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08 April 2011 By Reason Wafawarova THE inclusive Government was born out of some
strangely named organ called the Global Political
Agreement, and the deal reached between the decade
long foes - Zanu-PF and MDC - was magnified as a
milestone achievement and an historic occurrence for
the people of Zimbabwe. It is turning out that the deal is indeed historic,
not exactly for any milestone achievements but for its
outstanding failures in achieving its lofty goals,
most outstanding of which were economic - regardless
that no economic expert was ever consulted during the
negotiations. Not even the political goals have been
significantly achieved. The so-called GPA, whatever that means, is turning
out to be no more than a little and dishonest
substance that was introduced to the people with
magnified fanfare. MDC-T took so long to be convinced and made the
negotiation process so much prolonged, not because
they really had policy causes for the delays, but were
just waiting for instructions from the West, itself
battling to place its strategic interests in the whole
development. The long wait misled many into expecting to witness
a very complicated strategic calculi and political
dynamics behind what they thought was a big deal. It only took less than a week and everyone came to
the anti-climax of the sad reality that the MDC-T
leadership took this GPA deal as no more than a
Guaranteed Personal Accruement venture, a self
enriching enterprise holding jobs in waiting for the
boys and girls. They wanted Johannes Tomana out of employment,
Gideon Gono out, provincial governors out; so they
could fill up these posts from their own ranks. They even had the temerity to create posts outside
the auspices of the Public Service Commission - the
so-called "parallel government" in the Prime
Minister's office. When MDC-T realised that Zanu-PF had no intentions
whatsoever to relinquish the posts that Morgan
Tsvangirai and his cohorts coveted, perhaps for the
very same reasons MDC-T wanted the same posts; the
outcry from the MDC-T leadership was quite loud and
appealing. The vehement desperate calls from the likes of Biti
and Chamisa became comical to those who sympathise
with Zanu-PF and quite inciting to those whose
political sympathies are with MDC-T. Demands from MDC-T were a reckless departure from
the overrated GPA itself. They were a political
creation meant to appease the hankering crowd in the
MDC-T leadership. Zanu-PF on their part wanted, and perhaps still
want the MDC-T to denounce the illegal economic
sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe by the West and to
publicly denounce the Western-hosted and sponsored
pirate radio stations beaming propaganda hostilities
into the country. Nathaniel Manheru on Saturday March 19 wrote
extensively about the role of the MDC-T in the illegal
sanctions regime imposed by the West on Zimbabwe - a
role no more than a largely insignificant call by
Tsvangirai for sanctions that were coming whichever
way, and the treacherous exercise of compiling a hit
list of personalities and companies that the West uses
as official cover for their wide-ranging sanctions
that have devastated Zimbabwe's economy in the past
decade. Asking for economic sanctions is quite different
from causing them or being able to stop them. Of
course the MDC-T did not cause economic sanctions on
Zimbabwe and neither can they stop them. The only
reason they support them is because they are imposed
in their name - and if successful they could
politically benefit the MDC-T purely on the basis of
association, itself only acceptable to the West on its
puppetry basis. According to the authors of the illegal sanctions,
all human rights abuses that may ever occur in
Zimbabwe and those whose prominence may be purely
based on fabrications and concoctions - all of such
abuses must happen in the name of the MDC-T and its
leader Morgan Tsvangirai. That is precisely why the MDC-T was appending its
name to almost every person who died in the run-up to
the 2008 June 27 runoff presidential election - always
making unsubstantiated claims that the causes for the
deaths in question were a result of politically
motivated brutalities. Of course there were genuine cases of human rights
abuses and even politically motivated deaths but in
equal measure, there were fabrications about some such
deaths. Indeed, all human rights abuses in Zimbabwe must by
definition be carried out in the name of Robert Mugabe;
otherwise they are not worthy talking about. Every
thug out there is Mugabe's thug, so is every rapist,
every thief, every corrupt person and every vandal. So we have the deadly economic sanctions wrecking
the economy of Zimbabwe in the name of stopping
Mugabe's criminals, and we have Zanu-PF vehemently
calling for the unconditional lifting of these
sanctions while the MDC-T claim that Morgan Tsvangirai
was the first person to call for the lifting of the
same sanctions, when they are not totally denying that
the same sanctions do exist in the first place. When assessing the deadly impact of the illegal
economic sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe by the West
beginning 2001, it is very important to distinguish
between dependence on the West, much of which is
inherited from the colonial era, and actual economic
sabotage. The dependence of Zimbabwe on the West is
intrinsically dangerous. It provides the economic
levers and the pressure points for destabilisation.
