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Zenawi: Will
he cut and run, or commit suicide?
Posted By Mohamed Hebaan
My assessment of this conflict is that of our war with the
Tigrayan regime will go through two more phases. The first
phase in which the Tigrayan occupation forces and their allies
had the upper hand lasted for two months.
The second phase that started in March 2007, in which the
fighting forces keep pushing one another back and forth is the
most critical phase of this conflict, and will last about one
year, though it could be over much earlier than that.
The third phase will be very short: It won’t take more
than two weeks. As everyday goes by, the balance of this
conflict will keep shifting: the resistance movement will get
stronger day after day and week after week, whereas the
Tigrayan occupation forces and their allies will get weaker,
more demoralized and disillusioned day after day and week
after week. It is a fact that today the Tigrayan
occupation forces are superior in terms of having more lethal
firepower.
However in all other aspects of this conflict, the balance
is heavily tilted to the advantage of the resistance forces.
First the resistance fighters are in their land and among
their people, whereas Tigrayans are strangers in a strange
land.
The overwhelming majority of the people in Mogadishu
support the resistance fighters, whereas the overwhelming
majority of the people in Mogadishu cannot stand seeing the
Tigrayan forces, adding insult to injury, and debasing the
people’s dignity and honor by deliberately setting up their
headquarters at the former Ministry of Defense, of this once
proud nation.
And if nothing else, the courageous and unprecedented
solidarity of Mogadishu elders and their determined opposition
to the occupation has dramatically changed the balance of the
power in favor of the resistance. In fact, anything that
occupation forces and their stooges did or might do after that
historic solidarity is merely catching up, or playing
overtime. And it is my gut feeling that when the historians of
the future look back the demise and the disastrous adventure
of Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia, the most critical factor
that will be highlighted by every historian will be the
elders’ historic stand.
The agenda of the Ethiopian regime toward Somalia was never
hidden: it was always to divide and subjugate, and to
dismember and terrorize. The Ethiopian regime divided
Somalia into little Bantustans, and its clans into
sub-sub-clans. So that every sub-sub-clan will be crushed, one
at a time, and all Somalis will be then terrorized forever!
However, at this crucial moment in Somali history, the
heroic solidarity of Mogadishu elders has been a painful slap
in the face of the Ethiopian regime, and it has absolutely
nullified and shattered the enemy’s schemes and tactics! The
Battle of Mogadishu … The Battle of Addis Ababa…
The stakes are too high for Males Zenawi, the Ethiopian
Prime Minster. His options in this conflict are restricted to
two, both of them very grim! Zenawi’s two unpleasant options
are:
1— To quit Mogadishu and run!
2— To dig his heels and commit the ultimate suicide.
Both of these options have direct and immediate consequence
for Mr. Zenawi. Before I analyze Mr. Zenawi’s two painful
options, let me share with the readers the option that I
personally prefer. Contrary to the popular Somali demand, I
prefer the Tigrayan occupation forces to remain in Mogadishu
for sometime, and this my reasons. The Tigrayan regime invaded
our country and killed thousands upon thousands of Somalis,
destroyed, raped and terrorized millions of Somalis.
The enemy that inflicted all that on our people is today in
a huge death-trap, otherwise known as Mogadishu! Every
Ethiopian soldier in or around Mogadishu is essentially
sitting on his grave. And the longer the Ethiopian soldier
stays in Mogadishu the certainty and the clearer it becomes
that, not only he will be buried in the very spot he is
sitting on, but also the entire Ethiopian forces in Mogadishu
will either surrender or completely annihilated! True, the
Tigrayan occupation forces have been vicious and merciless in
their constant and indiscriminate bombardment of people of
Mogadishu.
However that viciousness and that cruelty only solidified
the resolve, the solidarity, and the determination of the
resistance, and of the population, and of the elders of
Mogadishu! And it’s that resolve, and that solidarity and
determination that will break the backs of the enemy forces
and the back of every stooge that allied with them. In their
latest offensive, and because their superior firepower, the
Ethiopians may gain certain operational advantages over the
resistance.
And that advantage may last few weeks or up to three
months, depending on how successful their offensive is.
However while the success of the Ethiopian offensive may
prolong the conflict by about three or four months, it won’t
change the outcome of this conflict in any way: The Ethiopian
forces in Mogadishu will be crushed! That there is no doubt
about it!
However, since the issue is not about my options, but about
Mr. Zenawi’s, let us see, in some depth, the two difficult
choices the Ethiopian PM has to make. If Mr. Zenawi quits
Mogadishu and runs away, the consequences will be as
following: To begin with, Mr. Zenawi’s rationalization and
excuses for running away from Mogadishu are already obvious.
He will claim that he accomplished his job. He will assert
that he destroyed the UIC, enabled the TFG to stand on its
feet and settle in Mogadishu, and made it possible for the
African Union Troops to come in and take over the peacekeeping
operations. Having done all of that, Mr. Zenawi will
emphasize, there is really no reason why should the Ethiopian
forces stay in Mogadishu any longer! But Mr. Zenawi’s claims
are one thing, the reality on the ground will be totally
different thing.
