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16 September 2012 By Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed This is what besieged Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
believes. While it is true, despite the contradiction,
to say that Iran supports al-Assad with money, oil,
arms and even fighters, and at the same time claim
that Iran, and its agents Hezbollah, have abandoned
the al-Assad regime in the midst of its greatest
crisis! Despite the huge assistance that Tehran continues
to provide to Damascus, there can be no doubt that al-Assad
is not content or satisfied with the performance of
his allies. He is feeling pressured by them, while he
also expected them to provide him with more support.
For over a year, al-Assad has threatened to ignite
unthinkable regional collapse, making reference to red
lines that must not be transgressed, however nothing
of the sort has materialized, and the fire has
remained contained to Syria. Al-Assad had expected the Iranians to confront the
Gulf States and pressure them to stop the Syrian
revolutionaries. He also believed that Hezbollah would
rush to fight Israel, inciting a war similar to the
2006 war that ignited the entire region. This would
thereby force the US, France and Britain to stop
supporting the Syrian revolution in order to put an
end to the regional chaos. However al-Assad today is very disappointed; the
Iranians did not attack the Gulf, and Hezbollah did no
more than stage demonstrations in order to entrap the
border with Israel; demonstrators sang and danced,
however no Hezbollah element fired a single bullet.
A single minor agent remained for al-Assad, Ahmed
Jibril, head of the so-called Popular Front of the
Liberation of Palestine –General Command [PFLP-GC].
Al-Assad thought that perhaps he could open a front
with Israel; however this failed and the Palestinian
fighters – based in Syria – announced their support
for the revolution. During a television interview, Jibril spoke about
al-Assad's hopes, revealing that the Iranian
leadership had informed the Syrian president that they
would not leave Syria exposed to aggression. Jibril
said that the Iranians had told al-Assad that they had
warned the Turks on more than one occasion not to play
with fire, and that any intervention represented a red
line for Tehran. Official Syrian state media was forced to promote
and report rumors, some of which perhaps placed
Syria's allies and rivals on a collision course. For
example, Syrian media quoted head of Iran's Shura
Council Ali Larijani as saying that "the fall of
Bashar al-Assad in Syria is an introduction to the
fall of Kuwait." However there has been no
confirmation that Larijani issued any such threat.
Syria media also quoted similar statements by Russian
officials, and this includes statements threatening
the states that oppose the Bashar al-Assad regime with
a war that will burn everything. However we have also
failed to find any confirmation or corroboration of
these statements. Following this, there was an alleged
interview with Henry Kissinger, during which he
reportedly stated that the collapse of the al-Assad
regime would benefit Israel, which will occupy more
Arab states. Of course, it turned out that this
fabricated interview had initially appeared in a
satirical publication, and Damascus had rushed to
promote it! What did al-Assad expect from his allies? How did
they fail to live up to his expectations? He believed
that the Iranians and Russians would cooperate and
coordinate with one another to open a battlefront with
Turkey to intimidate the Erdogan government and force
Ankara to kick out the Syrian opposition organizations
that represent the greatest threat to his rule.
However the Russians and Iranians ultimately failed to
do this. Al-Assad was hoping for a war in the Gulf,
centering around Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait,
exploiting sectarianism to threaten the political
regimes there, however this also did not materialize.
He hoped to wake up one morning to find Jordan or
Egypt requesting his support against Israeli
aggression due to pre-planned actions, however months
passed while the world remained engrossed with a
single event, namely the collapse of the al-Assad
regime, to the point that this is now inevitable. I
previously wrote that Hassan Nasrallah was too smart
to throw away his capabilities in order to rescue a
regime whose collapse is guaranteed, and even if he
had sent his men to fight alongside al-Assad and his
pro-regime Shabiha militia, he ignored al-Assad's
desire to open battlefronts inside Lebanon or start a
war with Israel. This is what he tried to alert
everybody to when he commented on the kidnapping of
Syrian and Turkish nationals in Lebanon, saying
"understand this as you like; we have no authority
over the kidnappers of Shiites. The Russians, the
Iranians and Hezbollah are well aware that the al-Assad
regime is collapsing, and they have known this for
approximately a year. They are now only interested in
mitigating the damage that his will have on
themselves, as well as their interests, while also
supporting a new reality in post-Assad Syria, such as
cutting Syria off from alliances or inciting a civil
war that will preoccupy the Syrians for the coming
years.
Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya
television. He is also the former editor-in-chief of
Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in
the daily newspapers of Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is
a US post-graduate degree in mass communications. He
has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs.
He is currently based in Dubai. |