10 October 2010 By Franklin Lamb On a clear day you can see Akka, Palestine from my
favorite Lebanese village, Maron al Ras, where more
than a few analysts here conjecture that the next and
6th aggression by Israel against Lebanon will begin. On any day, but particularly since 9/21/10, you can
also see beefed up Zionist military patrols, assorted
electronic listening posts, sundry spy devices, new
Raytheon-produced surveillance equipment, two new
supposedly camouflaged cinder block one room shacks
with Zionist soldiers peering out menacingly while
talking on their (Hezbollah-monitored) cell phones to
girlfriends, mothers, pals and their HQ's. They
frequently glare from windows heavily-screened to keep
out stones that tourists on the Lebanon side of the
‘blue line' regularly throw at them when UNIFIL guys
aren't paying attention or shoo them away. You can
also see land mine fields, wide soft sand swatches
along the wire fences to detect trespassing neighbors
footprints, a couple of orchards, and the edges of
three colonial settlements. And if one were to squint,
like really squint, or better yet, risk getting shot
between the eyes by a Zionist sniper with an American
7.62 mm, Sniper Weapon System, M24 (called a "system"
because it can be used with various detachable
telescopic sights and other accessories) and were to
use some Barska Cosmos 25X100 binoculars, one might
see, well, vent holes. These air ducts, according to imaginative and
joking village kids, are guarded by specially trained
scorpions, the holes bringing in fresh air for scores
of 130 feet plus bunkers that some miscreants are
rumored to have gone and built all over northern Palestine as far
south as Safad. The increase in activity along the Blue line,
especially near Fatima's Gate is only partially in preparation for the rumored visit
of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in mid-
October. An Israeli invasion could be launched at any
time and locals explain that, for their part, they
have selected their targets, completed their
surveillance, so far eluded capture and are ready to
attack deep into Palestine when commanded. President Ahmadinejad is also expected to appear
and speak at Maron al Ras, presumably without
binoculars and resisting the temptation to cast a few
stones in solidarity with the Palestinian intifadas.
UNIFIL personnel at the scene reveal that several
Israeli military leaders have been visiting the area
this past month, including Chief of Staff Gabi
Ashkenazi. It is here in this ancient verdant, war scared
hillside village of Maron al Ras where tradition
instructs that Jesus (Issa) from Nazareth, less than a
day's walk to the South, accompanying his sainted
mother Mary (Miriam), paused to rest on their trek to
a wedding feast at Qana, some 30 km west. At Qana, the site of unspeakable massacres in 1996
and 2006, two of the more than 60 committed by Zionist
forces over the past six decades, the bearded
Palestinian "terrorist", so-listed by the Sanhedrin
judges, performed at his mother's request his first
miracle. Qana residents are quick to point out that it
was this same Sanhedrin that would later pay Judas
Iscariot 30 pieces of silver to deliver up Jesus for
trial on false death penalty charges of Blasphemy and
would sentence his brother James to death by stoning.*
According to a local priest who conducts tours of the
Grotto of the Virgin Mary in Qana, where Mary and her
son visited with the family of the soon to be
newlyweds, "By turning water into wine, Jesus
dutifully fulfilled his mother Mary's request to
provide additional refreshment for the larger than
expected gathering of nearby villagers." The priest
explains to visitors that the parents of the bride and
groom wanted to avoid the acute social embarrassment
of running out of refreshments and were concerned for
the comfort of last minute uninvited guests, who they
anticipated would arrive for their children's wedding
as word quickly spread that Jesus and his mother would
be attending. One guest who is receiving invitations even from
March 14 pro-Saudi political parties for frank
discussions this month and who has already been
invited to Qana, but who probably won't imbibe the
local "miracle wine" sold by local entrepreneurs,
(from under the tent so to speak) will be the
President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad. He is said to be a devotee of Prophet
Issa and Miriam, both venerated in the Holy Qur'an. In Lebanon, it sometimes appears even to the
"particularly obtuse" – to borrow a phrase from my
favorite constitutional law professor and scholar,
Henry Paul Monaghan, who sometimes called us first
year law students "particularly obtuse" – that
everything is viewed thru the smoky prism of local
politics and sects. Two lovely and politically
passionate Qana villagers (one giggling and claiming
to be a "Shia-Christian" and her friend interjecting
"I'm a Christian-Shia!"), both Muslims who follow the
teachings of "Prophet Issa", explained to this
foreigner that many Rabbis disparage Jesus' miracle in
Qana by claiming that it was the Hebrew Moses who was
first able to turn water into another substance. They
