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Obama Halves Gallup Daily Tracking
Poll Peak For The First Time |
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September 1, 2008 Barack Obama met the 50
percent threshold for the first time Tuesday
in the Gallup daily tracking poll, a symbolic
hurdle that until now had eluded the
Democratic nominee.
The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that
since the conclusion of the Democratic
convention, Obama has risen 5 percentage
points in the polls and now leads John McCain
50 percent to 42 percent. That represents a
positive turn for Obama, after a couple of
days in which he appeared to have peaked at
the 49 percent mark while McCain was showing
slight improvements.
The survey indicates that Obama’s overall
post-Democratic National Convention bounce now
appears to be roughly at par with the norm of
past conventions. Though smaller than several
of the sizable bounces of recent decades, the
new polling suggests that perhaps the
Democratic convention bounce has yet to
subside.
While an improvement from 49 percent to 50
percent is statistically insignificant, the 50
percent mark holds significance for a party
seeking to win its first majority since 1976,
when Jimmy Carter won with 50.1 percent.
Polling will likely remain in flux until early
next week, after the conclusion of the
Republican National Convention. On Saturday,
Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8
percentage points. By Monday, that lead had
shrunk to 5 points. Today it returned to 8.
Obama and McCain were evenly split at 45
percent prior to the Democratic convention,
according to Gallup. Should Obama maintain a
5-point bounce in the polls, that would meet
the 5- to 6-point norm earned by a typical
party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since
1964.
That also means, however, that Obama’s
historic acceptance speech before more than
80,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver
Thursday night, a political event seen by
about 40 million television viewers, has not
vaulted him above the norm of past nominees.
But Obama now has his firmest political
footing of the campaign, according to the
polls. Daily tracking polls by Gallup and
Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that Obama has
taken his greatest lead since the beginning of
the general election in June when Obama
clinched the Democratic nomination.
Rasmussen also recorded an uptick in Obama’s
standing on Tuesday, and he now leads McCain
51 percent to 45 percent.
CBS News reported Monday that Obama is ahead
in its poll, 48 percent to 40 percent, a
3-point increase in Obama’s standing compared
with its poll prior to the Democratic
convention.
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