17 December 2010
By Ramzy Baroud The timing of the Turkish Prime
Minister's two-day visit to Lebanon could not be more
judicious. Lebanon's enemies have been banging the
drums of war louder than ever before. All the
malevolent plans hatched following the assassination
of Lebanon's former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri are
about to converge for one formidable goal: to
destabilize and weaken Lebanon, disarm Hezbollah and
allow Israel to return, uncontested, and wreck havoc
on the tiny country, the way it remorselessly did in
1982. The Turkish premier Recep Tayyip
Edrogan seemed clear in his intentions during his
Lebanon trip. But considering what is at stake, maybe
he wasn't clear enough. Israel is full of "uncertainties"
and it is "not definite what it will do," he claimed,
according to Turkey's state Anatolia news agency (AA).
"Does (Israel) think it can enter Lebanon with the
most modern aircraft and tanks to kill women and
children, and destroy schools and hospitals, and then
expect us to remain silent?" he asked. "We will not be
silent and we will support justice by all means
available to us." Erdogan's words seem decisive,
but they are as decisive as the strong messages he's
conveyed earlier, including in response to the Israeli
war on Gaza (2008-09). Israel is yet to heed his any
of his warnings. Lebanon needs all its friends to
prevent the possible civil strife that could follow
any indictment by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon of
Hezbollah members over the assassination of Hariri.
The tribunal is a highly politicized venture, strongly
backed by the US and Israel. It is seen by many in the
region, including Hezbollah itself, as a roundabout
attempt to subdue the Lebanese resistance to Israel.
Israel's all-out war against Lebanon in 2006 killed
and wounded thousands, and destroyed much of the
country's infrastructure. However, it failed to
dismantle the resistance, but instead provided it with
a moral and political boost. Incessant attempts at
destabilizing the country since then have yielded
meager returns, and never managed to create the
political vacuum needed to rationalize an Israeli
comeback. The verdict of the tribunal might
be Israel's last card in this terrible game. Thus far,
it has been a winning card. Accusing Syria and
Syria-affiliated Lebanese figures of being behind the
Hariri's assassination has reaped its rewards. 14,000
Syrian soldiers were rushed outside the country only
two months after the former Prime Minister's death.
Syria was labeled a foreign occupier of Lebanon by the
same Western governments that supported and defended
the Israeli war on Lebanon a year later. Once Syria
was more or less removed from the Lebanese equation,
accusations of Syrian responsibilities were dropped,
and an apology by a Western-affiliated Lebanese leader
was issued. Mission accomplished. Then, the tribunal, along with
Israel and its allies, moved on to another target:
Hezbollah. While no group is really above suspicion,
Hezbollah is still indisputably correct in accusing
the tribunal of being politically motivated, with an
ultimate aim at disarming the resistance. In fact,
Israel has been eagerly anticipating the moment when
the tribunal issues arrest warrants for Hezbollah
members, and carefully calculating its response. Gulf
News reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu consulted with top ministers in his cabinet
on November 24 to "discuss concerns that Hezbollah
could attempt a coup against the government." An
Israeli army statement issued on behalf of Chief of
Staff Lt General Gabi Ashkenazi was also quoted by the
Gulf News: "There is a real possibility that Hezbollah
will take over Lebanon." It's unclear what the Israel
response will entail. In 1982, Israel acted against
various resistance groups of Lebanon, demolishing the
country in the process, and installing a
‘democratically-elected' puppet government. This
further contributed to Lebanon's ongoing misery and
the state of absolute chaos and civil war. In 2000,
when a homegrown Lebanese resistance managed to force
the Israeli army out from the south, Lebanon finally
began to enjoy some prospects of stability and
sovereignty. Then, on February 14, 2005, the Hariri
convey was blasted by the equivalent of 1000 kg of
TNT, killing the former Prime Minister and many
others. The prospect of stability vanished, and once
again Lebanon fell into the abyss of dark
possibilities. In the rush to seize the moment,
Israel attacked Lebanon in the summer of 2006. This
proved a gross miscalculation. Israel assumed that
Lebanon was ripe for the picking, but obviously it
wasn't. The resistance was steadfast, and Israel's
military move proved costly, if not utterly
embarrassing. Hezbollah emerged stronger than ever.
Empowered by Israel's military
failure, Syria began to reclaim its role in the
region. Iran too was emboldened. In a series of events
that culminated last October, the country's President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivered a scathing speech in
south Lebanon, stating that "the world should
understand that the Zionists will go." Lebanon is relatively unified,
since most parties are aware of the grim realities
that await the country should Israel succeed in its
plans. Even leaders within the Middle East are
becoming somewhat sincere in their efforts to offset
the potential crisis. But history has showed that both
the Lebanese and Arab fronts are too fractious to
withstand consistent and focused outside pressures.
Now Turkey has appeared in the
picture. A new and solid card, it perhaps has the
power to change the rules of this painfully
predictable game. Israel, in response, is trying to
undermine the risk. On November 26, Israeli daily
Haaretz reported on Israel's strategy to circumvent
Turkey by warming up to and upgrading ties with
various Balkan countries: Cyprus, Romania, Serbia,
Montenegro, Macedonia and Croatia. It is just a matter
of replacing financial and political losses in one
place with gains in another, according to Israel's
straightforward calculations. But Turkey can prove Israel's
estimate wrong. However, promises that Turkey will no
longer stand idle as children and women are killed no
longer suffice. Israel seems unmoved by words, perhaps
betting on Turkey's military and economic ties to the
West. If Turkey is indeed serious, it must reveal some
of its cards, and send a clear message to those
fanning the flames: that 2010 is not 1982; that
Lebanon will no longer be testing grounds for Israel's
and US lethal weapons; that the times have changed for
real. Lebanon and the Middle East are counting on
Turkey, not as a wild card, but as a true and lasting
friend. - Ramzy Baroud (www.ramzybaroud.net)
is an internationally-syndicated columnist and the
editor of PalestineChronicle.com. His latest book is
My Father Was a Freedom Fighter: Gaza's Untold Story
(Pluto Press, London), now available on Amazon.com. Comments 💬 التعليقات |