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11 February 2011 By Osman Mirghani When events intensified on the
Tunisian streets, former Tunisian President Zine el
Abidine Ben Ali came out and addressed the people,
expressed his "grief" for the casualties, and voiced
his "sincere and profound apologies". Subsequently, he
uttered his famous words: "I understand…I get your
message", before boarding his plane and leaving the
country. Those last words have echoed in our ears,
particularly after the popular uprising in Tunisia
shook the Arab World, whereby calls for change formed
a huge surge with the youth demonstrations in Egypt.
Nearly a month has passed since Ben Ali delivered his
last address to the nation, and over two weeks have
gone by since the outbreak of the Egyptian popular
uprising, but a question remains, worrying a lot of
people: "Have we got the message yet?" In Tunisia, as with Egypt, people are currently
manoeuvring, trying to abort the youth uprising, or
hijack it and reap its rewards, or even derail and
direct it towards a different course than originally
planned. Some of these moves suggest efforts to
circumvent matters and buy time, with the aim of
diluting calls for change and offering the least
concessions possible. Such provisions are far less
than what is required to bring about genuine changes,
to meet the demands of those who were driven by
desperation to burn themselves in public squares. Real
changes are required to respond to the aspirations of
the youth, who took to the streets in defiance of
suppression and organized violence. In Tunisia, the wheels of change are moving slowly,
as elements of Ben Ali's regime try to hold on to the
strings of power, and control the pace of the
transitional period. Consequently, demonstrations and
violent clashes flared up again in a number of
Tunisian cities over the past few days. This time, the
government moved to cease all activities of the former
governing Constitutional Democratic Rally (CDR), and
closed its headquarters, in order "to safeguard the
best interests of the nation and avoid any violation
of the law." The government's move came after several
sources had revealed that pro-CDR groups, prompted by
elements within the party, were carrying out acts of
violence and sabotage to create a state of chaos, thus
allowing the party to regain the reins, and abort the
calls for change. In Egypt, certain movements and faces have appeared
on the scene, to seize upon the youth's uprising and
steer it towards a different direction. Some groups
are fighting for a place in the limelight while others
are designating roles amongst themselves, either to
make personal gains or diminish calls for change. Each
is working according to its own agenda, and ulterior
motives. Some regime supporters reject change for fear
of losing the authority and gains they have
accumulated. Others call for moderate changes that
would meet some of the youth's demands, whilst
maintain the existing regime in one way or another.
Manoeuvres are also evident among the ranks of
opposition parties and powers – although in reality
some could hardly be described as anti-government.
They are seeking to control the reins of the youth's
uprising and reap its rewards, even if that means
excluding the youth from the current national
dialogue, and keeping them on the streets as a
pressure card. It is difficult to understand the
contradiction in the opposition's stance, and the
inconsistency of its statements. It is also difficult
to explain the overnight switch in the discourse of
some of those who were, until very recently, staunch
supporters of the regime. Amazingly, amidst this vague and confusing
political arena, some are claiming to be
representatives of the Tahrir Square youth. Then we
hear from those camping in the Square, who say they
have no idea who the government is engaging in
dialogue with. Are there now attempts to fragmentize
and disperse this youth movement, after several failed
attempts to drive them out of Tahrir Square, whether
by hiring thugs to storm the protests, or by sniper
fire? Is the regime so adamant on plugging its ears,
ignoring the voices in the street and their call for
change? Will these tactics maintain Egypt's stability
and restore its strength? The movements of opposition parties are bound to
raise many questions, now that it has become clear
they are manoeuvring for political gains. There is a
race amongst them to arrive at the negotiating table,
despite a lack of any clear position, and the
deliberate exclusion of some voices and faces. Because
of these manoeuvres, the political powers supposedly
representing the opposition have failed to form a
unified negotiating front, which speaks in one voice
and adopts the youth's demands. Forming such a front
is the best way to reach clear and quick solutions,
guarantee a smooth and peaceful transition, and take a
real step towards meeting the demands for change. Everyone, including the Egyptian government,
recognises there is a crisis of confidence between the
protestors and the regime. There is also a strong
feeling of discontent among the protestors, regarding
attempts being made to hijack or abort their uprising.
Such a situation is not conducive towards successful
dialogue, and could complicate matters further,
preventing meaningful solutions under a tight
deadline. Under these conditions, efforts to amend the
constitution, arrange for a transitional period,
prepare for presidential elections guaranteeing a
peaceful transfer of power, and further approaches
toward democracy, would undoubtedly fail. The
aspirations of Khalid Said and Wael Ghoneim's
generation, who sacrificed and endangered their lives
to effect change, and who awakened everyone from their
deep slumber with a mass uprising, must be fulfilled.
There are people in the Arab World, and abroad, who
fear the success of the popular uprisings in Tunisia
and Egypt, and particularly so in Egypt. They are
afraid that the repercussions of such events could
spread, and change the political scene in the region.
However, there is another possibility that we must not
overlook. Aborting the call for change in Tunisia or
Egypt won't necessarily mean that stability and
security are restored. In fact, matters will most
probably take a turn for the worse, particularly as
the fear barrier has now been broken, and repression
tactics have been foiled, even if they enjoyed
relative success for a while. |