Ahmadinejad Is Truly Brave: Having To Give Up Rice And Shish Kebab's
25 December 2010By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid
We must acknowledge that he is a courageous man, more
a war general than a popular politicians. To raise
fuel prices four-fold…this is to take as great a risk
as any official in the world has taken, regardless of
his reasons for this and his own authority. What
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did this week is
more courageous than all of his previous
confrontations.
Ahmadinejad raising the price of fuel four-fold is
more courageous than the challenge that he has issued
to the international community by persisting with
Tehran's nuclear enrichment project, which has
resulted in the US and Israel issuing military threats
to overthrow his regime. However his decision to hit
70 million Iranian consumers in their pockets is
definitely more dangerous than the decision he took to
confront and suppress three million demonstrators who
took to the streets of Tehran chanting
anti-governmental slogans in protest against vote
rigging, and his being awarded a second presidential
time.
This was an act of political suicide, yet in spite of
this, Ahmadinejad has remained safely in power until
now. This formidable President has prepared for the
crisis [resulting from Tehran removing subsidies] with
a set of measures; he has given each Iranian citizen a
one-time cheque for $77 to help them through this
trying time. The aim of this policy is to neutralize
[the protests] of the poor, by providing them with a
little bit extra. As for the ever-grumbling middle
classes, Ahmadinejad is well prepared for this, with
the army, the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij are
on a state of alert in all cities, ready to put down
anybody who dares to protest.
Is it a mistake? For Ahmadinejad, the removing of
subsidies will be a defining moment, as would any
decision not to do so. He will now not back down from
this decision, no matter how much blood is shed or how
many cities are burnt to the ground…that is unless the
Supreme Leader of Iran takes the decision to throw him
to the wolves.
Although Ahmadinejad has, for months, been giving
justifications as to why this is a necessary step, and
calling on the public to be patient and understand his
decision, it is not natural for the citizens of any
country to sacrifice their livelihood in this manner,
regardless of the justifications.
What will happen now? Either Ahmadinejad will have to
suppress the protests of his own people, and as one
ordinary Iranian said, the people will have to give up
"rice and shish kebab's" or he will back down from
this decision [to remove subsidies]. It is most likely
that the people will eat cheese and olives [instead of
rice and shish kebabs].
However before we blame Ahmadinejad for his cruelty,
we should remember that he did not create this crisis
but inherited it. The Iranian regime has always
subsidized prices for different political and economic
reasons, to the point that the government is today
facing huge bills that threaten to bankrupt it. The
government says that it paid $114 billion on energy
subsidies, which is a huge figure by any criteria, but
especially for a country with decreasing revenues.
Petrol in Iran was the cheapest in the world thanks to
these government subsidies, even cheaper than the
price of petrol in Saudi Arabia, where the price of
fuel is also heavily subsidized.
However this has all changed; Iran is experiencing a
domestic economic war, something that the Americans
and their allies are relying upon. Iran produces oil -
the most wonderful commodity with which the world
cannot do without – however despite this, Tehran will
have no option but to give up its political project
whose objective is to secure Iranian dominance in the
Middle East, especially over oil-producing regions in
the Gulf, due to the countries financial state of
affairs. Tehran will also have to give up its military
nuclear project which would have ensured the survival
of the Iranian regime. This is a waiting game, and it
is a difficult one to call, for the question is: who
will give in first?
Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the
former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers of
Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate degree in mass communications.
He has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs. He is currently based
in Dubai.
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EsinIslam.Com
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