What Can We Do For Syria? Saudi Advices Were Ignored

17 December 2016

By Dr. Khaled M. Batarfi

INTERVIEWERS and Arab friends are asking where are Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Gulf States? Halab (Aleppo) is losing out to Russia, Iran and its militias. Your allies in the resistance are calling for help. Have you abandoned them? Why?

I ask them back, what could we have done to help? Let's be realistic and specific. Do you expect the Saudi Air Force to face the Russians in a dogfight or the Saudi Army to be ordered to enter into Halab?

How would we authorize such an action? In Yemen, we have a UN authorization. We have a Security Council mandate. We have a desperate call for help from the Yemeni president. When Iraq invaded Kuwait, we had all the above legal coverage to liberate it. Both countries are neighbors and we could provide support from Saudi bases — no need to pass through other countries' airspace or land; and no need to provide logistics far away from home. In Syria we don't have any of that.

But for the sake of argument, let's assume that we do have an international authorization. And most importantly, we do have the capacity to fight on two fronts — Yemen and Syria, while facing Iranian and Daesh threats at the same time. Tell me how could we interfere? We are not neighbors with Syria. So do you suggest we charge our way through other nations without their agreement? Do you expect Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon or Turkey to just let our tank convoys pass through and then who would provide us with air cover and needed logistics?

From the beginning we knew our limits. Our stand was mostly political. We tried first to convince Bashar Al-Assad to reason with his people, offering his government all needed support. Long before the opposition resorted to arms, the Syrians were calling for better life conditions with less oppression. They didn't call for regime change as they did in Libya, Tunis, Egypt and Yemen, so resorting to force was totally unnecessary.

Saudi advices were ignored, Iranian promise of resolving the situation by force within months was believed. Al-Assad made up his mind and decided to send tanks and aircraft to put down the demonstration. Action was met with reaction. After eight months of peaceful resistance, Syrians took up to arms in self-defense. We had to choose which side to support. Obviously, we chose the Syrian people's side. But support was limited to political pressure on the government, material help for the people, including dealing with the refugee crisis, and light armaments for the resistance.

We worked with our regional partners and the world community to save Syria and the Syrians through political solutions. In 2012, one year after the start of the crisis, we had Geneva 1 agreement. The Syrian regime agreed with its people on transferring power to a unity government that would prepare for an election under UN supervision.

However, Iran didn't like it. It meant the loss of its obedient ally who would facilitate its grand project of controlling Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Without him, who would legitimize their hegemony and rubberstamp on their administrative and military presence in Syria? Without the loss of the Syrian pass, Hezbollah, the Iranian agent in Lebanon, would lose its feed line. They forced Damascus to turn against it with the promise of full Iranian engagement. This included up to 100,000 Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah and other Shiite militias form Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq.

Years later, the situation was worsening. The regime only ruled quarter of Syria. The rest went to various Syrian groups and Daesh. Russia, which has a marine base in Tartos for ages, was gradually increasing its military presence in addition to its political support. In 2015, it decided to go with full force. Sensing Americans in do-nothing mode, it jumped in big time.

Over a year of besiege, killing and destruction at a scale that exceeded the devastation of Berlin in 1945, and Afghanistan in 1980s, the barbaric campaign succeeded in destroying the country and forcing Halab's surrender. That might be the end of a battle, but certainly not the end of war. Daesh's surprise occupation of Palmyra was a reminder of that.

Only by going back to the neglected political agreement of Geneva 1, we could find lasting peace. Meanwhile, all we could do is to continue supporting the Syrian people, giving them safe havens, bolstering the moderate opposition, cultivating their unity and world resolve. The Syrian seat in the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the UN should be given to the representative of the Syrian people.

We need also to get a resolution from the UN General Assembly for the creation of an International Court to investigate war crimes in Syria.
That is what, realistically and practically, we could do… and, like it or not, that is the only legitimate way to do it.

— Dr. Khaled M. Batarfi is a Saudi writer based in Jeddah. He can be reached at kbatarfi@gmail.com. Follow him at Twitter:@kbatarfi 

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