then gleefully counter that "Moses may well have done
it, but Moses turned water into blood as a message of
harsh judgment and violence, whereas "our" Palestinian
Issa turned water into wine as a message of love,
generosity and hospitality." The discussion ended when
an American Yeshiva student from Brooklyn appeared and
entered the discussion announcing to the villagers
that both Bible stories "suck" and that when the next
war comes Qana may witness itself being miraculously
turned into depleted uranium dust. In both Maron al Ras and Qana, villagers believe
it's just a matter of time before Israel will invade
Lebanon and it's a subject of rare unanimous sectarian
consensus in all of Lebanon. For example, in the
course of no more than two hours the other day, while
running errands around Beirut, this observer was
informed, without even bringing up the subject, by (1)
my Shia Muslim Hezbollah motorcycle mechanic patching
up my bike after a slight mishap (again!) (2) Miss
Idriss, the Maronite Christian lady who works at the
corner bank and who truly adores "al Hakim" Samir
Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces (since 2006,
Geagea and the LF has been siphoning off alienated
cadres and youth from the ranks of Geagea's rivals
including the Gemayals' Phalange and Michel Aoun's
Christian pro-Hezbollah Free Patriotic Movement, and
(3) my Sunni Muslim greengrocer lady who has
absolutely no use for any of the above, that a major
war is coming and probably sooner rather than later. Purveyors of Israeli Hasbara are also keeping busy
with predictions of a World War I type inevitability
of major war in Lebanon given the claimed rapid arming
of the national Lebanese resistance led by Hezbollah,
and the Israeli touted collection of yet more new
‘ultra-tech super weapons' including robotic insects,
new stealth drones, Iron Domes, David Sling I and II
missile shields, yet even more improvements to the
"impenetrable" Merkava Mark IV tank that took such a
beating in 2006 that three countries, including
Belgium, cancelled Merkava purchase orders. Israel and
its "academic agents" tout more than 20 other
spectacular "game changing" technological
breakthroughs ‘just since the 2006 war which,
according to Anthony Cordesman of the Center for
Strategic & International Studies and Jane's Defense
Weekly, likely will not function in real war
conditions – despite the largess of the unknowing
American taxpayers who pick up the tab for their R &
D. Virtually the whole waterfall of Hasbara studies,
many handsomely paid for by various Israel lobby
funders, conclude that the next Hezbollah Israel war
will be nothing like the 2006 July War. In addition,
pro-Israel authors routinely skew their research to
reassure their paymasters that Hezbollah will lose to
the spruced up, better-equipped and trained Israeli
soldiers and that their defeat will not only shatter
Hezbollah, but destroy Syria and Iran's political
power base and fundamentally change the political
scene in Beirut. This they confidently predict will lead to a
pro-American and Israel-tolerant realignment of
political parties and even achieve the long sought
Lebanon-Israel "peace treaty." Some "Lobby papers"
conclude that the next battle will deliver changes as
far away as Iran, and destroy Hamas. Designed to bolster the increasingly dubious
Israeli public opinion, some Israeli think tanks claim
that the massive US taxpayer funded therapy program
for returning 2006 Israeli troops has succeeded in
lowering the rates of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)
and has lowered the percentage of "shell shock"
disability cases in Israel. No mention of the
skyrocketing rates of PTSD among US troops returning
from various deployments in the Middle East which are
skyrocketing, and American family complaints that
needed medical help is being denied due to Pentagon
budget "priorities." A Rand study in 2008 estimated
the total number of American service members who
served in Iraq and Afghanistan who returned with PTSD, Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI),
or "had their bell rung" to use the terminology
employed by some staff in Ward E7 at the National
Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, outside
Washington, is more than 320,000. Today the figure is
thought to be near 350,000. Only a small percentage
are being properly treated according to the Department
of Veterans Affairs and Bethesda medical staff, both
of which admit they are not equipped to handle
them—most severely maimed for life. Increasingly, some
family members are becoming bitter and complaining
about budget cuts. One mother recently complained to
Congressman Steny Hoyer (veteran not of the US
military but of more than a dozen US taxpayer paid
trips to Israel) that "Israel always comes first
and we pay for treatment and therapy for their
soldiers and we sent our boys and girls to Iraq and
Afghanistan because they told us to." As reported by former CIA analyst Ray McGovern
writing in Counterpunch recently, "Just this past
week at Fort Hood, Texas, four decorated veterans of
