|
2 August 2009 At this time it should be more
evident than ever that the global forces promoting
aggression on Iran are driven by Zionist motives,
however we still find attempts at redirection,
desperate baseless rationales for war are presented in
the hope of exonerating Israel and its supporters.
Preamble A number of commentators hold that the
primary reason america will attack Iran is to defend
the dollar as a global currency. Iran is alleged to be
threatening the role of the dollar as the sole
currency for oil transactions by setting up an oil
bourse on which oil can be bought and sold for euros –
just as Saddam threatened the dollar by selling Iraqi
oil for euros. Paradoxically, most of those supporting
such an hypothesis are anti-war commentators –both on
the left and the (paleo) right wing.
The big political danger of the petro-dollar
explanation of the war against Iran is that both left,
and right, wing anti-war activists are in effect
providing a justification for the war they are
supposedly seeking to avert. Although the proponents
of the petro-dollar hypothesis are anti-war, and
personally do not regard the petro-dollar hypothesis
as a justification for an american attack on Iran, it
has to be suggested that for many Americans this
hypothesis would provide sufficient justification for
war. If Americans are told that Iran is devaluing the
dollar in their pocket and threatening to bring about
the collapse of the American economy they are going to
want to know why America hasn't started bombing iran.
In their eyes, such a war would be self-defence,
defending their way of life. There is a considerable
danger that anti-war critics are going to find their
explanation for the likelihood of an American attack
on Iran is a self fulfilling prophesy which helps to
win popular support for the war.
This article highlights the commentators promoting the
petro-dollar hypothesis but does not seek to examine
the merits of this hypothesis.
The Economic Origins of the Petro-Dollar/ Oil Bourse
Thesis
The idea that iran's proposed oil bourse would pose a
threat to the global supremacy of the dollar started
primarily as an economic speculation.
William Clarke:
"The Iranians are about to commit an "offense" far
greater than Saddam Hussein's conversion to the euro
of Iraq's oil exports in the fall of 2000. Numerous
articles have revealed Pentagon planning for
operations against Iran as early as 2005. While the
publicly stated reasons will be over Iran's nuclear
ambitions, there are unspoken macroeconomic drivers
explaining the Real Reasons regarding the 2nd stage of
petrodollar warfare - Iran's upcoming euro-based oil
Bourse. In 2005-2006, The Tehran government developed
a plan to begin competing with New York's NYMEX and
London's IPE with respect to international oil trades
- using a euro-denominated international oil-trading
mechanism. This means that without some form of US
intervention, the euro is going to establish a firm
foothold in the international oil trade. Given U.S.
debt levels and the stated neoconservative project for
U.S. global domination, Tehran's objective constitutes
an obvious encroachment on U.S. dollar supremacy in
the international oil market." (William Clark 'The
Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target').
Krassimir Petrov:
"The Iranian government has finally developed the
ultimate "nuclear" weapon that can swiftly destroy the
financial system underpinning the American Empire.
That weapon is the Iranian Oil Bourse slated to open
in March 2006. Whatever the strategic choice, from a
purely economic point of view, should the Iranian Oil
Bourse gain momentum, it will be eagerly embraced by
major economic powers and will precipitate the demise
of the dollar." (Krassimir Petrov 'The Proposed
Iranian Oil Bourse').
Emilie Rutledge:
"This is primarily because of Iran's reported
intention to invoice energy contracts in euros rather
than dollars. The contention that this could unseat
the dollar's dominance as the de facto currency for
oil transactions may be overstated, but this has not
stopped many commentators from linking America's
current political disquiet with Iran to the proposed
Iranian Oil Bourse (IOB)." (Emilie Rutledge 'Iran - a
threat to the petrodollar? ').
The Left Wing, Anti-war Commentators who have taken up
the Oil Bourse Thesis
The left/anti-war wing of the political spectrum (in
both America and Britain) is so dominated by Zionist
sympathisers that it will support any fantasy to avoid
blaming Israel, the Jewish owned media in America, the
Jewish lobby in America, and the Israel firsters in
the Bush administration, for pushing America into an
invasion of Iraq and an attack on Iran. The petro-dollar
hypothesis has three main advantages for the Jewish
dominated left wing, anti-war movement. Firstly, it
reinforces the idea of an American empire thereby
implying that the Jews-only state in Palestine and the
Jewish lobby in America are insignificant agents of
American global power. Secondly, it suggests that
America's economic/financial interests are under
threat when they are not. Thirdly, it diminishes the
role played by Israel, the Jewish dominated American
media, the Jewish lobby in America, and the Israel
firsters in the Bush administration, in pushing
America into a war against Iran for the benefit of the
Jews-only state.
