Muslim Brotherhood Strongest Contender
in Libya's Coming Elections
02 Feb 2012
By Franklin Lamb
It appears to this observer, from interviews and
discussions with a wide range of Libyans including
students, lawyers, judges at the Ministry of Justice,
shopkeepers and casual acquaintances that the Muslim
Brotherhood currently has very little popular support
among this pious conservative, Sunni Muslim society.
Widely expressed opinion is along these lines: "The
Brotherhood are different from how Libyans view
Islam," and "They represent outsiders and interference
in our country" , "Our revolution was not about
replacing one autocratic regime with another."
That said, the Muslim Brotherhood is odd on favorite
to win the June elections, in the view of many in
country observers of current developments.
The reason the MB is in such a relatively strong
position is that is has the support of Qatar,
assistance from the well-established MB organizations
in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, and Turkey. The
flights arriving in Tripoli from Egypt are always full
and some of the passengers are MB operatives according
to Professor "Dr. Ali", a pro-Gahafi political
scientist who has so far managed to keep his teaching
post.
The MB is far more organized, well-funded and are
working today in the neighborhoods of Libya's main
cities recruiting members and campaign organizers,
while trying to keep a low profile.They have asked
members to shave their beards, talk about clean
government, avoid arguments, and remind anxious
Libyans that "Libya is not Afghanistan" and all we
want is security, domestic peace and no foreign
interference.
A new edict issued by General Guide of the Muslim
Brotherhood organization in Egypt, Dr. Mohammad Badih
in which he writes about the possibility of his
movement imposing an Islamic Caliphate in accordance
with the principles laid out the Mulsim Brotherhood
founder, the revered Imam Hassan al-Banna, created
wide controversy in political circles in Libya just as
it did in Egypt.
The US, UK, and France are currently just watching and
guessing at developments according to the Ambassador
from one southern African country. The US State
Department is believed even by some NTC officials,
lawyers and Judges, that this observer has met with
during two days of meetings this week at the Libyan
Ministry of Justice inquiring about certain
individuals in NTC and Militia custody, to be unsure
what the US policy should be because they have mixed
feelings about the MB. Some US officials are reported
to believe that an unstoppable Muslim Brotherhood arc
or crescent is quickly jelling across the Magreb, as
it grows also in Turkey and that the MB will dominate
in Syria when and if the Assad government is toppled.
According to US Senate Foreign Relations Committee
sources, the potential utility for Washington of the
MB does not end there. Some in Congress and the Obama
administration, as well as the Zionist lobby in and
outside of Congress, hope that after all the failures
of the US administration to spark a Sunni-Shia war,
that the MB might just be the best and unexpected
weapon in achieving this goal which has been US policy
since the late 1980's.
These forces are said also to hope and beleive that
after achieving a substantial share of the next
government of Syria, the MB will quickly build itself
up in Lebanon, and give the Sunni community strong
effective leadership that has been sorely lacking the
past nearly 7 years following the assassination of PM
Rafiq Hariri, and take on Shia Hezbollah. In short,
NATO countries may sit on their hands regarding to
coming elections, drop the current attachment to NTC
officials, that has only have six months left in
office anyhow, and let the MB control Libya's next
government.
The MB in Libya is actually quite good on the issues
that are increasingly concerning potential voters as
the latter learn how to vote and participate in
political parties, which have been outlawed as
traitorous since 1972 when Revolutionary Committees
were established to make legislative and
administrative decisions.
Those issues are many and incude, but are not limited
to the following:
--Lack of security due to the militias being viewed as
increasingly aggressive with the public and fighting
among themselves as they did this week;
--growing rumors and even evidence of corruption. One
example being that there is still not money in the
Central Bank of Libya to supply local banks arouond
the country and it's a issue that is expected to
explode here once the facts become known. During the
uprising this summer, the Gadhafi government limited
bank deposit withdrawals to 500 dinars per month
(about $475). The new "government"has raised it to 750
dinars per month and it is not enough, given
approximately 18% rise in prices since this summer
when the Gadhafi government enforced anti-gouging
rules. Those rules are no longer being enforced and
prices continue to rise.
Where suspected corruption enters the bank withdrawals
problem is that according to one Central Bank official
who has spent more than 15 years in the CB office that
monitors the receipt of payments for Libya oil
shipments, even though oil is being shipped today as
well as the pay few months, zero payments have been
received at the CB. The reason is said to be that NATO
countries are being shipped oil, ( also to gas and oil
rich Qatar) free of charge under a payback arrangement
with NATO for its regime change services.
