Showdown With Mubarak - Egypt’s Presidency And What The US Can Do

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AwqafAfrica is in association with www.esinislam.com, www.islamafrica.com, and www.islamicafrica.com <<>> African Muslim Directories <<>> If you reside in the UK, the US, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, or Australia and require FREE Islamic ritual services including Marriage, Newborn Baby Ceremonies, Funerals, etc. send your requests to: ritualservices@esinislam.com <<>>> Free Muslim visits in Johannesburg, Cape Town, Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Accra, Cotonou, Port Novo, Freetown, Abidjan, Dakar, Khartoum, Nairobi, Addis Ababa, Harare, or Kinshasa visits@esinislam.com <<>> FREE Translations English-Arabic-English and French-Arabic-French are available for mosques, Islamic centres, and Muslim organizations based in Africa or serving the Africans abroad: translator@esinislam.com <<>> Free Islamic And Arabic Studies For The African Muslims And African American Muslims <<>> Islam In Africa <> Islam In America <> Islam In Europe <> Islam In Asia <<>> Join us celebrating Islam in Africa 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Somalia Muslims or Somali Muslims | Muslims of Somalia and Muslims in Somalia Islam in South Africa Muslims or South African Muslims or Southern African Muslims | Muslims of South African Or Muslims Of Southern Africa Or Muslims in Southern Africa <> <> Islam in Sudan Muslims or Sudanese Muslims | Muslims of Sudan and Muslims in Sudan <> <> Islam in Swaziland Muslims or Swazi Muslims | Muslims of Swaziland and Muslims in Swaziland <> Islam in Tanzania Muslims or Tanzanian Muslims | Muslims of Tanzania and Muslims in Tanzania <> Islam in Togo Muslims or Togolese Muslims | Muslims of Togo and Muslims in Togo <> Islam in Uganda Muslims or Ugandan Muslims | Muslims of Uganda and Muslims in Uganda <> Islam in Zambia Muslims or Zambian Muslims | Muslims of Zambia and Muslims in Zambia <> Islam in Zimbabwe Muslims or Zimbabwean Muslims | Muslims of Zimbabwe and Muslims in Zimbabwe <> Islam in African Muslims || African Mosques || African Muslim Organizations || African Muslim Colleges || 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Novo, Freetown, Abidjan, Dakar, Khartoum, Nairobi, Addis Ababa, Harare, or Kinshasa visits@esinislam.com <<>> FREE Translations English-Arabic-English and French-Arabic-French are available for mosques, Islamic centres, and Muslim organizations based in Africa or serving the Africans abroad: translator@esinislam.com <<>> Free Islamic And Arabic Studies For The African Muslims And African American Muslims <<>> Islam In Africa <> Islam In America <> Islam In Europe <> Islam In Asia <<>> Join us celebrating Islam in Africa Muslims or African Muslims | Muslims of Africa and Muslims in Africa Islam in Angola Muslims or Angolan Muslims | Muslims of Angola and Muslims in Angola <>Islam in Benin Muslims or Dahome Muslims | Muslims of Benin and Muslims in Benin <> Islam in Botswana Muslims or Boswanan Muslims | Muslims of Botswana and Muslims in Botswana <> Islam in Burkina Faso Muslims or Burkinan Muslims | Muslims of Burkinafaso and Muslims in Burkinafaso <> Islam in Burundi Muslims or Burundian Muslims | Muslims of Burundi and Muslims in Burundi <> Islam in Cameroon Muslims or Cameroonian Muslims | Muslims of Cameroon and Muslims in Cameroon <> Islam in Cape Verde Muslims or Capean Muslims | Muslims of Cape Verde and Muslims in Cape Verde <> Islam in Central Africa Muslims or Central African Muslims | Muslims of Central Africa and Muslims in Central Africa <> Islam in Chad Muslims or Chadian Muslims | Muslims of Chad And Muslims in Chad <> Islam in Comoros Muslims or Comorian Muslims | Muslims of Comoros and Muslims in Comoros <> Islam in Congolese (DRC Kinshasa) Muslims or Congolese (DRC Kinshasa) Muslims | Muslims of Congolese (DRC Kinshasa) and Muslims in Congolese (DRC Kinshasa) <> Islam in Congo (Brazzaville) Muslims or Congolese (Brazzaville) Muslims | Muslims of Congo (Brazzaville) and Muslims in Congo (Brazzaville) <> Islam in Djibouti Muslims or Djiboutian Muslims | Muslims of Djibouti and Muslims in Djibouti <> Islam in Equatorial Guinea Muslims or Equatorial Guinean Muslims | Muslims of Equatoria Guinea And Muslims in Equatoria Guinea <> Islam in Eritrea Muslims or Eritrean Muslims | Muslims of Eritrea and Muslims in Eritrea <> Islam in Ethiopia Muslims or Ethiopian Muslims | Muslims of Ethiopia and Muslims in Ethiopia <> Islam in Gabon Muslims or Gabonese Muslims | Muslims of Gabon and Muslims in Gabon <> Islam in Gambia Muslims or Gambian Muslims | Muslims of Gabia and Muslims in Gambia <> Islam in Ghana Muslims or Ghanaian Muslims | Muslims of Ghana and Muslims in Ghana <> Islam in Guinea (Conakry) Muslims or Guinean (Conakry) Muslims | Muslims of Guinea (Conakry) and Muslims in Guinea (Conakry) <> Islam in Guinea Bissau Muslims or Bissauan Muslim or Bissawean Muslims | Muslims of Guinea and Muslims In Guinea <> Islam in Ivory Coast Muslims or Ivorian Muslims | Muslims of Ivory Coast and Muslims in Ivory Coast <> Islam in Kenya Muslims or Kenyan Muslims | Muslims of Kenya and Muslims in Kenya <> Islam in Lesotho Muslims or 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Showdown With Mubarak - Egypt’s Presidency And What The US Can Do