If Zenawi claims to have destroyed the UIC, it will be the
UIC that will be calling the shots in Mogadishu the very day
that Ethiopian forces start fleeing Mogadishu! If he claims to
have enabled the TFG to stand on its feet and settle in
Mogadishu, when the Tigreyan forces are chased out of
Mogadishu, there will no stooge-infested-TFG neither in
Mogadishu, nor in Baydhaba, or anywhere else in Somalia. (The
African Union troops will be completely under the mercy of the
Somali resistance fighters, and hence, they are not a factor
in this conflict. They will either remain in their basis, or
they will be stripped of their guns and tanks.)
As you can see, every assertion made by Zenawi, will be
disproved by the reality on the ground. Therefore Zenawi will
lose face! His own Ethiopian people, his American friends, the
African Union, all his friends and foes throughout the world
will see the writing on the wall that when goings got tough,
Zenawi dashed for safety. Nevertheless, despite the
humiliation of losing face, there is one important benefit
that Zenawi will reap from this option: he will be able to
hang on to his power in Addis Ababa for couple of more years,
or perhaps a little bit more. For any dictator, this is very
important consideration. Now let us look at Zenawi’s only
other option.
If Zenawi decides to remain in Mogadishu, he will commit
the ultimate suicide. Unlike the option of pulling out which
carries both benefits and risks or upside and downsides, for
Zenawi and for his Tigrayan regime, staying in Mogadishu is
pure self-destruction! Since the balance of power shifted
considerably, and given their relative strength and their
knowledge of the land, the resistance forces are, for the
first time in this conflict, capable of taking a page from
successful tactics of liberation movements everywhere, and do
things they never thought about in the past such as cutting
off the supply lines and re-enforcement line from the
occupation forces in and around Mogadishu.
What would make the resistance job of cutting the supply
lines and re-enforcement lines easier is that, militarily, the
ratio of the fighters required to stage a successful ambushes
against the enemy supply-lines is very small. Only ten
sufficiently armed men can, not only disrupt, but wreck havoc
on a re-enforcement platoon of more than 300
three-hundred-soldiers.
The resistance forces not only will be able to cut off the
supply-lines and re-enforcement lines from reaching Mogadishu,
but, overtime, they can also restrict the movement of the
Tigrayan forces in Mogadishu to their basis by staging
successful and deadly ambushes against the enemy forces every
time they venture out of their basis.
This will result in a situation where the occupation forces
will be increasingly confined to their barracks. And since
their supplies and the re-enforcement they receive will first
dwindle, then completely cut off, the Ethiopian occupation
forces will be between rock and hard place: If they remain in
their barracks, they will starve; and if they venture out of
their basis they will be mowed down. We are not there yet, but
that is exactly where we are heading.
On the other hand, because they control the supply-lines,
and the people of Mogadishu are fully behind them, the
initiative will be solely in the hands of resistance fighters,
who will attack the enemy when they want, and starve them when
they want! And because they are in their land and among their
people, time is on the side of the resistance. That is, the
resistance fighters can wait as long as they need, whereas the
Ethiopian forces in Mogadishu will simply remain sitting
ducks. When the supplies of the Tigrayan forces sufficiently
dwindle, the resistance fighters will most likely give an
ultimatum to the largest Ethiopian base in Mogadishu to
surrender by a certain date, or risk to be overrun. Either
way, the Ethiopian forces in that base will crumble, and every
other Tigrayan base in Mogadishu will very likely surrender
without firing one shot.
Thus the crushing defeat of the Ethiopian forces in
Mogadishu will conclude the sad story of the Ethiopian
venture, and mark it as one of the most horrific modern
defeats of the Abyssinian Empire. When the Ethiopian forces
are annihilated in Mogadishu, the ramifications will shake
Addis Ababa, for indeed the battle of Mogadishu is also the
battle of Addis Ababa! Thus when his forces are crushed in
Mogadishu, Males Zenawi will be either killed or overthrown by
one his Tigrayan associates or rivals. And if the cracks are
too deep in the body of the long declining Ethiopia, the whole
edifice of the Abyssinian empire may just collapse. That
means, a defeat in Mogadishu means that Mr. Zenawi will be
gone.
The Tigrayan regime will collapse, and Ethiopia could be
just as well. That is why, for Mr. Zenawi, the option of
staying in Mogadishu is, in reality, no option at all: it is
pure self-annihilation! Now given the two unpleasant choices,
illustrated above, that are facing the Ethiopian Prime
Minster, the interesting question is which option will Mr.
