Lebanon's Long Governmental Wait
01 January 2017
By Eyad Abu Shakra
Against the background of Syria's debacle, Lebanon continues to wait for the
birth of its first government (cabinet) under its new president Michel Aoun.
Yet, Lebanon, long regarded by Hafez Al-Assad, and later Bashar Al-Assad,
until 2011 as 'Syria's soft belly', looks in better shape than its 'Older
Sister'. There is no fully-fledged destructive war here. No declared and
systematic sectarian displacement carried out by force with official
international blessings. And no need for the East and West to call a common
strategy for confronting extremist groups, operating in territories controlled
and occupied by militias unopposed by regional and international powers, as a
result of limiting the anathema of terror and terrorism to a single
confessional strain while overlooking others.
Thus, Lebanon looks 'great' compared with Syria; however, this should not mean
that things are really moving in the right direction, especially in the light
of the failure of Prime Minister-designate Saad Al-Hariri to form a new
government.
When Hezbollah nominated Aoun, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, as
Lebanon's presidential candidate, and forced a presidential 'vacuum' for
almost two and a half years until it got its way, opinions were divided on its
choice of candidate, its suspension of the elections process, and the way it
would deal with 'President' Aoun!
Initially, before the February 2006 'agreement' between the two sides,
Hezbollah was not a great fan of Aoun, and neither did the hard-line Christian
Maronite leader believe much in Hezbollah's policies of 'Resistance'. Later,
however, both decided to bury the hatchet and enter a 'marriage of
convenience' against the anti-Tehran and anti-Damascus '14 of March' loose
coalition, born in the aftermath of the assassination of the former Prime
Minister Rafic Al-Hariri in February 2005 against what was described as the
'Lebanese-Syrian Security Regime', and Hezbollah's open support of the Al-Assad
regime- then widely accused of carrying out the assassination.
Since February 2006, Aoun has been providing almost full backing to
Hezbollah's policies and actions, inside and outside Lebanon; while the latter
has turned its 'agreement' with Aoun into a blueprint of its dealings with
Lebanon's religious sects. Hezbollah through its leaders and mouthpieces has
been citing its 'respect of the powerbase's wishes' within the Christian
communities for Aoun to justify its all-out support for him; and thus
regarding Aoun as the 'most popular Christian Lebanese leader' the Shi'ite
powerful militia claimed it was abiding with the spirit of the country's
unwritten 'National Pact'.
This however, has been rarely practiced by Hezbollah toward other sects,
namely the Sunnis and Druze. The pro-Iran powerful militia brought down the
national unity cabinet headed by the leading Sunni Saad Al-Hariri in January
2011, and formed an alternative cabinet with poor Sunni cover. On the Druze
front, it not only pushed to 'neutralise' the supreme Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt, but also 'invented' alternatives even to his traditional competitor
Emir Talal Arslan, in case Arslan decided to side with Jumblatt on issues
vital to their small community.
The Syrian Uprising, then civil war and international intervention, were bound
to profoundly affect the Lebanese. As the weak independent capabilities of
Bashar Al-Assad's regime became clear for all to see, Iran's plans for
regional and sectarian hegemony became clearer; best manifested in Hezbollah's
direct involvement in combat duties inside Syria under the guidance of Iran's
IRGC. Later on, the regional and international picture became clearer still
with the signing of JCPOA (i.e. the Iran – American nuclear deal), and
Russia's direct military intervention in support of Al-Assad with Washington's
silent approval.
In such a scenario, Lebanon became a 'side show', a refuge for the displaced,
and a land controlled by the illegitimate forces of the 'Status Quo' which
until recently were – along with their sponsor, Iran – accused of aiding and
perpetrating terrorism.
Furthermore, the crippling of political activity entwined with economic
collapse and acute Shi'i – Sunni polarization, both inside and outside
Lebanon, have necessitated some sort of a political deal. However, Lebanon's
internal problems neither disappeared by making Aoun president and Al-Harari
prime minister, nor has the state's wellbeing been assured given the fact that
some local players continue to reject the 'Taif Accords' and conspire against
them.
Hence, Lebanon remains a 'soft belly' although its fragility has now spilled
over across its border and spread into its region. This is making more
difficult the job of a political class that proves everyday it does not
believe in coexistence, is not brave enough to be frank about it, is unable to
read the changing scene and seems unable to learn from past mistakes.
Eyad Abu Shakra is the managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat. He has been with
the newspaper since 1978.
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