Thoughts On Fighting Corruption: Nigerian Economics Game
Theory - Nash Equilibrium
02 January 2011By Saadu Jijji
The field of Economics has some interesting theories
that are worth learning partly because the social
science assumes that most people are rational human
beings. It is tempting to dismiss some of these
concepts as destructive theories developed by ‘…white
men with blue eyes….' whom outgoing President Lula da
Silva of Brazil believes have led the world to the
present economic crisis. Nonetheless, there will
always remain some value in these concepts. One
intriguing ‘Game Theory' concepts in Economics is
called the ‘Nash Equilibrium'.
The concept of ‘Nash Equilibrium', propounded by the
Nobel Prize winning Princeton University Economist
John F. Nash (whose life story was the inspiration for
the Oscar award winning film – ‘A Beautiful Mind'),
like some Nobel winning ideas, is commonsensical.
Simply, the concept states that Ahmed and Emeka are in
a ‘Nash Equilibrium' if Ahmed is making his best
decision taking into to account Emeka's decision and
Emeka is making his best decision taking into account
Ahmed's decision. Although this state of equilibrium
may not be the best for both Ahmed and Emeka, none of
them can benefit by unilaterally changing his decision
as long as the other party maintain his stance.
Anyone who has been to a football stadium for a match
would have seen the ‘Nash Equilibrium' in practice
without necessarily realizing it. When one team
attempts to score, the usual reaction is for
spectators to, out of excitement, stand from their
seats. Now, if those on the front row stand, it is
only rational for those behind them to also stand. All
fans will rationally remain standing after the attempt
even though ALL fans will be better off returning to
their seats. To achieve a better equilibrium, you have
to convince (or force) those in front of you to return
to their seats before it becomes rational for you to
also return to yours.
Corruption in Nigeria has reached such a level that it
has put our society in a dangerous and unproductive
‘Nash Equilibrium'. Morality aside, our society is
degenerating to a level where people are rationalizing
corruption. Since someone will eventually steal the
money or rig the election and go free, it might well
be you or someone close to you. Nigerians claim to be
religious. A 2010 PEW study found 87% of Nigerians
(Christians – 80%, Muslims -93%) saying ‘Religion is
very important to our lives'. In practice, many
Nigerians tend to treat God in the same way we treat a
First Aid Box – ‘Get it when in trouble, otherwise
hang for display'. When faced with the prospect of
corruption, many Nigerians simply wonder whether it is
rational to remain honest in a country where others
are enjoying the benefits of corruption unhindered?
The politician who does not rig elections faces almost
certain defeat at the polls – the worst punishment
that has ever been meted out on any politician for
criminally rigging himself to office is been asked to
leave the office, possibly after 3 years. The civil
servant who does not inflate contracts and receive his
share faces the prospect of penury during and after
service. For the typical private sector participant;
corruption is simply a business expense. In Nigeria,
most people that remain incorruptible, despite having
the opportunity to abuse their position, are regarded
by the society either as Saints (not to be emulated)
or ‘Mumus' (to be derided). Not only do your family
and immediate community expect you to be corrupt, your
employers (especially the government) probably assume
you are already helping yourself anyway.
Corruption in Nigeria has produced such a sub optimal
equilibrium that even the beneficiaries are worse off.
The public official who steals public funds to buy
exotic cars will eventually damage them on the
pot-hole infested roads whose renovation he
frustrated. The mansion he built from his loot, is
essentially a prison whose high walls not only obscure
its beauty but whose bugler proof windows can lead to
certain death in case of a fire incidence – If the
poor cannot sleep because of hunger, the rich will not
relax because of insecurity. The children of the
corrupt elite may attend the most expensive schools
abroad, but many of them are certain to return to
Nigeria and live in fear of being kidnapped for ransom
or robbed to death in crimes committed by the very
children whose education and economic advancement
their parents jeopardized so that they could school
abroad. The major reason why life in the so called
developed countries looks far better than ours is
because they are operating at a better equilibrium.
