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18 May 2009 Somalia's Al-Shabab militia have
recently captured several strategic towns near
Mogadishu and the group has gained popularity among
locals, observers said.
The onslaught has sent thousands of displaced
civilians on the run again and crippled aid operations
in the southern regions.
The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimates that 40,000
people have been displaced since fighting intensified
on 7 May. Other aid workers say at least 150 people
have been killed and more than 400 injured.
"The capture of Jowhar goes to the heart of the
problem in Somalia and demonstrates that indeed the
government in Mogadishu is by and large extremely
weak," Timothy Othieno, an analyst at the London-based
Overseas Development Institute, told IRIN.
"The government needs to engage with the people who
matter, including hardliners, who include Al-Shabab,"
he added.
Al-Shabab has continued to expand its control of
southern and central Somalia and captured Jowhar, 90km
north of Mogadishu, on 17 May.
According to a political observer in the capital,
however, the capture of Jowhar may be a sign that Al-Shabab
has peaked.
"In my opinion this is as far they will reach," he
said. "They have entered hostile territory, where they
are less popular than even the Ethiopians [troops]
were." The Ethiopian soldiers were invited by the
Transitional Federal Government in December 2006 to
help oust the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC).
Pointing to the recent defection of prominent
opposition figure Sheikh Yusuf "Indha Cadde" to the
government side, which he described as a boost, the
observer said Mogadishu's apparent weakness "may in
fact work to the benefit of the government by
galvanising supporters to take the offensive".
Separately, a regional analyst, who requested
anonymity, said: "The fall of Jowhar is less a sign of
Al-Shabab's strength than the government's apparent
disarray and paralysis.
"Either the opposition will maintain the
initiative, fatally eroding the government's authority
and cohesion; or the crisis will provoke a determined
and unified reaction from the government."
Al-Shabab is a militant Islamist group that was
part of the UIC and gained prominence during the
Ethiopian military presence.
Farhan Ali Mahamud, the Minister of Information,
told IRIN the government promoted reconciliation and
would pursue dialogue. "We will not undertake any
action that will add to the suffering of our people,"
he said.
"Their [Al-Shabab's] actions have led to the
population rallying around the government. Elders,
religious leaders and ordinary people are coming
forward to defend their government," he added.
The current fighting has had a devastating impact
on the population and the fall of Jowhar will make it
even more difficult to access those needing
assistance, aid workers said.
"For those who depend on them [aid workers] it
means no help for now," one Somali civil society
leader said.
EsinIslam.Com
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