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30 November 2010 By Saka Raji
Audu The recent release of INEC time
table for the 2011
general election indicates that
between now and January 15, 2011, all the political
parties are expected to conduct their primaries and
submit the list of the their candidates for the
election. With the recent selection of the former Vice
President, Alhaji
Atiku Abubakar by
Adamu
Ciroma led NPLF as the consensus
candidate for the northern PDP, Presidential aspirants
as IBB, Gusau and Bukola are now out of the
presidential race. Instead, they are expected to team
behind Atiku candidature to be abler to defeat the
incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. Politics, as we know, is a game
of surprises in which some time expected rarely
happens. It is however possible that in spite of the
one way traffic arrangement of Adamu Ciroma and his
group of NPLF, the incumbent President Jonathan might
take the lead in PDP primary to emerge the party flag
bearer, thereby putting Atiku and his desperation
outside the final contest. If this turns to be the
case, it is also presumed that President Goodluck
Ebele Jonathan shall meet Shekarau, Buhari and Ribadu
at the
ballot box for the final
contest. In ANPP, one of the three
Presidential aspirants, in person of Bashir Uthman
Tofa, has already opened his buttock for Atiku's PDP
to leak. This is because, as a presidential aspirant
under the platform of ANPP, it was a surprise to hear
Tofa congratulating Atiku as a northern PDP consensus
choice, thereby, heralding his self defeat and anti
party posture. Therefore, there is no way such a man
can represent his house`, what is more of ANPP. As
for the second presidential aspirant, Mr. harry Akande,
it is funny that since he failed to clinch his party
chairmanship and later declared his presidential
aspiration, no one heard about him again, one is not
even sure whether Tofa and Akande have purchased their
party nomination form. As it is today, Malam (Dr)
Ibrahim Shekarau is the only
credible, determined and upright presidential aspirant
in ANPP that should be elected by his party as its
presidential candidate. As for CPC, it appears the party
has no room for another presidential aspirant apart
from
General Muhammadu Buhari. Thus,
he will automatically be adopted as the party
candidate for the third time without going through the
ballot box. As for CAN, it is likely too that the
party will also adopt Ribadu as its candidate. This is
why there should be no cause for alarm in
Adamawa State even if Atiku would
not scale through PDP primary due to the same factor
that stopped him in 2007. In any case, we learnt
through his state governor Nyako that he did not
execute single road project in his state when he was
Vice President for eight years. At the end of the day,
it will be Jonathan, Shekarau, Buhari and Ribadu that
will sort it out at the final contest. At this juncture, let us do some
elimination series among the four, using contextual
and empirical evidence. First, there is this issue of
Nigerians being fed up with retired military men being
used as civilian leaders. The Obasanjo civilian era
has thought Nigerians a big lesson. Perhaps, the non
adoption of General Gusau and General Babangida may
have attested to this fear of retired military men in
political leadership. People are also not interested
to vote for party that does not promote and encourage
internal democracy by giving room for others to
participate in the internal democratic process of the
party. This is why the PDP northern caucus and NPLF
should have allowed
Bukola Saraki,
Ibrahim Babangida and Gusau to
test their acceptance through their party primaries.
This is why the issue of consensus arrangement remains
an aberration of democracy. When some time ago,
General Buhari advised Nigerians not to vote any party
that lacks internal democracy, he received kudos
because people believed he spoke well. But how does
this admonishment reflect the situation where the CPC
itself is still having one man as its presidential
aspirant without challenge left much to be desired. Is
it a case of do as I say and don't do as I do?
Moreover, the condition that made Buhari lose the past
two presidential contests, in spite of his alleged
massive appeal is still much available, waiting for
his third contest. So, CPC as 'popular' as one is made
to understand may not get the nod of the final say in
the 2011
presidential election. As for
Nuhu
Ribadu, a retired police officer,
he too lacks the basic democratic apparatus to put the
country in its proper perspective. Ribadu's period as
the then Chairman of EFCC witnessed selective
justice. It is only those who are not loyal to his
boss were harassed with pent-up charges of corruption.
His unpopular list of corrupt politicians left much to
be desired. His running away out of Nigeria indicated
that he was not ready to face the situation when the
need arises. There are so many powerful people ready
to take their own pond of fresh from him. So, nobody
should expect him to have an easy ride to Aso Villa,
knowing full well that he has wrongly or rightly
stepped on so many sacred toes. The stage will now be set for
President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (PDP) and Governor
Ibrahim Shekarau (ANPP). If this happens, then
President Jonathan has more hurdles to pass than
Governor Shekarau. The latter though belongs to an
opposition party, his chances of
defeating
Goodluck Jonathan,
Muhammadu Buhari and Nuhu Ribadu
is very bright. Given the circumstance in which the
trio finds themselves, Shekarau is surely going to
have an easy ride to Aso Villa in the April 9, 2011
presidential election. This is the simple arithmetic. If Jonathan wins his party
primary and becomes the presidential candidate of his
party as it is likely to be, the Adamu Ciroma led NLPF
will be boxed to the corner and feels morally
challenged. The next step will be how to push away
Jonathan in place of a northern President irrespective
of what party the person belongs. Since a battle line
has already been drawn amidst zoning, they will like
to fight it to its logical conclusion, even if it
means engaging in anti party activities, after all, in
politics, it is said that there is no permanent enemy
but permanent interest. IBB, Gusau, Atiku, Saraki and
Ciroma group would have no choice but to choose among
Buhari, Ribadu and Shekarau. Among this three, only
Shekarau has democratic experience and the pedigree to
get
Nigeria
to the Promised Land, having successfully administered
volatile state as Kano for eight years with clear
achievements to show under democratic milieu.
Shekarau's integrity, peaceful conduct of his state
affairs, detribalized postures, etc are legendary. He
should be more appealing to the aggrieved northern PDP
leaders than Buhari and Ribadu. This is how Shekarau
will receive more votes than Jonathan, Buhari and
Ribadu. Finally, as we prepare for the 9th
April presidential election, we should know that
Governor Ibrahim Shekarau
has comparative advantage over and above the rest of
the presidential candidates. It does not also matter
if Atiku defeats Jonathan in the PDP primary. This is
why ANPP delegates should ensure that Shekarau wins
their nod as the party presidential candidate for the
April 9, 2011 presidential election in Nigeria. Saka Raji Audu writes from
Kano and can be reached on his email,
sakaraj@yahoo.com Comments 💬 التعليقات |