Zenawi choose? If history is any guide, and the tendencies and
the survival instincts of dictators everywhere is anything to
go by, Mr. Zenawi’s eventual and well calculated choice is
not really that difficult to ascertain, rather it is fairly
predictable: Zenawi will quit Mogadishu and run! Certain
groups and governments will try to dissuade Zenawi from
leaving Mogadishu, but he will pay no attention to any of
those.
The Americans will urge him, cajole him, and alternately
pressure him, but he will ignore them. His Somali
stooges of the TFG will beg and plead with him, but he will
rebuff them! Zenawi’s hardened attitude against staying in
Mogadishu will be understandable: his own survival and the
survival of his regime are at stake.
Thus if he miscalculates and allows his forces to be
annihilated by the hyper ferocious Somali patriots of
Mogadishu, the Bush administration and the Somali stooges of
the TFG will be of little use to him! That Zenawi will want to
leave Mogadishu quickly is obvious. But exactly when is not
that clear. Here, the timing of the evacuation is where Mr.
Zenawi can make an unintended miscalculation. If he
decides to evacuate his forces, but misjudges the gravity of
the situation and over stays few more weeks than necessary,
the evacuation window that is now open to him may completely
close in the face of his forces. What do I mean by the
closure of the evacuation window? I mean the resistance groups
who are very strong at the moment, who will get stronger day
after day, may decide, not only to cut off the supply-lines
and re-enforcement lines to the Ethiopian forces in Mogadishu,
but they may also decide to cut off the ESCAPE routes to the
Ethiopian forces in and around Mogadishu!
Thus, the closure of the escape-routes combined with the
closure of the supply-lines and re-enforcement lines will be
the biggest TIME-Bomb that any week may explode on Zenawi’s
face. One way that the Ethiopian Prime Minster may avoid the
ambush of his forces when leaving Mogadishu is to make a deal
with Mogadishu elders and the resistance leaders.
However since negotiations are the essence of politics, and
politics, as they say, is the continuation of the war by other
means, Mogadishu elders and the resistance groups will make
some demands of their own including, but not restricted to, to
leave all heavy armaments behind, and also release all the
Somali prisoners that the Ethiopian forces kidnapped when they
invaded the country, including all of the UIC prisoners and
the prisoners transferred to Ethiopia by the Kenyan regime.
Mr. Zenawi and his generals may scoff at these demands, but
then it will be up to Zenawi and his generals to solve the
following riddle: How can the Ethiopian forces in Mogadishu
survive without supplies and re-enforcements reaching them?
And how can these Ethiopian forces leave Mogadishu while their
escape routes are mined and cut off? Indulging in premature
triumphalism?? Well, just count the days, and watch Zenawi’s
desperate moves! Post Script:
The resistance leaders and the elders’ council need to
elevate their informational offensive geared toward Somali
soldiers who found themselves in the unfortunate position of
fighting alongside their country’s and their people’s
worst enemy, the Tigrayan forces. Almost all of these Somali
soldiers, it should be remembered, regardless of which region
they originated from or which clan they may belong to,
enlisted in the service NOT to fight in Mogadishu and die
alongside Ethiopian soldiers, but primarily for employment and
economic reasons. Therefore, given the opportunity,
every Somali soldier fighting alongside the enemy would have
jumped to any opportunity if, in some miraculous way, he could
be whisked out of the death-trap that he is in, and dropped
off in the safety of his home town.
The resistance leaders and the elders’ council should
give that opportunity to those trapped Somali soldiers, and
should publicly convey to them that every Somali soldier who
deserts the enemy will be welcomed with open arms. Moreover
the elders’ council should guarantee that each and every one
of those Somali soldiers will be safely returned to their home
towns, with travel expenses paid in full! The fact the
elders’ council, just few days ago, safely returned some
Somali prisoners to their relatives solidifies the credibility
of the elders’ message.
This is a powerful and life-saving message and every sane
Somali soldier alongside the Ethiopians will most likely jump
on it. It goes without saying that such appeal should be
publicized as wide as possible using all the means available.
Lastly, the resistance leaders and elders’ council should
and must ensure that the prisoners of the war, regardless of
whether they are Ethiopians or Somalis, be treated humanely.
Treating prisoners with respect and humanely is not only an
Islamic conduct, but it is also a winning strategy. As vicious
as the war is, the word still gets around between the fighting
forces. And if the Ethiopian soldiers, many of whom being poor
Muslims forced to fight this war, become convinced if they
surrender they will be tortured and killed a painful death,
they will fight ferociously until they use their last shot.
If however they become aware that prisoners (both
Ethiopians and Somalis) are treated well by the resistance
fighters and by the elders, they would opt to surrender rather
than fight bitched battles, because if they continue fighting
they may die in the fight. But if they surrender, they will
definitely safe their lives. That is why treating prisoners
humanely is a winning strategy. In the heat of the battle and
in the most difficult circumstances, never underestimate the
power of compassion and kindness.
Mohamed Hebaan is a Somali writer and columnist for
leading Somali journals - a regular article contributor to
www.esinislam.com
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