14 March 2011 By Abdul Rahman
Al-Rashid At the start of 2011], Ali
Abdullah Saleh was the third longest-serving Arab head
of state, currently in power. Today, he is soon to be
crowned the longest-serving current leader, following
the ouster of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and
the toppling of the Gaddafi regime after more than 40
oppressive years in power. Saleh came to power in
1978, and has managed to remain in charge of a country
that is not easy to govern. All his predecessors were
either killed, or overthrown in adverse circumstances.
Ali Abdullah Saleh's direct predecessor, President
Ahmed al-Ghashmi, ruled for only eight months before
being assassinated by a briefcase packed with
explosives, sent to him via an envoy of the then
President of South Yemen Salim Ali Rubai. President
Ibrahim al-Hamdi, who preceded al-Ghashmi, was also
assassinated after ruling for three years. Prior to
that, President Abdul Rahman al-Iryani was removed
from power by a military coup, and so on and so forth.
Yemen has always been considered an unstable state,
with its complex demographics and rugged terrain.
Today the country is facing a severe test, as the
public have openly rejected several undemocratic
practices of the regime, such as its continuation in
power and senior positions being reserved for
relatives [of the ruling regime]. In this most
critical moment, President Saleh has discovered that
his allies have quickly abandoned him, whilst he is
being besieged by protestors, and that he now stands
alone at the helm of power. As is the case in all Arab countries, Yemen does
not possess a system for a peaceful and smooth
transfer of power. Any attempt to replace the state
leadership would be a thoroughly risky venture.
Political change might come in the form of a "quick
birth" as occurred in Egypt, where developments
occurred rapidly without sustaining heavy losses.
However we could also see a long and painful labor, as
is the case in Libya, where over 6,000 people have
lost their lives in the space of ten days. Are we about to witness Sana'a adopting the same
approach which prevailed in Cairo's Tahrir Square? Are
we going to see protestors, demonstrations, media
pressure and the peaceful transfer of power, or will
Yemen resort to gunfire, as we see in Libya today? The Yemeni question is complicated indeed. Power is
being shared by a number of tribes, and half of the
country seems to be advocating a return to secession.
President Saleh, who has survived in power for three
long decades, built his rule upon an intricate web of
balances, rivalries and alliances. Today, it appears
that his rivals have ganged up on him, whilst many of
his allies have abandoned him. Suddenly the opposition
is no longer listening to the regime's warnings
against change, which could result in the secession of
the south, or potential tribal or sectarian schisms in
the north. The regime may be correct to issue such
warnings, but the situation in Yemen has not improved
a great deal under its management, and opposition
forces are quick to highlight this. They believe that
the regime is incapable of modernizing and developing
Yemen, and regard its lengthy domination of power as
utterly unacceptable. Furthermore, the opposition
refuses to allow the regime's leaders to determine who
will succeed them. Although the Yemeni regime is now facing tremendous
challenges, as the entire political spectrum,
regardless of their differences, have ventured to take
to the streets to demand that Saleh steps down, there
remains hope that the birth of political change will
be peaceful. President Saleh has already responded to some
demands from the protestors - he agreed to abstain
from renewing his presidential term, and pledged that
power would not be bequeathed, nor would elections be
rigged. Yet Saleh's major problem when confronting the
protesting masses is his lack of credibility. The
Yemenis believe that President Saleh has promised a
lot, and broken all of these promises. The Yemeni
opposition wants to take advantage of the current
international focus on the region, in order to bring
about change no matter the cost. However if change is
forced in Yemen, this would be a risky venture that
could see the country descend into anarchy. In
contrast, a peaceful change would preserve the
president's dignity, and satisfy the demands of the
masses. However, what is clear is that if no change
occurs, the country will descend into further chaos
and potential secession. Al Rashed is the general
manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the
former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the
leading Arabic weekly magazine, Al Majalla. He is also
a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers of Al
Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate degree
in mass communications. He has been a guest on many TV
current affairs programs. He is currently based in
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