the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan took their own lives,
adding to the 14 other suicides this year at Fort Hood
alone." Timur Goskel, former advisor to the United Nations
Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), is dismissive of
many of these "Research Papers" and their (almost
without exception) Zionist authors: "They don't
know the other side of the story. They don't know what
is happening here in Lebanon or what is Hezbollah
doing or what Hezbollah is capable of. They will
likely be shocked when they find out. They guess from
newspapers and whatever and Hezbollah is not the
organization you can read about in newspapers
accurately. They don't talk too much." Goskel
added. Some of the Israeli Lobby think tank predictions
may indeed materialize but the history of Hezbollah
and Israel on the battlefield and other factors,
ignored by pro-Israel "scholars" who either aren't
aware of them, or don't want to risk their sinecures
by mentioning unpleasant facts to their employers,
suggest that Israel will lose its next aggression
against Lebanon. It is clear that Hezbollah has been studying its
enemy. Scorecard: Four Hezbollah
conflicts with Israeli forces The June 1982 Israeli invasion is not included in
this brief consideration because Hezbollah was not
fully organized and in fact its birth was partially
the result of the 1982 "Peace for Galilee" aggression
that slaughtered nearly 20,000 Lebanese civilians and
Palestinian refugees as well as setting the stage for
the Sabra-Shatila Massacre. On August 30, 1982, Israel
did achieve its goal of expelling most of its PLO
nemesis but catastrophically failed in its main
objective of ending Lebanese resistance activity, as a
PLO replacement Hezbollah quickly became a far
stronger and more sophisticated adversary. Many fighters who eventually joined Hezbollah but
who fought in 1982 with the PLO or with a variety of
affiliated militia inflicted much damage on Israeli
forces during numerous mountain battles and at Khaldeh
on the coast south of Beirut. 1985: Hezbollah pushes their Zionist enemy out of
the mountain areas Between 1978 to 1985, Zionist forces occupied
approximately 1/3 of Lebanon including 801 towns and
villages. The newly forming Hezbollah never stopped
its resistance attacks. An important Hezbollah
political victory against Israel was achieved on March
5, 1984 when its work to achieve the Lebanese Council
of Ministers cancellation of the U.S.-Israel created
May 17, 1983 agreement that would have yielded
significant Lebanese sovereignty and territory to
Israel. Another was the expulsion of foreign
"peacekeeping forces" that increasingly attacked the
civilian population of Lebanon on behalf of Israel and
its local allies. During this period Hezbollah and its allies
surprised and hit Israeli forces hard all over the
mountains and valleys and on January 14, 1985 Israel
began withdrawing from 168 villages, being 55% of
South Lebanon or 11% of Lebanon including Sidon, Tyre,
Nabatieh and parts of the Western Bekaa. The July 1993 Aggression—so
called "Operation Accountability" Israeli Chief of Staff Ehud Barak, told the
Lebanese government on 7/31/93, "Disarm Hezbollah or
watch Israeli do it." He said about the same thing to
the Obama administration on 9/30/10 at the Pentagon. Despite, 1,224 bombing attacks, according to UNIFIL
data, and firing of more than 30,000 artillery shells
and rockets, Hezbollah retaliated with what AFP on
7/25/93 called, "A hell of a shelling last[ing] 10
hours without a pause." For seven days resistance
forces conducted at least 30 operations along the Blue
line targeting Zionist forces and their Lebanese
surrogates. The US and Israel, shocked that the CIA-Mossad
intelligence estimates that Hezbollah had only 500
rockets and this supply would be depleted in three
days, decided to call for a cease-fire. The "July
Accord" took effect at 6 p.m. on 7/31/93 and Israel
withdrew and stood down, failing to achieve any of its
objectives which frankly are always the same– Disarm
the Resistance, break Hezbollah's relationships with
the Lebanese public, and force the Lebanese government
to dismantle the Resistance. On 8/19/93 Israel's PM
Rabin told his cabinet: " I regret saying this, but
Hezbollah has defeated us." The April 1996
Aggression:–the so-called "Grapes of Wrath" This aggression started on April 11, 1996 with
bombing attacks in Baalbeck and down south in Tyre at
the Lebanese army base and for the first time since
1982, attacks on Dahiyeh in South Beirut. Israel
bombed a wider area than in 1993 over a period of 16
days. This invasion became known among some in South
Lebanon as the "Four Massacres aggression": Suhmor on
4/12/96; the bombing of the Al-Mansouri ambulance on
4/13/96; Nabatieh on Day 7; and the Qana massacre on
the same day when 118 civilians were slaughtered and
127 injured. Hundreds of thousands were displaced with
7,000 homes completely or partially destroyed. Total
civilian casualties exceeded 250. Having studied each preceding war with its enemy,
Hezbollah succeeded in anticipating Israeli tactics,
paths of entrance into Lebanon and targeting actions.