This issue is quickly becoming a scandal and will no
doubt soon make some headlines. I asked the official
is he was sure of his information and he brought over
the lady who keeps the records and she verified it
showing me records I could not read but I believe her,
and said Central Bank officials are outraged because
the money is needed at the local banks where long
lines of desperate account holding often wait hours
only to be told to return another day for their
monthly allocation of 750 dinars of their own money.
This week, this observer saw ugly and sad scenes at
banks in the neighborhood south of Green Square and
Omar Muktar street, as I tried in vain to find a
working ATM machine. One cannot but feel bad for
elderly citizens standing in the rain waiting half the
day to get a meager monthly withdrawal of their funds
on to be told to return another day when, enshallah,
there will be money for them. Citizens have reported
that they should have taken all their money out of
their bank account as soon as there were signs of
trouble last February. Now it's too late and anger is
growing.
Qatar's favorite candidate, Abdel Hakim Belhadj, head
of the Tripoli Military Council and a former leader of
the militant Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, and who is
suing UK ministers and M-16 for the part he claims
they played in secretly sending him and his wife to
Libya in March 2004 where he claims he endured seven
years of torture, has promised to fix the banking
problem.
Qatar is expected to play a major role as the June
elections draw near.
Another issue that the MB is championing includes the
need to pay the salaries of the military, finding or
creating jobs for militia fighters, many of whom are
deeply suspicious of Belhaj just as the eastern
militia continue to skirmish with those from the west.
Even women's rights are being supported by the
MB….sort of. Repairing war damage, garbage pickup,
organizing traffic which has brought some crowed
streets in downtown Tripoli to a near halt, given the
more than one million Libyans and others have flooded
into the capitol city from around the battered country
and few showing signs of wanting to leave are issued
the MB is talking about while calling for sectarian
dialogue.
Disarming the militias and pressuring young men to go
back home, given up their arms, join the police force
or a new Libyan army or get a real job are very
sensitive issues that the MB does not address with
much conviction. Privately the MB, as well as the NTC,
admits that there will be no disarmament of militias
anytime soon.
A few young men I chatted with during a demonstration
at Green (Martyrs) Square yesterday actually said they
miss the fighting and want to fight some more. "It was
really exciting and fun most of the time and I made
some great friends!" one kid from Benghazi told me. He
plans to stay in Tripoli with his Militia buddies.
Another development that will favor the Muslim
Brotherhood in the coming Libyan elections is the
draft Election law that was adopted last Monday. It
eliminates many of the strongest opponents of the
MB.The legislation regulates the election of a
national assembly charged with writing a new
constitution and form a second caretaker government.
It is expected to be finalized within a month.
It bars, with quite vague language, "former members of
Gadhafi's regime" from being candidates in the
election. Among the Judges I spoke with at the
Ministry of Justice some expressed dismay because they
said that 80% of the current staff at their Ministry,
and most other Ministries, worked there, lawyers and
judges included, under the Gadhafi regime and were
patriotic Libyans. There is going to be lots of
confusion concerning the scope of the new law and its
application.
The new election law also bans anyone who got a degree
based on academic research on the Green Book —
Gadhafi's political manifesto that laid out his theory
of government and society declaring Libya a "republic
of the masses." Thousands are covered by this
exclusion because in order to get a good position it
helped if one's CV showed studies relating to theories
of government espoused in the Green Book. The same
idea as in China when it was a good idea to study
Mao's little Red Book and add that fact to one's CV.
Academics who even wrote about Gaddafi's Green Book,
which discusses politics, economics and everyday life,
will also be barred from running under the law.
The draft election law has outraged women because it
restricts them to only 10% of the 200 election seats
and the law does not indicate who many seats will go
to which tribal areas. One woman angrily told me, "Ten
percent is about what the Brotherhood thinks we are
worth."
The NTC officials will not offer much of an electoral
impediment to the MB as it is increasingly under
attack and it begins its last six months of existence.
Last month, an umbrella group claiming to represent
70% of militia fighters demanded that the NTC granted
them 40% of its seats which it failed to do instead
appointed fairly random technocrats with some
exceptions. Mustapha Abdul Jalis plans on retiring in
June and is still being criticized for reneging on his
earlier pledge to resign following the fall of Sirte.
The coming government will likely be heavily
influenced, if not controlled by Libya's new arrival
in force, the Muslim Brotherhood. The consequences for
Libya and the Muslim Brotherhood's effect on America's
withdrawal from the region is presumably being closely
watched from Tehran to Washington DC and Tel Aviv.
Franklin Lamb is doing research in Lebanon. He is
reachable c\o fplamb@gmail.com
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