The Hariri Tribunal: In Hezbollah's Interests? Explicit Blackmailing
23 December 2010By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed
I'm not saying this to be sarcastic, but the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon is truly in everybody's
interests, and particularly those who are accused of
Hariri's assassination. This is the synopsis of my
article. However the opposite of this is also true;
for rejecting the international tribunal will be the
greatest mistake that anybody could make, especially
in light of some of the rhetoric that we are hearing
today. We hear Hezbollah threatening violence if the
tribunal does not stop its work, while the suspects
are just a handful of people, some of whom have
already taken their secrets to the grave. However, as
we know, those who think with their weapons do not
always correctly use their intellect.
What will Hezbollah do if the tribunal issues
indictments against some of its members?
Will it overthrow the government by force of arms?
Will it spread chaos by invading the areas of its
opponents in Beirut? Will it occupy government
institutions, and cripple some of the state's vital
facilities, and take control of the motorway that
leads to Beirut airport? Will it target its opponents
out of revenge? Will it occupy downtown Beirut again?
If Hezbollah tries any of this it will only prove the
tribunal's decision right, and no country around the
world will call for its end. Such aggression would
also be internationally condemned, rather than this
issue being viewed as a local disagreement, as is the
case now. Such action will only serve to increase the
scope of the crime.
The situation looks bad, and this is not because of
the old crime [being investigated] but because of what
is happening today. Hezbollah is utilizing rhetoric
that it never has before, making clear and explicit
threats saying that either the Saudi – Syrian proposal
is agreed – in other words no accusations are leveled
at Hezbollah – or there will be dire consequences.
This is explicit blackmail.
Personally, I do not understand why Hezbollah is so
afraid; this is an organization whose leadership was,
and remains, pursued by the law over the past 30
years. There are Hezbollah members in prison in many
countries around the world, so what is different [this
time]? The argument that Hezbollah fears that if any
of its members are indicted, this will cause a crack
in the relationship between the Sunnis and Shiites in
Lebanon is not believable, particularly due to the
number of cracks in this relationship caused by the
Hezbollah movement itself, including its recent
threats against the Sunni community under the pretext
of preventing the tribunal's expected decision.
In my opinion, Hezbollah knows that the consequences
of what it has said it will do [if the tribunal does
not stop its operations] will be worse than before.
This will result in sectarian conflict, with
Hezbollah's allies, most notably Iran, being besieged
from all sides. Following this, sectarian chaos will
be a political weapon rather than merely a genuine
emotional reaction. This is a genuine threat that
cannot be compared with bringing a handful of people
to justice, most of whom will be convicted in
absentia.
Therefore let me say once more: the international
tribunal is the solution, not to gain revenge [against
those who committed this crime] but in order to put an
end to this entire chapter.
The murder of Hariri and the assassination of so many
Lebanese leaders and politicians is a crime that
cannot be forgotten, and one that no tribunal in the
world can leave half-investigated. This tribunal is
the best conclusion to this tragedy-filled decade, and
I would argue that the tribunal is in the interests of
the prime suspects; for it brings a political divisive
case that has lasted for long years to an end. The
tribunal will put an end to the crisis, and the
situation will return to how it was prior to Hariri's
assassination and everybody can carry on with their
lives.
Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the
former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers of
Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate degree in mass communications.
He has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs. He is currently based
in Dubai.
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