Israel, not being able to find any, failed to target a
single resistance fighter or to prevent any rocket
pads from launching at will. Until the moment the
US-Israel requested ceasefire took hold, having been
arranged by US Sec. of State Warren Christopher,
Hezbollah's retaliation with Katuysha rockets
continued unabated. Israel's goals were again those
noted above. There was one addition and that was to
present Shimon Peres with a military victory to help
his election campaign which was backed by President
Clinton and staffed with some key Clinton campaign
staff. On May 29, 1996 Peres lost the election and
Hezbollah emerged from "Grapes of Wrath" victorious
and widely perceived in Washington and Tel Aviv as
having exposed Israeli battle field errors, or what
the Resistance called "impotence". The May 24, 2000 withdrawal of Israeli forces and
the complete collapse of their surrogate
collaborationist Lahdist forces. Israel's notorious
prison at Khiam was liberated by villagers and their
loved ones freed. This resistance victory was perhaps
its sweetest to date. No cheap political deals to help
the Zionists save faced. Total defeat as Israeli faces
snuck out during one night without even telling their
collaborators. A half century after Israel started its
inroads into Lebanon, except for some border enclaves
like Shebaa, Kfar Kouba and Ghajar that Hezbollah and
the Lebanese army aims to recover during the coming
war, it was out. This victory was especially valuable to the
Resistance and Lebanon as it demonstrated qualities
that will determine the outcome of the next war. It
blended a deep belief in God, magnanimous in victory,
human treatment of the vanquished, care for the
families of martyrs, insistence on dialogue with
internal adversaries, confidence in the victory of
good over evil, and thorough preparation for future
aggressions and acceptance of sacrifice. The July 2006 War, the mis-named
" Second Lebanon War" The results of the 2006 33-day Israeli aggression
are well known and documented, with none of Israel's
stated goals–namely destroying Hezbollah, acquiring a
treaty with Lebanon, breaking popular Lebanese support
for the National Lebanese Resistance–being achieved.
Hezbollah's victory resulted in a deep sea change in
Lebanese sectarian attitude towards Israel partly
because during the war all of Lebanon saw through the
Hasbara articles produced for cash at the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP was set up by
AIPAC in 1985), the American Enterprise Institute, the
Hudson Institute, the Saban Center at the Brookings
Institution, the Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies , and the Foreign Policy Initiative, among
several others. Preparing for the coming
war- knowing the enemy Sometimes Hezbollah members complain to this
observer, as one did recently, that "We spend so much time studying every
imaginable aspect of the Zionist forces and their
corrupt society, from their psychology, strengths and
weaknesses on the battle field, every battle and every
little encounter over the past 28 years, favorite
foods, drugs, and video games. Really, I don't find
them all that interesting I just want to expel them
from the rest of Lebanon and all of Palestine. The
sooner the better!" Among past wars involving Israel that Hezbollah is
said to microscopically study (in addition to all its own battles during
Israeli wars and invasions) are those of 1948, 1956,
1967, 1973, and 1978. As well as the serial
aggressions inside occupied Palestine including Gaza. Hezbollah believes Israel will indeed attack
Lebanon and that the Zionist battle plan will include
the use of the following Israeli units which Hezbollah
has been carefully studying and preparing to confront.
