The Arab Uprising: An Impediment Or An
Opportunity For Peace?
26 August 2012
By Alon Ben-Meir
There is an ongoing debate in and outside of Israel
as to whether or not this is the right time to forge
peace with the Palestinians in light of the regional
upheavals and instability. The peace process, at this
juncture, is hopelessly frozen while the expansion of
the Israeli settlements and the continued internal
Palestinian strife and factionalism increasingly dims
the prospect of reaching an agreement. That said, the
Arab Spring, which has triggered the rise of the Arab
youth against their governments and has been
accompanied by uncertainty, is not an impediment but
an opportunity to solve the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict based on a two-state solution. The reality on
the ground strongly suggests that maintaining the
status quo will be particularly detrimental to Israel.
Those inside the Netanyahu government who suggest
that now is not the right time to seek a peace
agreement with the Palestinians because of the
regional turmoil and the existential threats that
Israel now faces are both misguided and disingenuous.
On the contrary, given the threats from Iran and its
surrogate Hezbollah and the potential consequences of
a failed state in Syria, it is a particularly critical
moment for Israel to forge peace with the
Palestinians. By doing so, Israel would be in a
position to focus on the vastly more serious threats
emanating from its real adversaries and would prevent
the rise of a Palestinian fifth column, should Israel
become mired in these regional conflicts. To enhance
their positions, those who oppose peace now offer
three faulty arguments to justify their stance.
First, the Palestinians cannot be trusted and
Israel "correctly" points to the precedents of the
partial disengagement from the West Bank between 1993
and 2000, the complete withdrawal from southern
Lebanon in 2000 and the withdrawal from Gaza in 2005.
From the Israeli perspective, all of these moments
attest to the Palestinians' inability or unwillingness
to forge a permanent peace, despite having ample
opportunities.
Second, due to Palestinian factionalism and
infighting, there is no credible partner with whom
Israel can negotiate as the Palestinians have been
unable to sustain a unity government. The Netanyahu
government is convinced that even if an agreement is
reached, it will still prove transient.
Third, there are extremist Palestinian groups, such
as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and others, along with
non-Palestinian factions, including Hezbollah and Al
Qaeda, that are vehemently antagonistic toward Israel
and remain committed to its destruction.
However, none of the three arguments above can pass
careful scrutiny. These types of arguments are used as
excuses and a cover for the Netanyahu government's
deep conviction that the Jews have an inherent right
to whole "land of Israel". This remains an
indefatigable nonstarter to reaching a peace agreement
that requires significant territorial concessions,
including the conversion of Jerusalem to the capital
of Israeli and Palestinian states. From the Netanyahu
government's perspective, the conditions of no peace
and no war that currently prevail are preferable to a
compromise of the Jews' historical rights and through
a strong and determined will, Israel will eventually
triumph.
In light of the reality on the ground, which both
the Israelis and the Palestinians alike must face by
virtue of their inevitable coexistence, Israel must
act now because the passage of time may well be to its
detriment, if not its very existence. There are three
critical issues that increasingly work against Israel.
Considering Israel's demographic situation, its
evolutionary path has shifted radically as emigration
from Israel over the past two decades (about one
million) is roughly equal to the immigration into
Israel for the same period. This, along with low birth
rates relative to the Palestinian population,
continues to erode the sustainability of Israel's
national character as a Jewish state. Should this
growing demographic imbalance between the Jewish and
Palestinian populations continue, Israel will be
forced to either establish a single state (an
unacceptable proposition for them as it will instantly
make the Jewish population a minority) or resort to
apartheid policies that will be vehemently rejected by
the international community.
In recent years Israel has been fortunate that Gaza
and the West Bank were generally quiet with limited
resistance to the occupation and only marginal rocket
attacks from Gaza that the Israeli military was able
to handle with ease. Maintaining the occupation,
however, and the continuance of the creeping expansion
of the settlements, coupled with the uprisings of Arab
youth against their own governments, now make it only
a matter of time before the Palestinians will be
inspired, if not forced, to rise against the
occupation. They will not remain indefinitely passive,
as they clearly see that the longer they wait, the
more their land will be consumed, resulting in an
irreversible reality on the ground that will deny the
rise of an independent and viable state.
Moreover, Israel will continue to face intensifying
pressure from the international community due to the
perpetuation of the status quo, which will
dramatically increase Israel's isolation. For the
United States and the European Union, who continue to
be steadfast supporters of Israel, the lack of
progress has a destabilizing effect on the region,
which directly and indirectly impacts their national
strategic interests and undermines Israel's national
security. Israel should not be surprised if its
closest allies, especially the US, decide to advance
their own frameworks for peace largely based on prior
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in an attempt to save
Israel from charting its own disastrous path.
In a broader context, Israel's current enemies,
specifically Iran and Hezbollah, will continue to
exploit the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to their
advantage. To counteract this encroaching threat,
Israel can at least begin to neutralize its
antagonists' positions by taking steps that open the
door for a negotiated solution and normalization of
relations with the Arab states by accepting the Arab
Peace Initiative as a basis for negotiations. While
this strategy may not initially and necessarily change
the principle objection to Israel's very existence by
actors such as Iran and Hezbollah, Israel could shift
the geopolitical conditions in the region in its
favor. As I was convincingly told time and time again
by top Arab officials, the Arab states are prepared to
move toward establishing full diplomatic relations
with Israel once an Israeli-Palestinian peace is
achieved. They cite the changing dynamics in the
region in the wake of the Arab spring and the ensuing
battle between Sunnis led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey
and Shiites led by Iran who seeks regional hegemony.
Despite the complex situation that Israel finds
itself in, the basic question remains: how much longer
can it sustain its present course without experiencing
horrific and self-inflicted wounds? Israel must face
the inevitable now while it is still in a strong
position to negotiate an agreement with the
Palestinians, a population that has, and can continue
to, withstand the test of time. Unlike the precipitous
withdrawal from Southern Lebanon and Gaza, any
agreement with the Palestinians should be made with
the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and should
be based on a quid pro quo that would involve phased
withdrawals from the West Bank over a few years in
order to foster mutual trust and normalization of
relations while ensuring Israel's national security.
Set against the context of the Arab Spring, Israel
remains an oasis of stability with its economic,
military and technological advantages continuing to
strengthen over time. The inability of the
Palestinians to change the dynamics in their favor has
deepened the Israelis' complacency while removing any
sense of urgency to solve the conflict, as they remain
intoxicated by their military prowess and the
deceptive calm before the storm. Simply put, passively
waiting for the region to achieve a modicum of
stability while Israel further entrenches itself in
the territories is a non-starter as the Arab upheavals
are not a fading phenomenon and will remain an engine
of change for years, if not decades, to come. The
Palestinian's turn will come sooner than expected.
I must emphasize that the Palestinians, by their
own violent actions and hostile public utterances,
have directly contributed to the Israelis' skepticism
and deepening of their conviction that the
Palestinians are not partners to be trusted nor are
they a population with whom they can negotiate a
lasting peace. That said, it is up to Israel not to
allow past experiences to blur its vision for the
future and it must now chart its own future course by
ending the occupation under specific "rules of
disengagement" with the Palestinian Authority. Israel
must never abandon the principles of equality and
human rights regardless of race, color or religion, as
they are the very basis on which the state arose from
the ashes of the Holocaust.
Netanyahu will eventually have to answer to the
Israeli public as to what he has achieved over the
past four years. The Israelis must now determine
whether or not Netanyahu has made the conflict with
the Palestinians considerably worse since he took
office in 2009 and what price Israel will have to pay
for his misguided and ominous policies.