The Jewish dominated left finds it impossible to
countenance the idea that Jews have taken control of
the American political and economic system and are
using America's colossal military power to boost the
regional supremacy of the Jews-only state in Palestine
– at the expense of American interests. For the Jews
on the left, the petro-dollar hypothesis is invaluable
because it helps to protect Israel from adverse
political criticism.
The influence of Jews on the left/ anti-war movement
has become so poisonous and corrupting that in order
to protect the Jews-only state in Palestine they are
willing to promote a thesis which provides the
American public with a rationale for an attack on
Iran. Although left wing Jews pretend they are opposed
to the war against Iran many would secretly applaud
such a war because of the benefits it will bring to
the Jews-only state in Palestine - even though it will
have calamitous consequences on America's economic and
military interests.
Thierry Meyssan:
"Tehran is optimistic about putting in place an oil
spot market which doesn't accept dollars. This is
already working at an experimental stage. If no nation
has officially announced its participation, many are
encouraging participation through private companies
acting as intermediaries. Now, the dollar is an
overvalued currency whose value is maintained
essentially by its role as a petro-currency. Such a
spot market, once really up and running, would provoke
a collapse of the dollar, comparable to that of 1939,
even if its transactions only amounted to a tenth of
the world turnover. US power would be undermined by
the falling dollar and, in time, Israel would also
find itself bankrupt." (Thierry Meyssan 'The hidden
stakes in the Iran crisis').
Michael Keefer:
"The coming attack on Iran has nothing whatsoever to
do with concerns about the proliferation of nuclear
weapons. Its primary motive, as oil analyst William
Clark has argued, is rather a determination to ensure
that the U.S. dollar remains the sole world currency
for oil trading." (Michael Keefer 'Petrodollars and
Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: Understanding the
Planned Assault on Iran').
Geov Parrish:
"It preferably wants regime change before Tehran
follows through on its threat to convert the currency
in which it sells its oil from dollars to euros - a
precedent-setting move that could have dire global
consequences for the dollar as the international
currency of choice, and, hence, ugly long-term
consequences for the debt- and trade-deficit- riddled
American economy." (Geov Parrish 'The next war?').
Toni Straka:
"A decline of the dollar's position in oil trading
might also open the floodgates in other commodity
markets where the dollar is the medium of exchange but
where the US has only a minority market share." (Toni
Straka 'Killing the dollar in Iran').
The Laboratoire Européen
d'Anticipation Politique Europe:
"The Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique
Europe 2020, LEAP/E2020, now estimates to over 80% the
probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be
the beginning of the most significant political crisis
the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain
in 1989, together with an economic and financial
crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This
last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a
number of critical developments, resulting in an
acceleration of all the factors leading to a major
crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military
intervention against Iran. In case such an
intervention is conducted, the probability of a major
crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to
LEAP/E2020. The announcement of this crisis results
from the analysis of decisions taken by the two
key-actors of the main on-going international crisis,
i.e. the United States and Iran:
- on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of
opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March
20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers
of the region ; - on the other hand, there is the
decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop
publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on
the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from
March 23, 2006 onward1.
These two decisions constitute altogether the
indicators, the causes and the consequences of the
historical transition in progress between the order
created after World War II and the new international
equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the
USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity
will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and
imbalances accumulated since more than a decade
throughout the international system." (The Laboratoire
européen d'Anticipation Politique Europe 2020,
LEAP/E2020 'Iran-USA, beginning of a major world
crisis').
Heather Wokusch:
"In the eyes of the Bush administration, however,
Iran's worst transgression has less to do with nuclear
ambitions or anti-Semitism than with the petro-euro
oil bourse Tehran is slated to open in March 2006.
Iran's plan to allow oil trading in euros threatens to
break the dollar's monopoly as the global reserve
currency, and since the greenback is severely
overvalued due to huge trade deficits, the move could
be devastating for the US economy." (Heather Wokusch 'WWIII
or Bust: Implications of a US Attack on Iran').
While heather wokusch's sympathies clearly lay on the
left and are anti-war she does surprisingly manage to
slip an extreme right wing Zionist idea into her
article, "It would incite the Lebanese Hezbollah, an
ally of Iran's, potentially sparking increased global
terrorism." She even peddles Chomsky's argument that
Turkey will support a Zionist attack on Iran, "Given
what's at stake, few allies, apart from Israel, can be
expected to support a US attack on Iran. While Jacques
Chirac has blustered about using his nukes
defensively, it's doubtful that France would join an
unprovoked assault, and even loyal allies, such as the
UK, prefer going through the UN Security Council.
