Assad And The Israeli Air Raid: Israel Is Sure That Assad's Fall Is Inevitable
16 February 2013By Tariq Alhomayed
Israel's air raid on Syria cannot be considered
surprising, particularly as the Assad regime has done
the impossible to drag Israel into the crisis,
according to its own calculations, in order to portray
what is happening in the country as being the result
of foreign schemes. Therefore the question that must
be asked here is: Why now? And what are the
implications of this? Assad has repeatedly tried to
engage Israel in this regard, whether via the Golan
Heights or Lebanon, but this always met with failure.
However Israel has now carried out an air raid against
an uncertain target, with the Assad regime claiming
that this struck a research center, while
international reports claim that it targeted rockets
being transferred to Hezbollah. In order to further
clarify this, let me relate some information that I
heard about approximately six weeks ago when a
well-known Arab leader told me that Israel was
monitoring all weapons in Syria, and that it intends
to target any arms being moved or transferred,
including targeting chemical weapons sites. The Arab
leader said that it would be an act of madness for
Israel to take unilateral action to target Syrian
chemical weapons, as the consequences of this would
affect everybody. He said that it was therefore vital
to convince Israel not to take this course of action.
This means that Israel was, and continues to, closely
monitor the situation in Syria, and it has
comprehensive plans on how to deal with the developing
situation there.
The implications of the Israeli operation in Syria are
also very important. If this operation was to target
Russian-made rockets being transferred to
Hezbollah-and this is the most likely story so
far-then this means that Assad has realized that the
balance of power on the ground has changed, and that
he is no longer even capable of ensuring that SA-17
missiles remain in his hands. The other possibility is
that Assad has sensed that there may soon be
international intervention against him, and therefore
wants to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah in the hope that
they can be used from Lebanese territory. This
represents last minute thinking and is ultimately a
desperate move reminiscent of what Saddam Hussein did
when he smuggled his warplanes to Iran following his
occupation of Kuwait. This also indicates that Assad
is prepared to fight till the end, but with fragile
capabilities. It would be disastrous for Hezbollah to
defend Assad in this manner, not just militarily, but
also in terms of the group's popular support.
Another consequence of this air raid is that it has
revealed that Israel is monitoring the course of
events on the ground in Syria, and is acting according
to specific goals, unless Assad breaks the rules of
the game. This means that it is acceptable for him to
kill his people and destroy Syria, and this of course
represents a strategic gain for Israel; however it is
not acceptable for Assad-nor the rebels-to change the
rules of the game. For all that the Israelis want is
to ensure that this war continues to be an
inter-Syrian affair, which exhausts Assad's allies,
particularly as Israel is sure that Assad's fall is
inevitable. This also exhausts Syria as a whole, which
is something that ensures future security for Israel
when the crisis ends, regardless of its result. This
is because Syria as a whole will be exhausted and out
of the equation for a long period of time. This
viewpoint, of course, is limited. However what is
strange is that this is precisely Assad and Iran's
plan, namely that there is no Syria after Assad.
Tariq Alhomayed is the Editor-in-Chief of Asharq
Al-Awsat, the youngest person to be appointed that
position. He holds a BA degree in Media studies from
King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah, and has also
completed his Introductory courses towards a Master's
degree from George Washington University in Washington
D.C. He is based in London.
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