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15 February 2011 By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid Egypt is already different from other countries in
the region. In the middle of the capital people are
celebrating, taking pictures and eating sweets. This
scene is not unusual after the military announces the
regime will change. It calls for optimism and
contemplation in the near future. Here in my head I
have many questions regarding the largest Arab state.
We could argue for example: Did President Hosni
Mubarak step down two weeks too late? Or was it seven
months too early? His exit, in any case, was
inevitable since his first speech [during the crisis].
Yet more important than Mubarak is the future of
Egypt, who will govern it and how? Because we do not
know the answers, we will scrutinize the questions,
bearing in mind that there is too much involved to
completely cover in this column. Will it be a comprehensive military rule for
several months until the next presidential elections,
and is it likely that these will be accompanied by
parliamentary elections? This would mean comprehensive
changes at all levels of government. Or, will we see military rule for a few weeks,
during which powers will be transferred to an interim
civil governance council? Will the military play the role of the state
guarantor, on the grounds that the military
institution has been active for half a century, up
until the night of Mubarak's exit? Or will we now see
the end of the military era, in addition to the
collapse of Mubarak's regime? Will Tahrir Square's protestors continue to be a
factor dictating the formula for the coming
transitional phase? Will they be resolute? Or are
these young Egyptians now tired? How will others deal
with the revolution, namely party forces with
experience and clear projects? Will the victors agree and continue along the same
course? Or has their common cause ended with the
overthrow of Mubarak, and they will now compete in the
post-Mubarak era? Will we see a leader among the youth movement
becoming a key player? It was this youth movement that
was behind Egypt's revolution, yet the problem is that
it is an army of ants, without a clear leader. In terms of administration, do not forget that the
Egyptian state is a huge system of bureaucracy, which
usually functions in a semi-autonomous manner. Will it
be able to continue without clear leadership? And for
how long? Will the immediate leadership face security
problems, now that most figures of the former regime
have been overthrown, and how would it deal with such
problems if they occurred, especially in remote
cities? Will there be a campaign of revenge? Would the army
be able to quell this? Or will they choose to sit in
their tanks until matters on the ground are resolved?
Tunisia, to some extent, came out of a difficult
situation by transferring power whilst maintaining the
structure of the regime. Will the Egyptian leadership
choose military rule, civilian, or a mixture of both,
to maintain the regime? Or will they leave it to
collapse? Finally, and most importantly, what will be the
nature of the forthcoming governing figures, will they
be military or civil? Will we see a leader in Cairo
who can heal wounds, such as Nelson Mandela, who led
South Africa to liberation? Or will we see a divisive
figure such as Ayatollah Khomeini, leader of the
Iranian Revolution? Once we know the next leader or leaders, the
features of Egypt's crucial phase will begin to
emerge. I know that Egypt is not Iran, and that the
Mubarak regime was not the Apartheid system, but no
one can ignore the enthusiasm of the revolutionary
masses, and the impact of individual and collective
leadership in such circumstances. All this depends on
the personality of the leader, and the extent to which
he wants to eradicate the legacy of the past thirty
years. In terms of foreign affairs, will Egypt's compass
change direction towards another camp, that of the
revolutionaries? Or will it remain with the moderates?
We must not forget that Sadat left the Soviet alliance
to join the Westerners, in a personal decision, and in
doing so changed history. Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the
former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers of
Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate degree in mass communications.
He has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs. He is currently based
in Dubai.
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