that of Arab or Gulf unity, among others. Anybody who
discussed this matter and has examined its details
must be aware that any attempt to unify any two
countries in the world represents a shocking and
difficult endeavor, and history testifies that this is
something that can only be achieved through military
action.
There are only six Arab Gulf countries in the Gulf
Cooperation Council [GCC] and after thirty years they
have failed to reach an agreement on consolidating the
riyal, dinar, and dirham into a single currency,
despite the ease of such an undertaking, and the
similarity in the Arab Gulf economies. However despite
the failure to institute a single currency, and other
missteps, the GCC represents the most successful such
institution in the region.
Dr. Abdullah al-Nafaisi shocked Gulf States by
quoting a US study that said that only 2 Gulf
countries will survive the next 15 years, Saudi Arabia
and Oman. Nobody discussed this study, instead
everybody focused upon its findings, and it is
important that we be aware that such studies do not
represent absolute facts. More importantly, political
studies or analysis – regardless of who is writing
this study or what institution is issuing it – remains
nothing more than a study that must be open to
discussion with an open mind. It is a huge mistake to
try and transform politics into mathematics. In the
West there are dozens of respectable institutions, and
hundreds of competent Middle Eastern researchers, and
they discuss and debate theories and conclusions put
forward, therefore it would be a mistake to select one
particular study and disregard all others.
Dozens of studies have been issued over the past 5
decades, all of which put forward a host of different
predictions for the future of the Gulf region, many of
which were proved to be completely wrong, from
predictions of secession, to wars, to coups. For
example an American scholar and researcher William
Quandt published an entire book in the 1980s
predicting the death of Saudi Arabia, while the RAND
Corporation issued a study on the September 11 attacks
that predicted a far more shocking fate for Saudi
Arabia and Egypt than this. There are many similar
examples, and each study represents one single
analysis among a myriad of other analyses, some of
which are contradictory.
More importantly, I think it wrong to intimidate
Gulf States by saying "either you merge with Saudi
Arabia or you will be devoured by Iran." Such a
statement might prompt these countries to adopt a
defensive or isolationist stance, instead of thinking
about their future in an open-minded manner. We must
not underestimate any Gulf State, no matter how small,
for they are amongst the oldest countries in the world
despite their recent political independence and the
newness of their institutions. These are states that
survived troubled and turbulent centuries which saw
the rise and fall of mighty empires in our region.
More importantly, diversity is not necessarily a
disadvantage, especially if there is harmony and
agreement amongst the different neighboring countries.
In fact, this is something that would be an advantage
and in everybody's best interests. If we look at
Bahrain for example, we would see that while it is the
smallest of the Gulf States, it is ruled by one of the
most prestigious houses in the Arab region, more
importantly Bahrain serves as a beacon of
enlightenment and modernization for all Gulf States.
If Bahrain was annexed to Saudi Arabia, it may not
have been as successful in performing such a role due
to the difference in nature between the two countries.
Likewise, if the UAE merged with Oman, it may not have
been able to pursue its modernizing and developmental
path due to the difference in strategy and management
between the two ruling regimes.
Al-Nafaisi is right to sound the alarm about the
dangers facing the Gulf States; however we can face up
to future threats in a manner that does not involve
following the paths of annexations and unification,
for closer cooperation among Gulf States will achieve
greater results than unification. Many aspects of Gulf
cooperation are failing today because the politicians
are unable to appreciate the full magnitude of the
positive impact this would have on their regimes and
people. Needless to say, there are countries in the
region and all around the world that are biding their
time and waiting for an opportunity to pounce on these
Gulf States. They view these states as being rich
treasuries, and are waiting for the right moment to
break in and rob them. After all, we live in a world
that is full of villains and bandits.
Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of
Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in
the daily newspapers of Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is
a US post-graduate degree in mass communications. He
has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs.
He is currently based in Dubai.
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