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19 January 2011 By Osman Mirghani Bye Bye to the North"…This is how the southerners
expressed their joy as they voted in the referendum on
self-determination, concluding that secession will
take place even before the end of the voting process.
The result of this referendum has been known and
determined even before the southerners went to the
poling stations, because indicators have shown that
this secession has been coming for years. Any rational
person, who read the events and understood the
significance of the policies that were applied on the
ground, could tell that the North and South were
heading towards separation. Yet it is remarkable that the southerners' joy,
regarding the forthcoming secession of South Sudan has
been matched by the joy seen in some circles
affiliated with the Khartoum regime. Editor-in-chief
of the al-Intibaha newspaper Al-Tayeb Mustafa, who
also happens to be Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir's
uncle, wrote an article calling on the people of
northern Sudan to sacrifice animals in celebration [of
the south's secession] and to offer prayers in thanks,
as the referendum represents a day of release for the
North. He even went on to say that "God has removed
what has harmed us and released us, and [Yassir] Arman,
[Malik] Aqqar, and [Abd Al Aziz] al-Halo, and their
followers (of northern leaders and elements of the
SPLM) and those atheists who resemble them will not be
able to stop us, we will begin our battle with them
from today, God willing." These extreme words do not come from someone on the
fringes, but rather from someone who is close to
government circles, writing in a newspaper that is
published with official consent, therefore this
article reflects the trend found amongst the ruling
National Congress Party [NCP], and amongst the
National Islamic Front, which hides behind the NCP,
and which has held power since it orchestrated a coup
in 1989. The attitude of this radical trend within the
government is an alarming indication that there will
be a period of repression and strict rule in the
future, as well as the possibility of escalation and
confrontation in the North. It is [also] true that
there are parties within the regime that support the
idea of expanding the government, and allowing
opposition forces to participate within it, before the
new Southern State is officially declared in July.
This would mean that all parties would then become
involved in the issue of secession, and the government
would not bear the sole responsibility [for this].
However, such parties seem to be in the minority so
far, because the regime believes it was appointed to
control the North, and the recent elections have
extended al-Bashir and the NCP's time in power. The
regime will not accept power-sharing with an
opposition it feels is weak and fragmented, unless
this opposition's superficial presence in government
serves its objectives, or if there is change in the
course of events that threatens the government's
survival. What is strange is that some state officials
have begun to issue statements to the effect that the
government, and the ruling NCP, are not responsible
for the secession of the South. Instead, they argue
that responsibility lies with the West, and Israel,
because they encouraged the southerners to secede.
This is of course a well known accusation, and a
"broken record" in the Arab world, and we have heard
this many times before. Responsibility cannot be
avoided in this case. The regime, any regime, is
responsible for the consequences of its policies and
the agreements that it signs. The unity of the state
is the responsibility of the government, and the
failure to ensure and protect this ultimately
represents the failure of the regime, because the
survival of the nation is more important than the
survival of the regime. There can be no doubt that the Sudanese regime has
adopted a strategy to deal with the post-secession
phase, and so far what has been revealed of this is
the imposition of a new political agenda, in line with
the ideology and agenda of the National Islamic Front.
The plan is for the Sudanese streets to be occupied by
matters away from the subject of the South. President
al-Bashir has talked about amending the constitution,
and moving towards an Islamic state. Al-Bashir is
supported in this by his Vice President Ali Osman Taha,
who has been a prominent leader within the National
Islamic Front since the military coup was carried out
21 years ago, and who some say is the man holding the
strings in the regime and the ruling NCP. To return to
talking about the subject of an Islamic state, the
objective of this is to repel attacks on the
government as a result of secession. This would see
any attack or opposition branded as opposition to the
Islamization of the state. It was interesting that
when the call to Islamize the Sudanese state first
emerged, a foreign Islamist group issued a statement
in support of Sudan, in its confrontation with
"foreign conspiracies", calling on the state to
prohibit the referendum on southern secession. Much
can be said about this statement which was issued by a
group of "Muslim scholars" and about the fact that it
came too late to have any effect. However, the most
important observation is that many of the signatories
of this statement were also signatories to previous
statements, in support of the National Islamic Front
in Sudan, whilst others were members of movements led
by Dr Hassan al-Turabi after Saddam Hussein's invasion
of Kuwait. It is not likely that many Sudanese have forgotten
that when the current regime first came to power it
raised Islamic slogans; however this was something
which was accompanied by severe repressive measures.
As a result, many people today are fearful that
matters are moving once again towards severe
repression, particularly as the regime is anxious
about the possible escalation of the Darfur crisis, as
well as the country's economic problems, as it will
have lost a high percentage of its oil resources with
the secession of the south. |