Which means the wildcard is Turkey. The nation shares
a border with Iran, and according to Noam Chomsky, is
heavily supported by the domestic Israeli lobby in
Washington, permitting 12% of the Israeli air and tank
force to be stationed in its territory. Turkey's
crucial role in an attack on Iran explains why there's
been a spurt of high-level US visitors to Ankara
lately, including Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice,
FBI Director Robert Mueller and CIA Director Porter
Goss. In fact, the German newspaper Der Spiegel
reported in December 2005 that Goss had told the
Turkish government it would be "informed of any
possible air strikes against Iran a few hours before
they happened" and that Turkey had been given a "green
light" to attack camps of the separatist Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK) in Iran "on the day in question."
(Heather Wokusch 'WWIII or Bust: Implications of a US
Attack on Iran').
The Right Wing, Anti-War Commentators who have taken
up the Oil Bourse Thesis
Ron Paul:
"It's not likely that maintaining dollar supremacy was
the only motivating factor for the war against Iraq,
nor for agitating against Iran. Though the real
reasons for going to war are complex, we now know the
reasons given before the war started, like the
presence of weapons of mass destruction and Saddam
Hussein's connection to 9/11, were false. The dollar's
importance is obvious, but this does not diminish the
influence of the distinct plans laid out years ago by
the neo-conservatives to remake the Middle East.
Israel's influence, as well as that of the Christian
Zionists, likewise played a role in prosecuting this
war." (Ron Paul 'The End of Dollar Hegemony').
Paul Sheldon Foote:
Paul sheldon foote accepts the iranian oil bourse
thesis. He circulated an article highlighting the
supposed dangers of an iranian bourse, "The
neo-conservatives (neo-Trotskyites) have been lying
about exporting American democracy and values. These
are some of the real reasons why these American
traitors want to bomb Iran and establish a
totalitarian regime for the Iranian Communist MEK (Rajavi
Cult) terrorists." (pfoote@fullerton. edu).
The Bush Regime's Disinterest in the Petro-Dollar/ Oil
Bourse Thesis to Promote a War against Iran
Despite the fact that both left and right wing
anti-war commentators believe that the real reason for
the war against Iran is the establishment of Iran's
oil bourse nobody in the Bush administration or the
neocon media has made any comment about it.
The Right Wing use of the Petro-Dollar/ Oil Bourse
Thesis to Promote a War against Iran
The petro-dollar hypothesis is a legitimate economic
speculation but politically it could be used to
provide America with a seemingly legitimate excuse for
a war against Iran. This section highlights the
commentators seeking to do precisely that.
Jerome R. Corsi:
The first right wing commentator to start using left
wing arguments to support the war is jerome r. corsi
who acknowledges the source of his ideas, "Many
administration critics argue today that the real
reason for invading Iraq in 2003 was not to remove WMD
from Iraq or to establish freedom but to preserve the
dollar dominance of the world's oil market. These same
critics argue today that the real reason for the
ramp-up of concern over Iran has nothing to do with
Iran's secret nuclear weapons program or with
President Ahmadinejad' s threats to destroy Israel but
everything to do with oil." (Jerome R. Corsi 'Will
Iran's 'petroeuro' threat lead to war?').
Corsi points out that, "Today, about 70 percent of the
world's international foreign currency reserves are
held in dollars. If the petroeuro begins to challenge
the petrodollar, this percentage could diminish
drastically. The United States depends on the dollar
foreign-currency reserves in order to sell the
Treasury debt that sustains budget deficits. What if
foreign-exchange portfolios from oil sales fell to 60
percent being held in dollars – would that cause a
crisis in the U.S. economy? Or would it take 55
percent? Most Americans are completely unaware of this
threat Iran represents to the U.S. economy." (Jerome
R. Corsi 'Will Iran's 'petroeuro' threat lead to
war?'). He points out the dangers of a challenge to
the petro-dollar to America's poor, "Clearly, any
threat to petrodollar holdings could undermine social
programs in the U.S., including Medicare and key
welfare programs such as Temporary Assistance for
Needy Families." (Jerome R. Corsi 'Will Iran's 'petroeuro'
threat lead to war?'). He concludes, "If the Iranians
persist in creating a market mechanism to settle world
oil transactions in the euro, the United States will
attack just to preserve the oil market for the dollar.
If Iran does open an oil bourse next month, we should
expect the warplanes will soon thereafter begin to
fly." (Jerome R. Corsi 'Will Iran's 'petroeuro' threat
lead to war?'). Corsi is the author of some highly
illuminating works such as co-authoring with John
O'Neill the No. 1 New York Times best-seller, "Unfit
for Command: Swift Boat Veterans Speak Out Against
John Kerry." and the sizzler, "Atomic Iran: How the
Terrorist Regime Bought the Bomb and American
Politicians. "
Critics of the Petrodollars
Hypothesis
Paul Craig Roberts:
"Will an Iranian oil bourse hurt the dollar? Not
really. The dollar's value depends on the world's
willingness to hold dollar denominated assets, not on
the currency used to pay oil bills. If payments were
not made in dollars, there could be a slight negative
impact on the dollar from countries reducing their
dollar cash balances and from the psychological shock
of pricing oil in Euros (or some other currency).
