24 January 2016By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
Ten months after the outbreak of war in Yemen, there are three powers
positioned in the country. The first is the government and the Arab coalition
forces, the second is the Houthis and the ousted president Saleh, and the
third is Al-Qaeda. What has changed since then is the failure of the Houthis
and Saleh to seize power in the country and the government's return to Yemen
after it had lost the last inch of the country.
Ten months may not seem long in the age of wars but it is enough to conclude
that Yemen will not be left to the Iranians to impose its Houthi proxy and the
personal wishes of Saleh to take control of the authority. In practice, the
war changed the map of power on the ground enough to understand the future and
may force the exhausted rebel forces to raise the white flag soon.
The time may be appropriate to test the desire of every Yemeni power for a
peaceful solution outside Swiss hotels which have become occupied by
delegations sent regarding other conflicts. What prompted me to think about
this is what my friend, the former Yemeni ambassador Mustafa Al-Nu'man, wrote
in the Okaz newspaper about what he called the ''third Yemeni party''.
Ambassador Al-Numan, whom I met at the last Davos Forum in Switzerland,
believes that there are a number of respected Yemeni figures who are not
involved in the conflict and can play a positive role in solving the crisis by
mediating in order to end the conflict. His diagnosis of the war in Yemen is
that the fighting powers, in general, may not have enough political skill to
communicate and reach an understanding about a solution that will provide
safety to all and design an acceptable political plan.
The ''third Yemeni party'' consists of Yemeni leaders who were detached from the
crisis and who can act as a bridge between the different parties. Potential
candidates include Major General and former chief of staff Hussein Al-Masory,
the former deputy prime minister Ahmed Sofan, the former minister Mohammad Al-Tayeb
and of course ambassador Al-Numan.
Will a team like this be successful in creating dialogue and carrying messages
that produce political solutions before the war completes its first year?
There is no harm in active and diplomatic parallel lines and independent and
military negotiations. What is important is that a solution is reached to end
the state of rebellion and implement the Security Council Resolution that
strives to achieve stability and unity in Yemen and establish an effective
system. It is not necessary to wait for the raising of the white flag whilst
there is a desire to achieve these aims. Ultimately, the aim of war is to
achieve peace by restoring legitimacy.
There is no doubt that the war in Yemen and the pain that it has caused
prevented the rebellious bilateral Houthi – Saleh alliance from taking control
of power. If they had succeeded, Yemen would have turned into an arena of
revenge and sectarian and tribal conflicts. Perhaps if the Gulf countries had
not intervened in Yemen, it would have ended up exactly like Somalia which was
left to civil wars and famine and where a civil war has been going on for
about 20 years.
Yes, there is a Saudi-Iranian war in Yemen but the justifications for it are
different. Iran provides for the Houthis and it is in its interests to create
chaos which will make Yemen a platform for destruction aimed at Yemeni groups
and Saudi Arabia.
As for Saudi Arabia and the other GCC countries, their only interest is
achieving stability for their Yemeni neighbour because this guarantees
stability for them. This is a fact that the ousted president Saleh could not
comprehend a year ago. He thought that toppling the government would lead to
Gulf countries closing their embassies in Sana'a, packing their bags and
leaving for their home countries. This is why Saleh risked all of his looted
money and material to lead a rebellion against the legitimate government in
alliance with Iranian militias. He was surprised that the Saudi government
took action to support the legitimate government and launched a large war
against him. As for the Houthis, as a militia affiliated to Iran, they were
given a difficult task and if it was not for Saleh's forces, they would not
have reached further than the city of Omran.
The war has changed concepts as well as the map and the rebels have realised
that the coalition possesses the determination and the ammunition to continue
fighting at a time when Saleh's situation has taken a turn for the worse. This
will force him and his leaders to occupy cellars after living in his castle.
Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the
former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers
of Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate degree in mass
communications. He has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs. He
is currently based in Dubai.
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EsinIslam.Com
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