The Bush administration is uncertain how to deal with Moqtada Al Sadr, the charismatic but mercurial Iraqi Shiite cleric, who has surfaced once again after an absence of four months (reportedly in neighboring Iran) when the American "surge" was launched in Baghdad.
A consistent critic of the US occupation, Al Sadr repeated his call in last Friday's sermon in his hometown of Al Koufa, near Najaf, for an American withdrawal from Iraq and vowed to defend Iraqi Sunnis and Christians, a turnaround from what his strong Al Mahdi Army has been reportedly doing in the strife-torn country.
His re-emergence with a new political platform, seen as an attempt by the radical cleric to reassert his leadership, has raised American "hope(s) that his return will contribute to the ongoing dialogue that we've already established and had going on for now for several months with the Shiite groups in Iraq".
That comment from Major-General William Caldwell, the chief spokesman for the Multi-National Forces in Iraq has surprised, among others, his interviewer, CNN anchorman Wolf Blitzer, a onetime correspondent for the Israeli Jerusalem Post. The spokesman revealed that the "dialogue ... has been going on for several months and has been proving very positive" and expressed hope that Al Sadr would "help facilitate that and enhance that further".
Al Sadr is the same man who three years ago faced an arrest warrant in connection with the murder of Shiite Grand Ayatollah Abdul Majid Al Khoi at a mosque in Najaf. But the US command in Iraq has never chose to act on that warrant apparently for fear of serious repercussions. Six members of Al Sadr's party were until recently serving in the cabinet of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki.
This exceptional treatment by the Bush administration of Al Sadr contrasts sharply with its disappointing attitude towards Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that has won a national election and has maintained a ceasefire with the Israelis for many months. The United States and the European Union as well as Israel have unwisely refused to establish contact with the popular Palestinian group because of its "terrorist" record, which is not any different from what the Al Mahdi Army has done in Baghdad. If anything, their action extended the turmoil in the volatile region.
Naturally, the Bush administration's volte face is obviously linked to its failure in Iraq and the outraged feeling among Americans over the futile actions of the administration. Thus, the administration would naturally welcome any indirect assistance, even from Al Sadr himself, to get it out of this Iraqi quagmire. But would the US be willing to undertake a similar approach with Hamas? The answer, some may argue, will depend on Israel and its influential allies in Washington.
At present, Israel is facing a serious government shakeup now the Labor Party, a coalition partner, has just overthrown its leader - Defense Minister Amir Peretz - in the just-concluded party elections. The two candidates in the upcoming runoff - Ehud Barak and Ami Ayalon - have their own agenda which most likely will not favour the continued presence of the discredited prime minister, Ehud Olmert.
Olmert, like Bush, may in the end welcome a face-saving approach from Hamas to elevate his standing. Hamas has just voiced willingness to accept a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip provided it also includes the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and at the same time some Israeli parliamentarians are suggesting the placement of a multi-national force in the volatile Gaza Strip. Whatever is the fate of these proposals, the fact that the two parties have come up with seemingly logical suggestions is encouraging.
Israel in the meantime has yet to respond positively to the Arab Peace Initiative - an issue that remarkably has drawn criticism from two hardline Jewish supporters of Israel - Elie Wiesel, the Nobel Peace Laureate and Abe Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation league.
Foxman, according to an American Jewish paper, has "publicly expressed concern over Israel's failure to present a convincing case for its desire to make progress on the peace track". The Forward, an American Jewish paper, has reported that Wiesel noted "apparent contradictions" in Olmert's statements at a recent conference in Petra, Jordan, contrasting the Israeli prime minister's insistence that "all the Palestinian factions agree to make peace with Israel with the fact that not all Israeli political parties agree to establish a two-state solution leading to Palestinian statehood".
Optimists see an opportunity for some positive Israeli action that may come on June 7 when Olmert meets with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. But this can be the case if there is much-needed arm-twisting by the Bush administration along its new thinking towards Iraq's Al Sadr. Just as Washington now realizes that there is no military solution in Iraq, Israel likewise needs to realize that its indiscriminate air strikes in Gaza have yet to lead to any settlement.