Posted By Liam Bailey
The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) did
something that many before them had
tried and failed. They brought peace
and security from complete chaos and
total violence in areas under their
control in southern and central
Somalia after July 2006. For the first
time in fifteen years children could
go to school safely and hospital's
could treat the sick instead of
wounded. And with no gunmen on the
streets to charge truck drivers fees
for safe passage food prices dropped.
The previous 15 years of violence had
filled a power vacuum left by the
ousting of Dictator Siad Barre, as
Somalia's many warlords, clans and
sub-clans vied for a bigger piece of
the pie. The Islamic Courts within the
union that were predominant in their
sweep to power followed Salafism, a
hard-line strain of Islam widely
associated with extremism and
terrorism. Thus the UIC became another
target under the War on Terror. But
perhaps with Somalia's history of
inter-clan violence an extreme faith
in the country's religion is needed to
supersede the tribal traditions of
warlord rule.
The current violence is a good example
of this. On the surface it is a UIC
insurgency waging the holy war they
promised against the Transitional
Federal Government (TFG)and their
Ethiopian backers. In reality it is
more complex. The latest fighting has
been sparked by a government and
Ethiopian push to disarm Somalia ahead
of unification talks. Given Somalia's
history of tribal violence and being
ruled by the gun it is surely foolish
for the government to expect the
tribes to give up their arms before
any unification agreements have been
reached. This has made the insurgency
more popular than it neccesarily would
have been. The UIC is no doubt taking
a big part in the violence against the
government but perhaps an equal part
is other clans fighting to hold on to
their guns.
The TFG's leader and Somalia's
president Abdullahi Yusuf is a member
of the Darod clan. The other clans
believe he is favouring the Darod
economically and politically. The TFG
is made up of many warlords from other
tribes. As no unification agreements
have been reached and the clansmen's
loyalty is still with their clan
before the TFG, there is division
within the government. The saying
goes: divide and conquer. The TFG's
division would therefore explain why
the relatively unified UIC took
control of Somalia so easily.
It is a farce to expect rival warlords
and clansmen cobbled together in Kenya
as the TFG to govern Somalia without
any unification, after years of
inter-clan violence. The UIC is of
course made up of rival clans but they
have their extremist belief in the
Islamic faith in common, giving them a
unity which they have proven capable
of governance.
Somalia's Prime Minister is a member
of Mogadishu's most prominent, Hawiye
clan. The same clan that most of the
UIC come from. Hopes were raised of an
end to the recent violence when it was
reported that elders of the Hawiye
clan had met with TFG and Ethiopian
leaders and agreed a truce, whereby
forces from both sides would withdraw
from the front lines. Even if both
sides kept to their agreement it would
not have stopped the violence from any
of the other clans, sub-clans or
Hawiye members fighting with the UIC
and therefore not under the ceasefire.
The violence stopped for a short
period before resuming for a third day
of heavy clashes. Hawiye sub-clans
and/or militias, not consulted by the
elders before agreeing the ceasefire
and with competing interests are
reported to have been responsible for
the restart of fighting. The latest
violence has killed around 24 people
and hundreds have been wounded.
1500 Ugandan People's Defence Force
troops are in Somalia as the first
deployment of a planned 8000 African
Union force. It is unclear when troops
pledged by Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi and
Burundi will be deployed. At any rate
Somalis have a history of anger
against foreign forces on their soil,
as they showed with protests at the
outset of the Ethiopian invasion.
Their feelings toward the foreign
intervention were displayed again in
Mogadishu Mar 21., as an angry mob of
militiamen and civilians, including
women burned the bodies of uniformed
soldiers and dragged their corpses
through the streets in barbaric
jubilation. The scenes echoed the
bodies of U.S. soldiers dragged
through the Mogadishu streets in 1993
after their Black Hawk helicopter was
shot down in a failed attempt to
capture a warlord. Although reports
said the bodies were of two Ethiopian
and two TFG soldiers, neither the
Ethiopian military nor the TFG have
confirmed their troops were involved.
However the African Union has said its
troops were not active in the area.
The violence is not limited to the
capital, according to a Relief Web
report: One car was destroyed and at
least six people were injured March
18, when four cars transporting UN
staff from Baidoa to Mogadishu overran
a land mine near Afgoye checkpoint. It
is not clear whether the explosion was
targeted and no one was killed in the
attack. The Mogadishu-Beletweyne road
remains highly insecure due to
sporadic ambushes. Several other roads
remain unsafe, with a high number of
roadblocks on the road from Lower and
Middle Juba to Mogadishu.
In short, Somalia has returned to the
lawlessness and violence it was
suffering before the UIC uprising
mid-2006.
The U.N. and U.S. have praised the
TFG's scheduling of reconciliation
talks for April 19. However, many of
the UIC players considered vital for a
solution remain in exile in Yemen and
Europe. The powerful Ayr sub-clan,
thought responsible for much of the
UIC's military strength are also
claiming they have been excluded from
participating in the government, which
is dominated by rival clans. With so
many clans and sub-clans, so many
conflicting interests, a history of
failed negotiations, broken agreements
and such deep rooted hatred for the
government, it is unlikely
reconciliation talks called for by the
government will succeed, and if they
do it is doubtful the agreements will
be kept.
The UIC have proven they can stabilize
and govern Somalia. The insurgency's
growing popularity among Somalis
proves the Somali people didn't resent
the UIC's strict rule as much as they
do the current government. Instead of
reconciliation talks there should be a
vote of the Somali people. Call it a
referendum or an election, call it
what you like but give them their say.
It is the Somali people who have to
live under the rule of their
government and it is the Somali people
who should decide what that government
is. Certainly not people enjoying the
absolute freedom of a long successful
democracy.
Given that the only security Somalis
have enjoyed was under the UIC it is
likely they would vote their way. In
that vote they would also be achieving
what outside attempts to create a
central government had in the
Transitional National Government and
its successor the TFG, a movement
encompassing more than one Somali
clan. Where they succeed over the
failed attempts is the clans they
encompass have the power to pacify
Somalia.
The Somali people have suffered long
enough. Their suffering should not be
prolonged because their security
infringes on a war that has nothing to
do with them.
*Liam
Bailey is a U.K. freelance journalist
and publisher of the War
Pages blog. You can contact him by
E-mail.
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