November 24, 2008

The countdown to the most important event for the future of the Middle East has begun. In 2011, the term of President Hosni Mubarak (in power since 1981) will end and Egyptians will vote for a new president of the republic. Mubarak, who would be 83 then, is unlikely to seek another term. Despite the various undemocratic succession scenarios under debate - the ascent to power of Mubarak"s son Gamal, that of an unknown military official, or that of another official close to Mubarak - the presidential election will constitute a watershed one way or the other for the future of democracy in the Middle East.

So far, the political situation inside Egypt remains a mixture of stalemate, turmoil, and fear of what lies ahead. The Egyptian government has become clumsy in dealing with the sort of internal problems it used to handle easily, to the extent that the army had to step in to resolve recent bread shortages. In the words of strategic expert Diaa Rashwan, this crisis appears to be the result of "conflicts among opposing wings in the [National Democratic] [P]arty and the political system, each of whom wants to embarrass the other in the eyes of the public."

The struggle for the Egyptian presidency is so intense because of the extensive powers the office enjoys. There are 35 constitutional articles that delineate presidential powers, which include appointing the Cabinet and convening the upper and lower houses of Parliament - and dissolving them whenever the president pleases. Moreover, the president heads the Court of Cassation and the Supreme Council of Police as well as being the commander in chief of the armed forces.

The Obama administration must be aware of the critical phase through which Cairo is passing. It must also know that if the United States claims that it is committed to supporting democratic change in the Arab world, then this is a historic opportunity - which will not recur - to restore its credibility in the eyes of the Arab citizenry. In dealing with Egyptian succession, the US has an opportunity to contribute constructively to the creation of a model of democratic governance in the Arab world"s most populous nation, a nation that is accustomed to being the starting point of shifts that have changed the region, most notably the decision of late President Anwar Sadat to sign a peace agreement with Israel.

The past eight years of US-Egyptian relations provide ample lessons about how to promote democracy (and how not to) in Egypt:

First, the US in the near future must be pragmatic in dealing with certain realities that cannot be changed at present, notably the candidates for the presidential election that will be held in September 2011. Washington should not attempt to advance one candidate over another or involve itself in any of the scenarios mentioned above. This is the exclusive concern of Egyptian voters.

What the US should do is deal with the issue of the future of the Egyptian presidency in two phases: before and after the election. Before the election, Washington should stress the importance of having the next Egyptian president chosen in transparent elections - despite the extremely limited choice of candidates - that the judiciary and civil society are permitted to oversee. After the election, Washington must support Egyptian demands to limit presidential terms to two, which will increase prospects for the peaceful alternation of power and allow alternative political forces to compete in future elections. Without presidential term limits, democratic reform in Egypt will be exceptionally difficult. Agreeing to such limits would be an important way for the new Egyptian president to demonstrate his seriousness about continuing political reform.

The new US president should realize that there is no reason why pressure on Egypt to undertake political reform should damage cooperation between the two countries at the regional level. For example, at the height of the Bush administration"s pressure on Egypt for political reform in 2004-2005, Egypt sent an ambassador to Baghdad, the first Arab country to do so after the fall of Saddam Hussein"s regime. In any case, Egypt"s regional role has declined due primarily to internal political deadlock; a reinvigoration of political life in Egypt might allow it to reclaim its regional role in dealing with issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and reconciliation efforts in Lebanon.

As part of a new, more pragmatic approach, the Obama administration should finally abandon the fear that democratic reform in Egypt will result in the Muslim Brotherhood coming to power. Constitutional amendments passed in 2007 will prevent this. The Muslim Brotherhood cannot nominate any of its leaders to run for the presidency because it does not have a political party, and a Brotherhood candidate could not obtain enough votes in elected bodies to qualify to run as an independent candidate per stipulations in the Egyptian Constitution.

Finally, the new US administration should devote special attention to promoting the participation of youth in political parties and civil society. Ever since the US began its support of democratic reform in Egypt, it has ignored a dangerous demographic reality: according to official statistics, young people make up 40 percent of Egypt"s inhabitants at a time when the country suffers from a severe lack of political participation.

Due to the absence of channels to direct this human capital, there has recently been an unprecedented rise in political activity among Egyptian youth on the Internet. According to government statistics, there are more than 160,000 Egyptian blogs, constituting a vast field of virtual political participation. The general strike that occurred on April 6 was organized on the internet by young people and included 85,000 participants, a majority under the age of 30. This is a clear indication of Egyptian young people"s thirst to participate in political life. Will American aid programs find ways to respond to this call? This would be one of the most important ways for Barack Obama to support democracy in Egypt and, through Egypt, the entire Arab world.