8 April 2009

Algiers - Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika hopes to use his likely third term to end the violence still troubling his country, but whether he can do that without granting a political voice to former rebels is doubtful.

Bouteflika is expected to win Thursday's presidential vote by a comfortable margin - recognition, his supporters say, of his achievements in restoring stability after a decade-long civil conflict.

Offshoots of the Islamist rebel groups that waged that conflict are now affiliated to al-Qaeda and mount sporadic attacks in Algeria.

Some believe Bouteflika's refusal to allow a return to politics by the leaders of the defunct Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) who fought the state in the 1990s undermines efforts to persuade the mostly younger remaining rebels to disarm.

The political ambition of the influential, middle-aged former rebels is undimmed.

No law exists to stop the former rebel leaders taking part in elections but over the years efforts by top FIS figures to run as candidates or form parties have in effect been blocked by the government.

"Obviously, not opening the political field to former Islamic militants will discourage al-Qaeda's rebels from accepting Bouteflika's amnesty offer," Boualem Ghomrassa, a security expert with Algerian daily El Khabar, said.

Four former leaders of the remnant insurgency who surrendered in 2005 and 2008 urged remaining rebels to join them.

"We invite you to join us and return to your families, who are waiting for you. Dear brothers and friends, don't miss this valuable opportunity," they said in a joint statement.

Bouteflika seems unlikely to make concessions to former rebels in the near future. With the security forces more firmly in control than in previous years and an election win all but assured, he is under little pressure to give ground.

Allowing the former rebels to re-enter political life would be a hugely symbolic step because it was precisely this issue which triggered the violent conflict in 1992.

Bouteflika helped steer the country out of the spiral of violence through a combination of uncompromising security measures and an amnesty to those rebels who were not deemed responsible for the worst acts of violence.

The former rebels - who deny any connection to the violence under way now - said they were angry that Bouteflika's national reconciliation process did little to give them a political voice. "If you want to convince al-Qaeda militants to lay down arms you must provide guarantees that the political space is not closed," said Madani Mezrag, former chief of the FIS's armed wing.

That view was echoed by another former rebel leader, Abdelhak Layada, a founder of the now disbanded Armed Islamic Group (GIA), blamed by the authorities for a series of massacres in the 1990s.

"We do support Abdelaziz Bouteflika, but in return we want to be allowed to have normal political activity. Closing the political arena is not fair and it is dangerous too," Layada said.