01 September 2010By Michael Sanibel
The recent financial crisis and
recession have been a worldwide occurrence. The events
in the United States since 2008 have garnered most of
the headlines because the U. S. has the world's
largest economy and national debt, but the reality is
that many countries in Europe are in worse financial
shape and continue to deteriorate.
There are various ways to rank
indebtedness, such as debt per capita and deficit or
debt as a function of gross domestic product (GDP).
This ranking is based on cumulative debt as a
percentage of GDP and is limited to an analysis of the
25 largest economies. It is further limited to
"external" debt, which is the portion of the national
debt that is owed only to foreign creditors. The
source for the debt and GDP amounts is the Central
Intelligence Agency World Factbook most recent numbers
from mid to late 2009.
1.
Ireland - Debt/GDP: 997%
The days of Ireland enjoying one of the fastest
growing economies in Europe are over, at least for
now. The story is all too familiar, as easy credit
fueled a housing bubble that burst and damaged
consumer confidence.
After recording budget surpluses in the prior two
years, the economy reversed course in 2009 and
contracted 7%. This eroded tax revenues and sent the
annual deficit to a record 14.3% of GDP. The European
Union set a target for Ireland to reduce that figure
to 3% by 2014, but the International Monetary Fund has
indicated that the deadline will be missed. Moody's
has subsequently lowered its bond rating.
2.
Netherlands - Debt/GDP: 467%
The national debt in the Netherlands has reached
record levels as a result of the world financial
crisis and recession. Much of the added burden was
caused by significant government support for the
country's banking sector. The increase in debt per
capita is second only to that experienced in Ireland.
The Netherlands joined the eurozone with a hard
guilder a decade ago, but its current debt would
likely disqualify it for membership.
3.
United Kingdom - Debt/GDP: 409%
Investment bank Morgan Stanley fears that Great
Britain could face a severe debt crisis in the near
future if it continues down its current path.
According to the bank's report, this is a case of not
putting aside sufficient reserves when the economy was
sound. During the peak of the boom, it still ran a
budget deficit of 3% of GDP when other European
countries were running surpluses exceeding 2%.
Like many other countries, Britain bought time during
the financial crisis by implementing massive fiscal
stimulus and forcing the public to fund losses in the
private sector. Without the restoration of fiscal
credibility, there is a significant danger of a
government bond sell-off, pound weakness and a flight
of capital.
4.
Switzerland - Debt/GDP: 273%
Generally regarded as having one of the world's most
stable economies, Switzerland has taken its budget
crisis seriously. When the national debt began to
escalate in the last decade, the Swiss voted to
approve a constitutional amendment forcing the
government to balance expenses and revenue during each
economic cycle. While annual deficits may still occur,
this has instilled discipline in the process and
lowered the country's borrowing costs as investors
rushed to safety.
This so-called "debt brake" was implemented in
response to increasing debt stemming from a slowdown
in economic growth. Deficits climbed as spending rose
for unemployment benefits and tax revenues declined.
While government expenditures were cut across the
board, rising revenues have not been sufficient to pay
down the incurred debt.
5.
Portugal - Debt/GDP: 228%
With last year's deficit coming in at 9.4% of GDP, the
Portuguese government has instituted a growth and
austerity program with the objective of reducing that
number to 2.8% by 2013. These measures have sparked
strikes in the public sector including postal and
transportation services. Those events have been
further propelled by unemployment above 10%, the worst
in 40 years.
The root problem has been low productivity and
virtually no economic growth in the past few years.
Portugal ranks last in GDP growth among countries that
adopted the euro as a common currency. Demand for
goods and services has stalled, along with innovation
and business momentum. In addition, Portugal's exports
have been undercut by cheap labor in countries such as
China. (For related reading, see The Economics Of
Labor Mobility.)
6.
Austria - Debt/GDP: 214%
The recession and government assistance to banks have
contributed to the budget crisis in Austria. The
finance minister has rejected the notion of higher
taxes in favor of administrative reforms to cut
spending. He has predicted that the annual deficit
would grow from 3.5% to 4.7% of GDP between 2010 and
2012 before starting to decline. That peak would be
the third-highest since 1976 when such data were first
recorded.
Rising unemployment has resulted in increased
expenditures for unemployment compensation and other
government benefits. In addition to the reduced
payrolls, tax reforms have driven down overall tax
revenues.
The
Bottom Line
While the U.S. and Canada have large economies, their
respective debt-to-GDP ratios are 93% and 62%. The
U.S. gets most of the attention because of the size of
the numbers that comprise the ratio - $13.5 trillion
debt (June 2009) and $14.4 trillion GDP (2009
estimate).
By comparison, China and India have ratios of 7% and
20% respectively. Their economic growth rates have
also exceeded the western nations over the past few
years, thereby keeping their debt ratios relatively
low. If the western nations don't implement policies
to reduce their debts, they run the risk of
jeopardizing future economic growth and prosperity.
©
EsinIslam.Com
Add Comments