12 July 2012By Alon Ben-Meir
Although elections and political reforms are needed
in the wake of the Arab Spring, premature elections
could usher in a period of continued political
instability punctuated by violence, or introduce new
totalitarian regimes that would assume power under the
pretext of maintaining order and stability. Of
paramount importance is the formation of transitional
governments proportionally representative of all
segments of the populations for a minimum of five
years. Such a government would be tasked with writing
a new constitution and instituting gradual political
reforms, while promoting human rights and economic
development programs. Otherwise, elections will fail
to produce the desired outcome of a free and vibrant
new political and social order.
Indeed, no Arab country is ready for comprehensive
political reforms without first developing a
democratic culture, creating the environment that
encourages the formation of political parties, and
develops a clear political platform that is freely
promoted to the public. Here, Egypt, Libya, Yemen,
Iraq and even Tunisia offer good examples of where
internal socio-economic and political conditions
highlight the difficulties involved. To that end, the
situation in these Arab states strongly suggests that
unless the following seven impediments are fully
addressed, the Arab Spring will turn out to be the
cruelest winter, shattering all hopes promised by the
uprisings.
1. The Rush for Parliamentary Elections
The rush to hold elections invariably favors the
existing social and/or political groups that are the
most organized, disciplined, and rooted in society. In
Egypt and Tunisia, the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood
(MB) dominated the political scene. In Libya, however,
although there was a strong possibility that the
Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) would win the
Islamic wave was broken and continued political
instability will dominate the immature Libyan
political landscape. Generally, the inability of
secular and independent parties and those who share
similar political orientations to coalesce around a
single platform has generally boosted the performance
of the Islamists, as the former had neither the time
nor the means to organize politically and offer
alternate political platforms to the Islamists.
2. Proliferation of Parties
Fragmented democratic systems that use proportional
representation (PR), which translates votes to
legislative power, typically see a notable
proliferation of political parties that leads to the
inevitable breakup of the electorate. As a consequence
of the sweeping transformative effects of the Arab
Spring, countries such as Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia
have been pushed both from within and from outside to
hold premature elections, regardless of the prevailing
political environments that existed prior to the
revolutions. As a result, dozens of political parties
were abruptly formed (81 parties contested Tunisia's
elections, more than 40 were active in Egypt's
parliamentary elections, and Libya, having just
participated in its first and most-recent elections,
has an exorbitant 130). This mushrooming of political
parties not only confuses the public but also prevents
national consensus on any major foreign or domestic
issues or programs.
3. Inability to Establish Political
Cohesiveness
When haste dictates the scale and scope of political
campaigns, it is simply not possible for detailed
platforms to be developed in time to deal with the
litany of social ills that affect most, if not the
entire, Middle East region. On top of the numerous
political parties that are filling nascent political
vacuums formed by the Arab Spring, thousands of
independent candidates have thrown their hats in the
electoral ring. The outbreak of independent candidates
has deepened the level of political fragmentation and
enhanced the bewildering nature of post-dictatorship
Middle Eastern societies. The rush to elections, for
example, has given Libyan candidates less than three
weeks to formulate their political platforms, which
makes them extremely difficult for the public to fully
judge or comprehend. Consequently, candidates will
hardly represent any sort of constituency in a manner
that will fulfill the political aspirations of the
young and the more secular parts of the electorate.
4. No Culture for Democracy and Reform
Regardless of the timing of elections, talk of
democratic aspirations is wholly premature in
societies that have never experienced a culture of
democracy and reform. From their establishment in the
wake of World War I and II in the early 20th century,
all Arab states were led by authoritarian regimes that
have inhibited democratic expression and stunted
economic development for the majority of their
populations. The stunning speed and scale of the Arab
Spring has thrown a wrench into the old order but it
should not follow that political reforms can or must
be established at the same speed. Being that many of
these countries have never had any experience with
true democracy, holding immediate elections has
already harmed the democratic process and set back the
aspirations of those who wished to play a role in
their country's political renewal.
5. Role of the Military
In countries that have an entrenched security
apparatus (the "deep state" as it is known in Egypt),
the results of elections will be meaningless unless
efforts are made to subordinate to civilian authority
several critical government agencies including the
military, intelligence services, interior ministries
and secret police. Regardless of election results, the
military in countries such as Egypt (and perhaps soon
in Syria) will retain crucial control over the new
political system in order to prevent relinquishing
their inordinate power. The paramount concern for
military figures is maintaining final say on national
security and major foreign policy issues and in
Egypt's case, to also safeguard its economic empire.
6. Continued Violent Resistance
Many of the various parties and actors that have
emerged in the burgeoning Middle Eastern democracies
continue to resort to militant resistance in the face
of intransigence on the part of central authorities,
military or otherwise. Tahrir Square continues to be
filled with friends and foes alike of the MB, in
addition to the ruling military authorities. In spite
of the recent elections armed militias continue to run
rampant in Libya, exercising control over many parts
of the national territory. Syria is facing the
opposite scenario as the central authority continues
to employ brutal means to retain power. Since the
removal of Assad has become central to the emergence
of a new political order, the carnage in Syria can be
expected to spread even further as the regime fights
for its life.
7. Lack of Consensus Around the Nature of
Reform
In holding elections immediately after a social
revolution, there seems to be no consensus about a new
constitution and the democratic reforms that should be
enacted. This has turned the electoral processes in
Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya into horse races of national
councils, transitional authorities and military
commanders. The various types of democratic rule that
can be implemented should reject quick elections, as
the diverse sectarian societies found in the Middle
East need to be reconciled with elementary premises of
political and human freedoms. Indeed, the tribal
nature of Libya, for example, had engendered a debate
between adopting federalism over decentralization, the
latter clearly favoring tribal communities and a
preferred option in Libya as a federalist system could
exacerbate tense pre-existing ethnic and tribal
conflicts.
Regardless of how well-handled these reforms are
and however long they may take, political reforms, in
and of themselves, are insufficient unless accompanied
by sustainable economic development programs, which I
will address in a subsequent article. The public does
not just want freedom—they want food, jobs, health
care, education and a promising future. Genuine
democratic reforms will take decades to evolve. Sooner
or later, no Arab state will escape meaningful
political change. The rush to elections, however,
does not support permanent change and makes a mockery
of the democratic ideals that so many have died for.
©
EsinIslam.Com
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