17 January 2011 By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed I do not believe that the collapse of Saad Hariri's
government came as a surprise, although many did
believe that the Saudi Arabian and Syrian mediation
would be enough to protect the government and resolve
the issue of the international tribunal. However
everything that has been said in this regard was
nothing more than wishful thinking, and now that the
Saudi side had withdrawn, what train will Lebanon
board? It is highly likely that the Lebanese will
board the Qatari train, or perhaps the French, because
there are no volunteers prepared to follow the same
track, for everybody is aware of how grave these
problems are, and the consequences of failure. However why are the Qatari or French trains a
second or even last option? The reason for this is
Doha's good relations with the stubborn party, I mean
the party that has extremely difficult demands, who is
also the prime suspect in the assassination case [of
former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri]. I am, of course,
talking about Hezbollah. Doha was also responsible for
the previous agreement [between the Lebanese parties]
which resulted in a two-dimensional government made up
of a majority and a minority. As for the French, they
are an acceptable Western party that can act as a
witness to the pledges that will be made, and they
will be a balanced mediator. The Turks may also step
in [to mediate the Lebanese crisis] on the opposite
side of the French, although I do not say that they
will act as a counter-balance. The best possible outcome is for the Qatari
mediator to convince the Lebanese team that is
refusing to deal with the facts with regards to the
international tribunal to search for a more practical
solution. This is something that was successfully
achieved by Doha in the past when it put forward the
idea of the [political] arranged marriage. Doha
managed to convince the opposition that it was Saad
Hariri's legal right to be prime minister, whilst
convincing Hariri that there would be no government
unless he granted the opposition more power, which
resulted in the formation of the [previous]
government. No mediator, whether Saudi Arabia or Qatar or any
other country, can eliminate or deny firmly
established facts and realities in this complex case;
the tribunal exists, which is a fact, and charges will
be leveled, which is also a fact. The mediator, no
matter how enthusiastic and regardless of the support
from the Lebanese or the Arabs, can by no means put an
end to a tribunal which is linked to Article VII of
the United Nations Chart. However, the mediator can
search for solutions to alleviate the harm that may be
caused by the tribunal. US Secretary of State Hilary
Clinton said that it would be individuals, not groups,
who will be held accountable [for the assassination of
former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri], and this is a
clear example of this. This represented the first
clear indication that no accusation would be leveled
at Hezbollah or any other organization, regardless of
whether or not members of the organization are
implicated. However for there not to be a tribunal, or
charges, is impossible, at least in my opinion. If there were parties that refused to accept the
framework of the Saudi mediation by seeking to attain
the impossible, they will find that the Qatari
mediator is introducing the same initiatives. At this
point, they will not refuse and will try to market
this to their political allies. I do not believe that
Saudi Arabia will be angered by this, so long as this
will result in the protection of Lebanese national
security, and rescue the country from a deteriorating
political and security situation. The parties who have announced their withdrawal
from government have put themselves in a critical
situation, for they pledged to put an end the
tribunal, which did not happen. They could have
pledged to tackle the consequences of the anticipated
charges or even reject them. Whether Hariri manages to
resurrect a government or whether these parties manage
to old sway over Lebanon, either by force of arms or
popularity, the tribunal will continue. Therefore, let
us say that whoever mediates this is lucky because the
stubborn party has now discovered how wrong it was. Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the
former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers of
Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate degree in mass communications.
He has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs. He is currently based
in Dubai.
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