This means that our colonial ties to Western economic
hegemony will mean sanctions will hurt us all the
more. Economic sanctions by their very nature are a tool
for political coercion. The success should be more a
function of political costs than economic costs. This
is precisely why the number of Zimbabweans starved to
death by the sanctions regime does not matter in the
least to the senders of sanctions. The ultimate goal of economic sanctions is a
political prize and this is why the United States and
the rest of the West are very clear that their
ultimate goal in Zimbabwe is to "see the back of
Mugabe". The political costs of sanctions are mainly a
function of three factors: Firstly they are a function of the issue at stake;
in Zimbabwe's case the conflict over the land reform
programme which ousted the majority of colonially
settled white commercial farmers, and also over the
economic empowerment policies currently being pursued
by the authorities. Until the West is comfortably convinced that its
economic hegemony in Zimbabwe is significantly
restored the illegal sanctions regime is most likely
to remain in place. These political costs are also a function of the
type of sanctions employed. In Zimbabwe the illegal sanctions regime has
targetted individuals and their families and this is
as far as the declared sanctions are concerned. The
naive idea behind this move was of course to divide
the leadership of Zanu-PF - all calculated on baseless
assumptions that threatening individuals would result
in the splitting of the entire party. It appears the move backfired as the Zanu-PF
leadership has actually used the sanctions list as a
measure of cadreship; and, in fact some of the listed
people have publicly bragged of the "privilege" to be
on the books of such great powers like the United
States and the EU, or more importantly of being on the
same list with the revered Robert Mugabe. Some of those who made surprise appearances on the
list have actually ended up more prominent than they
ever thought, and of course some have gone up the
corporate ladder that way. There are also the declared sanctions against
Zimbabwe's top 40 companies including ZMDC, Zisco, ZB
Bank and many others. These sanctions have forced Zimbabwe to look for
other partners to do business with and this means the
exclusion of the West. The third function in terms of political costs
depends on the regime types of the sender and target
states. We have had high political costs by way of
sanctions in Zimbabwe because the Bush/Blair/Howard
regimes that first imposed these sanctions were
largely ultra-right wing imperialist regimes trying to
bring down a nationalist regime commandeered by the
uncompromising and highly principled Robert Mugabe. What we have now is the West demanding change in
the internal behaviour of the Zimbabwean political
leadership, and we have the Zanu-PF side of
Government, itself the most powerful side of the
inclusive Government; demanding a change of behaviour
from the external forces besieging the country. Susan Page, the Assistant Secretary for African
Affairs in the US State Department was recently in
Zimbabwe and she announced a policy shift towards
reforming Zanu-PF as opposed to the traditional US
call for the end of Zanu-PF and whatever it stands
for. It was an invitation from the beast, and those with
inclinations towards the imperial authority must watch
out. Page's visit was after the EU removal of 35 persons
from the sanctions list, persons whose only crime was
being married to people who happen to be viewed by MDC-T
list compilers as hostile to the prospect of a Morgan
Tsvangirai led government in Zimbabwe. The rather meaningless concession by the EU and the
reconciliatory tone from Page was like the October 12
2008 removal of North Korea by the US from a list of
"terrorism-sponsoring states", whatever that means.
North Korea had been listed on this infamous group
of states since 1988. George W Bush had probably
realised the futility of economic sanctions. On its part, North Korea had submitted a 60-page
activity report on its nuclear programme, itself the
real issue behind the sanctions regime in question,
apart from other strategic interests. For two countries that had a conflict dating back
to 1945 it was a bit of a wonder to many to understand
the US move and it became increasingly hard to explain
what had triggered the sudden thaw from both sides. The November 2006 Republicans' loss of majority
seats in the US Congress was largely cited as the
driving force behind Bush's unexpected behaviour. Another reason proffered was the depletion of war
potential, fettered by the Iraq and the Afghanistan
wars. Without the easy option of going to war, Bush
did not want to keep humiliating himself at the hands
of Kim Jong Il, a man considered to be extremely
arrogant by Western powers. The other explanation given is that US stakes in
North Korea have significantly diminished and that
also could have influenced Bush's shift in policy. Yet others cited Bush's fretfulness towards gaining
acclamation for his diplomatic performance toward his
term's expiry - an end whose image was not so good for
his Republican Party. Others have argued that Bush wanted to tilt North
Korean soft-liners towards his side, something we hear
the US wants to do with some people believed to be
soft-liners in Zanu-PF, meaning those Zanu-PF members
who respect and have a wish for the domination of
Western influence in the economic affairs of the
country. North Korea had its own reasons for shifting
policy. Some argue that they were facing the limit of the
