| June 27, 2008 Robert Novak, in a
column on "Obamacons" (Obama-backing Republicans), says he expects a
high-profile defection:
Neither Powell, first-term secretary of state for George W.
Bush, nor Hagel, retiring after two terms as a U.S. senator from
Nebraska, has endorsed Obama. Hagel probably never will.
Powell probably will enter Obama's camp at a time of his own
choosing. The best bet is that neither of the two, both
of whom supported President Bush in 2000 and 2004, will back John
McCain in 2008.
Powell praised Obama back in February, saying, "Mr. Obama has
done an incredible job . . . He has energized a lot of people in
America. He has energized a lot of people around the world." Some
have even suggested Obama pick Powell as his VP.
The Obamacons Who Worry McCain
What is an "Obamacon?" The phrase surfaced in January to describe
British conservatives entranced by Barack Obama. On March 13 the
American Spectator broadened the term to cover all "conservative
supporters" of the Democratic presidential candidate. Their ranks,
though growing, feature few famous people. But looming on the
horizon are two big potential Obamacons: Colin Powell and Chuck
Hagel.
Neither Powell, first-term secretary of state for George W. Bush,
nor Hagel, retiring after two terms as a U.S. senator from Nebraska,
has endorsed Obama. Hagel probably never will. Powell probably will
enter Obama's camp at a time of his own choosing. The best bet is
that neither of the two, both of whom supported President Bush in
2000 and 2004, will back John McCain in 2008.
Powell, Hagel and lesser-known Obamacons harbor no animosity toward
McCain. Nor do they show much affection for the rigidly liberal
Obama. The Obamacon syndrome is based on hostility to Bush and his
administration and on revulsion over today's Republican Party. The
danger for McCain is that desire for a therapeutic electoral
bloodbath could get out of control.
That danger was highlighted in a June New Republic article on "The
rise of the Obamacons" by supply-side economist Bruce Bartlett, who
was a middle-level official in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush
administrations. He expressed "disgust with a Republican Party that
still does not see how badly George W. Bush has misgoverned this
country" -- echoing his scathing 2006 book, "Impostor: How George W.
Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy." While
Bartlett says "I'm not ready to join the other side," his anti-Bush
furor characterizes the Obamacons.
The prototypal Obamacon may be Larry Hunter, recognized inside the
Beltway as an ardent supply-sider. When it became known recently
that Hunter supports Obama, fellow conservatives were stunned.
Hunter was fired as U.S. Chamber of Commerce chief economist in 1993
when he would not swallow Clinton administration policy, and he
later joined Jack Kemp at Empower America (ghostwriting Kemp's
column). Explaining his support for the uncompromisingly liberal
Obama, Hunter blogged on June 6: "The Republican Party is a dead
rotting carcass with a few decrepit old leaders stumbling around
like zombies in a horror version of 'Weekend With Bernie,'
handcuffed to a corpse."
While he never would use such language, Colin Powell is said by
friends to share Hunter's analysis of the GOP. His tenuous 13-year
relationship with the Republican Party, following his retirement
from the Army, has ended. The national security adviser for Ronald
Reagan left the present administration bitter about being ushered
out of the State Department a year earlier than he wanted. As an
African American, friends say, Powell is sensitive to racial attacks
on Obama and especially on Obama's wife, Michelle. While McCain
strategists shrug off defections from Bruce Bartlett and Larry
Hunter, they wince in anticipating headlines generated by Powell's
expected endorsement of Obama.
While Powell may not be a legitimate Obamacon because he never was
much of a conservative, that cannot be said for his close Senate
friend Hagel. He has built a solidly conservative record as a
senator, but mutual friends see no difference between him and the
general on Iraq, Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, George W. Bush and the
Republican Party. In a speech today at the Brookings Institution,
Hagel is expected to urge Obama and McCain to reach out to each
other. At the least, Hagel is not ready to strap on armor for his
longtime political ally and office neighbor, John McCain.
Reports listing additional Obamacons do not add up to tides of
conservative Republicans leaving their party. Former Federal Reserve
chairman Paul Volcker is a Democrat who entered government in the
Kennedy administration. Conservative commentator Armstrong Williams
(an African American) leads me to believe that he has no intention
of endorsing Obama. Conservative author Richard J. Whalen is for
Obama because he sees a dead Republican Party, but he also was for
John Kerry in 2004.
Nevertheless, Obamacons -- little and big -- are reason for concern
by McCain. They also should cause soul-searching at the Bush White
House about who made the Republican Party so difficult a place for
Republicans to stay. |
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