Anyone who has been to the UK would be struck by the
British obsession with ‘following the queue'. Queuing
has become so British that it is often joked that ‘An
Englishman even if alone, forms an orderly queue of
one'. So what makes the Nigerian traveler queue in the
UK but attempts to shunt in Lagos? How can we move
Nigeria to a better equilibrium?
As the 2011 elections approaches, Nigerian voters
should be asking who amongst the major aspirants can
effectively move our society to a better equilibrium
where corruption can be minimized. Democracy, even in
its pristine form, is essentially a popularity
contest. Merit, like beauty, will lie with the
beholder. That notwithstanding, Nigerians should be
looking for candidates whose very reputations and
antecedents will send strong signals to all that not
only will it no longer be worthwhile to be corrupt but
candidates whose competences assure ordinary folks
that other Nigerians will not be allowed to benefit
from corruption to their exclusion. In achieving this
objective, prosecuting corrupt officials may help but
cannot be the most effective method. Policing is a
reactive, expensive and thankless endeavour. How many
policemen do you need to stop policemen from
collecting N20 from Okada operators? EFCC and ICPC may
prosecute high profile offenders or achieve plea
bargains with them, to many Nigerians; these agencies
exist for the big out-of-favour crooks. In any case,
corruption has become so pervasive in our society that
fighting it has also become a very lucrative
profession.
For Nigeria to turn a new leaf, Nigerians have to
elect leaders whose very identity will send a strong
signal that business will be unusual. Leaders, the
mere thought of who repulses corruption. Any Nigerian
leader who has to explain his new found resolve to
fight corruption can as well forget about the fight.
In the development of Nations, except through
revolutions, profound changes begin, and are
sustained, by a consensus of the elite. From
Secularism in Turkey, End of Apartheid in South Africa
to Economic Reform in China, an elite consensus,
however vague, is needed for any peaceful change. The
Adamu Ciroma led Northern Political Leadership Forum (NPLF)
is a close example of an elite consensus albeit
localized to a party and region. By their very choice,
the Ciroma committee has sent a clear signal that
fighting corruption will unlikely be the focus of any
future PDP led federal government. In fairness, the
PDP never had much options – the party is structured
to make the emergence of any anti-corruption candidate
an aberration. As President Jonathan would have
already realized, a President's latitude for fighting
corruption in Nigeria is determined and capped by his
manner of ascension. Fighting corruption, as a PDP
President, requires biting the fingers that fed you.
If you happen to see the light on your way to
Damascus, you may as well not get there.
Outside of the PDP, there are very few serious parties
or presidential contenders. Some of the parties have
remained stillborns; others are already struggling
with terminal illness. The only other viable parties
are the resurging Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and
the General Muhammadu Buhari inspired Congress for
Progressive Change (CPC). Of recent there have been
newspaper reports about an alliance between the two.
This in itself does not say much. Both parties may be
similar in their ambition to dethrone the PDP, but as
we all know, presence of similarities is not the same
as the absence of differences. The leading candidates
of the parties, Muhammadu Buhari (CPC) and Nuhu Ribadu
(ACN), have the reputation and pedigree to make
fighting corruption the focal point of their
campaigns. However, unless the two parties are able to
move the fight against corruption from campaign
rhetoric to coalition manifesto and ultimately
government policy, whoever emerges as their candidate
may well be reminded that it takes more than
reputation and good intentions to fight corruption in
Nigeria.
In analyzing the problem of corruption in Nigeria,
there is no need to apportion blame; there is enough
to go round. However, in fighting corruption, the
Federal Government and the Presidency are the most
critical institutions. The Federal Government not only
controls more resources than all the other tiers
combined but also has exclusivity of law enforcement.
Whoever emerges as the next President of Nigeria has a
unique opportunity to change the course of this
country.
While we remain hopeful that the new Jega-induced INEC
equilibrium will produce leaders of our choice, we
have to use that choice to excise the malignant cancer
ravaging our nation. The fight against corruption in
Nigeria is a collective responsibility we all share.
Sa'ad A. Jijji writes from Lagos. He can be reached at
sukayel@yahoo.com
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