nuclear threat strategy from a political and
technological perspective. Some say this was a desperate move to secure the
survival of the Kim Jong Il regime, while others argue
that the pressure of economic sanctions was now
biting. Others argue that it was insuperable isolation and
increasing pressure from the international community
that did the trick for North Korea. We have heard similar arguments when people debate
why Zanu-PF agreed to form an inclusive Government
with Tsvangirai's MDC. Through the lens of economic sanctions we can
explore beneath the surface. According to Jong-Yun Bae
and Sang-young-Rhyu the United States scrapped
"invalid US-led economic sanctions that had little
policy effectiveness." What the US was doing was to realign sanctions to
build a multilateral governance over North Korea. This
is exactly what the West wanted to do by telling South
Africa and Sadc to do Western bidding on Zimbabwe. Precisely, this is why Westerners told MDC-T to
call the agreement leading to the formation of the
inclusive Government the Global Political Agreement. They wanted to introduce a multilateral governance
system over Zimbabwe. The myth and realities of the
politics of economic sanctions are such that sanctions
become so confusing that people are divided, conflicts
abound and economies are wrecked. The political governance of economic sanctions is
complex in that there is always the need to keep up
the appearance of altruism and high level humanitarian
values, regardless of the fact that sanctions in
reality hardly have anything to do with these
humanitarian high sounding values. Essentially, economic sanctions are tools for
exercising influence, and they are strategic tools for
realising goals for diplomacy. Woodrow Wilson described economic sanctions as a
"peaceful, silent, deadly remedy" and deadly they are. To some they are viewed as a favourable alternative
to armed conflict and the often cited examples include
UN Resolution 253 of 1968 on Rhodesia; Resolution 421
of 1977 on South Africa; Resolution 1718 on North
Korea; Resolution 1737 of 2006 on Iran and Resolution
1874 of 2009 on North Korea. The reality about economic sanctions is that less
than 24 percent of all sanctions ever imposed since
1945 have produced the intended result. South Africa is often considered the most
successful example, but political changes made through
the economic sanctions were dismally meagre compared
to the cost. The majority of South Africans are still living in
dire poverty close to two decades after independence. Secondly it is those in the middle and lower
classes that often bear the brunt of economic
sanctions. Some have even argued that this leads to
the weakened potential of the middle class to carry
out an uprising even if they wanted one. They argue as
well that economic sanctions aggravate income
disparity. Many Zimbabweans would concur. Thirdly, economic sanctions can backfire,
solidifying the targeted government and rallying the
masses into Anti-America and Anti-West sentiment
-something the Anti-Sanctions Campaign has already
created in Zimbabwe. The March 2 National Anti-sanctions launch had
hundreds of thousands of people gathered to voice an
anti-West sentiment and to rally around the national
flag. Fourthly, targetted countries may seek alternative
countries to form economic ties with, eventually
excluding the sanctioning countries. This is what
happened with Zimbabwe's Look East policy - a policy
that has resulted in huge incursions into Zimbabwe's
economy by China and India - of course at the expense
of the sanctions-wielding West. Fifthly, the longer the economic sanctions remain
in place, the more the confidence of the international
community in the usefulness of the same sanctions is
undermined. Ten years of sanctioning Zimbabwe with the intended
regime change goal failing so dismally to materialise,
the confidence of the international community in the
West's diplomatic policies has greatly been
undermined, and this is why each day there are scores
of countries calling for the lifting of these
sanctions. Sadc is leading the pack with some countries
mooting the idea of doing their own national petitions
against the West's sanctions on Zimbabwe. In conclusion, the UN's own internal evaluations
since the 1990s revealed that its own economic
sanctions were not effective. Evaluations on Iraq, Burundi and Cuba show that
consequences went against the UN's own human rights
principles and in all the cases the sanctions did not
produce the intended results. As they have just done in Zimbabwe, economic
sanctions wreaked havoc on ordinary citizens of these
countries, widened social disparities, provoked
illegal and immoral behaviours like corruption and
high crime rates. All this contradicts the intentions
that are enshrined in the Charter of the United
Nations as once observed by Robert A Pape. The high unemployment levels caused by the West's
illegal sanctions in Zimbabwe are against the
principles of the UN Charter, and the 2007 cholera
outbreak that killed about 4,000 people was a gross
violation of the right to life. It is in the interest of Zimbabweans to do what the
West fears most. They do not want to face the angry masses of
Zimbabwe. If the crippling economic sanctions in place
right now are to go, the West must face angry masses
through the Anti-Sanctions Petition that people are
currently signing. Zimbabwe, we are one and together we will overcome.
It is homeland or death! Reason Wafawarova is a political writer and can
be contacted on
wafawarova@yahoo.co.uk or
reason@rwafawarova.com or visit
www.rwafawarova.com |