However, what really counts is what do the oil
producers, for example, do with the currency that they
are paid. If they are paid in dollars, but exchange
the dollars for Euros or Yen and purchase equities or
bonds or real estate in Europe and Japan, it doesn't
help that oil is billed in dollars. Or if they are
paid in Euros but exchange the Euros for dollars and
purchase US assets, it doesn't hurt that the oil is
billed in Euros." (Paul Craig Roberts 'Paul Craig
Roberts on the Iranian Oil Bourse'). "The negative
impact on the dollar will be far greater from the
additional red ink necessary to finance an attack on
Iran than from an oil bourse."
Jeff Blankfort:
Blankfort sent out the following email concerning
michael keefer's article 'Petrodollars and Nuclear
Weapons Proliferation' . "I am forwarding this, not
because I agree with the writers' premise, that there
will be a US attack on Iran -which I don't -but
because it has become typical of the scholarship, or
lack of same, that has come to distinguish what passes
for the opposition to US foreign policy. I am also
aware that it will be spread by unthinking,
well-meaning others as the gospel truth. Apart from
the glaring absence of any mention what effect an
attack on Iran would have on the situation in Iraq
which has a very long border with Iran, Keefer's
noting that "Michel Chossudovsky wrote in May 2005,
(about) widespread reports that George W. Bush had
"signed off on" an attack on Iran," is but one example
of the lack of scholarship as well as analysis on the
writer's part, a failing he shares with other pundits
who have taken that allegation seriously.
First, there were no "widespread reports" of Bush
taking this action. It was dropped as an aside by
Scott Ritter, in February, 2005, when he was speaking
in Seattle, and neither he nor anyone else has been
able to substantiate it. Why Ritter, an ex-Marine and
now a famous ex-WMD inspector (as well as a strong
supporter of Israel, who acknowledges having worked
with Israeli intelligence under Barak) would have
access to such information, he and no one else, did
not seem to trouble those who were sure that the US
was going to bomb Iran in 2005 as Ritter had stated
(and which he subsequently rationalized when it didn't
happen as did Chussodovsky in the statement below).
It is also curious that when Ritter recently stated
and has written that John Bolton's speech writer told
him that he has already written the speech Bolton will
make at the UN to justify a forthcoming US attack,
that no one, at least publicly, has wondered why this
speech writer would not only violate a speech writer's
required anonymity, but why he would tell this to
someone who appears, at least publicly, to oppose the
US war on Iraq.
What Keefer and the others never write about is
critical and its absence from their analysis is
inexcusable, namely, that given that a sizeable
segment of the Iraqi troops being trained in Iraq are
loyal to the pro-Iranian SCIRI and Dawa parties, both
of which were founded in Iran in 1982, it is logical
that their guns would be turned on the US and British
soldiers as Mokata Sadr has already promised to do
with his Mahdi army should the US attack Iran. Add to
this, the ability of Iran to block the Straits of
Hormuz. Blocked shipping in the Gulf would be
devastating for world oil supplies and for economies.
Gas at $8 a gallon is not what the voters want to
see." (Jeff Blankfort" jblankfort@earthlin k.net).
Chris Cook:
One of the financial directors involved in setting up
the bourse is amused at the prospect that he is about
to bring down the global economy, "It is therefore
with wry amusement that I have seen a myth being
widely propagated on the Internet that the genesis of
this "Iran bourse" project is a wish to subvert the US
dollar by denominating oil pricing in euros." (Chris
Cook 'What the Iran 'nuclear issue' is really about').
Mathew Maavak:
The iranians have not even decided on a marker for the
oil to be sold. "The Iranians so far have not
indicated whether they have come up with an oil marker
- a euro-denominated oil pricing standard - like the
dollar denominated West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI),
Norway Brent crude, and the UAE Dubai crude." (Mathew
Maavak 'Beware The Ides Of March').
Ann Berg:
"If you're waiting for the Iranian oil bourse (IOB) –
the proposed euro-based petroleum futures exchange in
Tehran – to overthrow the global dollar-based economy,
don't hold your breath. Establishing a futures-trading
mechanism to compete with the powerhouses of the New
York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) for the oil trade is
as probable as U.S. energy independence in our
lifetime." (Ann Berg 'Is the IOB DOA?: The Iranian oil
bourse: theory and reality').
EsinIslam.Com
|