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26 January 2011 By Stephen
Lendman Conditions there remain fluid.
Key was a Washington/French pressured UN-backed
Special Tribunal's sealed January 17 indictment of
those allegedly responsible for former Prime Minister
Rafik Hariri's February 14, 2005 killing, preceded by
Hezbollah's January 12 pulling out of Lebanon's
coalition government causing it to collapse. The above
linked articles explain both events in detail,
including who, in fact, likely killed Hariri, and
implications going forward. Two blocks comprised Lebanon's
misnamed "national unity" government: -- the opposition March 8
alliance, including (Shia) Hezbollah, (Shia) Amals,
and (secular, mainly Maronite Christian) Free
Patriotic Movement and with 57 seats; and -- the majority March 14 Sunni/Phalangist
Christian coalition (including independents, lead by
now caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri) with 60. Walid Jumblatt's secular,
officially non-sectarian Druze Progressive Socialist
Party (PSP) 11 seat bloc holds decisive balance of
power in Lebanon's 128 seat parliament. On January 21,
he chose sides, Al Jazeera headling, "Lebanon's
Jumblatt backs Hezbollah," saying: His decision "could give
(Hezbollah) and its allies a veto over who becomes the
country's next prime minister," Jumblatt saying he
wished only to preserve Lebanon's stability, adding: "I am announcing the right
political stand....by assuring the steadfastness of
the (PSP) alongside Syria and the resistance
(Hezbollah)." The previous day, Hariri said
he'd seek to form a new government despite strong
pressure for him to step down. Michel Aoun, a
Christian leader allied with Hezbollah explained, "We
said Hariri should not come back, and yes he should
not come back." Hariri agreed to accept the
result of January 24 discussions with President Michel
Suleiman who called for consultations to choose a new
prime minister based on who's most strongly backed.
Hezbollah is expected to nominate former prime
minister Omar Karameh. Under Lebanon's confessional
system, prime ministers must be Sunni Muslim,
presidents Maronite Christian, and parliamentary
speakers Shia Muslim. On January 22, Lebanon's Daily
Star headlined, "Jumblatt redraws PM battle lines,'
saying: Besides backing Hezbollah (and
Syria), he "slammed the UN-backed Special Tribunal (STL)
as a tool for 'political blackmail" that threatens the
country's national unity and security." Its Hariri
killing investigation caused tension between the two
blocs, now heightened after announcing release of its
sealed indictment expected to name Hezbollah. However,
it will be late February or early March before it's
known for sure. Saying Lebanon stood at "a
dangerous crossroads," Jumblatt's decision gives March
8 bloc parties an edge, though how many of his 11
members will vote with him isn't sure. According to an
unnamed alliance member, he promised at least seven,
saying: "The opposition has secured a
majority in Parliament. But holding the parliamentary
consultations on time remains uncertain," explaining
that Arab and international attempts for compromise
could delay scheduled discussions. When held, Suleiman
will choose the most popular new prime minister based
on choices of all parliamentary members. Both sides
are now scrambling to prevail. Jumblatt, a former March 14
member, split and now backs Hezbollah and Syria,
saying: "The international tribunal has
assumed a political dimension par excellence,
threatening the national unity and national security.
This tribunal's path has become a tool of sabotage and
deviated from the path of justice to enter a political
bazaar and political blackmail." He added that a Saudi-Syrian
attempted compromise proposed ending Lebanon's links
to the STL by canceling further cooperation, halting
funding, and withdrawing Lebanese judges. He initially
supported the effort "because it provided a solution
for the current crisis," and was endorsed by all
parties until (Washington/French) pressure corrupted
it, adding: "International powers did not
agree or accept a Syrian-Saudi rapprochement through
which an inter-Lebanese settlement could be reached to
negate the ramifications of the tribunal and its
indictment which is in theory secret, but has been
announced by all the media outlets. This matter has
undermined the tribunal's credibility and confirmed
that it is politicized." Jumblatt's decision came a day
after Turkey and Qatar abandoned efforts for a
solution, warning partition or possible conflict could
result. Expect parliamentary consultations delayed so Washington and France can apply intense pressure, intimidation and coercion to force enough Jumblatt bloc member backing for Hariri, letting his March 14 coalition retain its majority. Which side will prevail isn't clear or whether sectarian strife will result either way. In Lebanon, resolution isn't simple. Hezbollah wants no street violence, but won't accept a Hariri-led government. Washington, Israel and France won't tolerate a Hezbollah-led one. Battle lines are clearly drawn. Some fear political stalemate followed by Mossad assassinations, car bombings and other violence wrongfully blamed on Hezbollah as was Rafiq Hariri's killing. Going forward, resolution depends on dissociating Lebanon's government from the corrupted tribunal and political compromise, but don't expect it under a Hezbollah-led government. Most often in Lebanon, what's next remains unknown. Two recent articles discussed Lebanon's present turmoil in detail, accessed through the following links: http://sjlendman.blogspot.com/2011/01/turmoil-in-lebanon.html http://sjlendman.blogspot.com/2011/01/heightened-tensions-after-hariri.html
Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net. Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs are archived for easy listening. http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-progressive-news-hour/. |
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