First of all, we must underline that the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia is still on track. True, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's speech to the Azerbaijani parliament and the press conference in Baku has produced an atmosphere that suggests the process has become more problematic, but the fact remains that the sides are committed to continuing the process. It was never going to be easy, and frankly, I was predicting opposition to Turkish-Armenian normalization to materialize even earlier. If it was going to be easy, this issue would have been resolved much earlier. The fact that the challenges appear to be greater for Turkish-Armenian normalization should not discourage us. Ultimately, the basic reasons why normalization is important remain there.

There is no doubt -- and recent weeks confirm that -- that Turkish-Armenian normalization contributes positively to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. From a selfish point of prioritization, we need to focus on Turkish-Armenian normalization and the Karabakh peace process simultaneously. When it comes to these two issues, one needs to see them as two parallel processes which are “mutually reinforcing each other.” There is a certain level of “interaction” between them, and from this perspective, they need to be monitored closely. It is satisfying that all three Minsk Group co-chairmen -- from France, Russia and the US -- have a common position on the Karabakh peace process and are working together to bring the sides closer to a roadmap for a solution. However, without the necessary political will in Baku and Yerevan, it will not suffice.

Having said that, we believe there is a historic opportunity at hand and almost all of the stars are lined up in the right place. Therefore, all parties must contribute to make this historic rapprochement a reality. A normalized South Caucasus will benefit Russia and Turkey as well as the three states of the South Caucasus. Russia particularly bears significant responsibility as it has great influence in Armenia and Azerbaijan and is a traditionally powerful actor in this region. The European Union and the United States also have an interest in seeing normalization and the peace process on Karabakh succeed. What needs to be done? First of all, there is no doubt that public opinion on all sides is having an unhelpful effect and therefore must be managed carefully. Secondly, there needs to be leadership and vision to carry these two very delicate processes through. Thirdly, the US, Russia and the EU must bring appropriate pressure to bear.

The coming weeks and months will be critical in seeing how this process will evolve. There is no doubt that no one will have the luxury of an extended vacation this summer. There needs to be hard work done this summer to hopefully facilitate a breakthrough.