Among these are the 91st "Galilee Division" which
Hezbollah believes will be backed by multiple regular
and reserve brigades trying to seal Lebanon's southern
border to stop Resistance/Lebanese Army units from
moving deep inside occupied Palestine. Additionally, Hezbollah is preparing to seek out
and cripple the 162nd Armored Division which it
damaged regularly during the 2006 war as well as
confronting the 36th Armored Division normally
assigned to the Golan Heights, (unless Syria fights
this time) and at least three reserve armored
divisions (Hezbollah sources believe probably the
366th and 319th). Hezbollah has prepared meticulous plans to destroy
the 98th Paratroop Division, the much touted "Special
Forces Quality" Golani Infantry Brigade (which
Hezbollah reserve forces mauled badly in 2006), the 35th
Paratroop Brigade, the 551st "Spearhead" Brigade, the Givati
Infantry Brigade, the Alexandroni Reserve Infantry
Brigade, the Kfir Infantry Brigade specializing in
"Urban Warfare", the Carmeli Infantry Reserve Brigade,
the Sayeret Matkal Reconnaissance Unit, the Sayeret
Egoz reconnaissance unit attached to the Golani
Brigade, the Shayetet 13 Naval Commando Reconnaissance
and Raiding Unit, the Sayeret Yael Engineering Unit,
plus a variety of units specializing in combat
intelligence, supply, transport and communications. Both Hezbollah and Israel have declined comment on
current rumors coming from concerned Pentagon staff in
Washington that Hezbollah intelligence agents inside
Israel have provided the Lebanese Resistance with the
names, addresses, mobile phone numbers and email
addresses of each personnel assigned to every one of
the above units to be in its crosshairs when the
battle begins. Is Hezbollah prepared to
fight Israeli collaborators on additional fronts? Lebanese national resistance allies in and around
Parliament are claiming that the US is frantically
trying to organize a "northern second front" to help
Israel in the coming war by enticing right wing
Christian militias, Al Qaeda mixed-bag "Salafists for
lease", and anyone else willing to fight a back door
war against the Resistance while Israel kicks in the
front door north of Safad and Nahariyah down south.
The White House has reportedly vetoed one scheme to
bring in Blackwater type private contractors. Former MP Nasr Kandil who is close to Hezbollah
stated on 9/30/10: "Egypt is also training
hundreds of young gunmen in military camps in northern
Lebanon that were set up under the guise of mobile
hospitals while Jordan is training more than 700 Sunni
militia members" at the behest of the US Embassy in
Beirut and Jordan as part of "subversive initiatives
against Lebanon for Israel's benefit". These militia are claimed by Kandil and other
politicians in Lebanon (including Senior Arab
Democratic Party member Rifat Ali Eid) to be Salafi groups with links to Al Qaeda organized by the CIA
and Saudi Intelligence Services similar to the Fatah
al Islam group that fought a summer long battle from
the Palestinian camp of Nahr al Bared in 2007, and
whose ranks are being replenished in Lebanon. This week the Lebanese Forces were accused by
Hezbollah's Sheik Naim Qassim, Deputy to SG Hassan
Nasrallah, of running new LF militia training camps with speculation that they are being trained
on Russian-made BKC machine guns and the American MAG
and small mortars. If so, they are not the only ones
participating in an arms acquisition frenzy. A weapons
run ignited during the May 8, 2008 violence, cooled
down over the past two years but flared up again last
month with virtually all political parties and many
private citizens buying up available stocks of M4's
(with a launcher $12,000) M16's ($1,500) and AK47
Kalashnikov's rifles (ranging between $750-$1,000) out
of the back of cars or on road sides and alleys. Truck
loads have been reported arriving from Iraq hauling US
military supplies ‘shrinkage'. Some analysts believe that once the Israeli attack
date is imminent, northern Sunni militia being
clustered around Tripoli and Akkar and other locations
will attack Shia targets diverting Hezbollah units and
weakening its southern and eastern (Bekaa) resistance. They expect beefed up Saudi financed "Security-Plus
Inc." type units that were attempted in May of 2008.
It may be recalled that effort soon fizzled and was
ridiculed in Lebanese media as "Security-Minus Inc."
because when the green recruits got off their buses
down in Hamra they quickly defected en masse deciding
they did not want to fight Hezbollah "second team"
forces after all. For the past three years, Israel has been
instructing the White House and Congress, as Ehud
Barak told Bill Clinton on 9/21/10 at the opening of
the Clinton Global Initiative in NYC: "This time
Hezbollah must be totally eradicated from Lebanon. We
don't even want to find their residue after the next
operation!" Despite Barak's instructions, the Pentagon's J-8
Directorate for Force Structure Resources and
Assessment, which among other duties conducts
analysis, assessments, and evaluates strategies for
the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and some special American
friends, agrees with Israeli military planners and
Hezbollah on at least one subject–The next
Hezbollah-Israel war will not see Israel using many
ground forces outside of armored personnel carriers
once they enter Lebanon. The reason is that all three
agree with the Pentagon's J-8 Directorates' opinion
that based on previous battlefield performance, it
will likely require 5 Israeli soldiers to offset one
Hezbollah defender's battlefield acumen.
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