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11 September 2012 By Amir Taheri What do politicians do when they cannot do much?
Well, it depends on time and place. However,
regardless of time and place, most political lame
ducks try to snatch a bit of relevance from the teeth
of ridicule by playing with words. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, remember him?, is no
exception. He has one more year to go before his second and
last term as President of the Islamic Republic is up.
And, yet, he is already fading into oblivion. Tehran
newspapers report his few activities in their inside
pages. Controlled by his rivals, the state-owned radio
and television hardly mention him. The Khomeinist
state is so gripped by the cult of personality built
around Ali Khamenei, the mullah known as the "Supreme
Guide", that it allows no one else to shine. Ahmadinejad is left with little room for manoeuvre.
His crime was that he tried, ever so gingerly, to
define himself as a leader with a base of his own. Now all he can do is to play with words. Khamenei
describes the "Arab Spring" as "Islamic Awakening" and
claims that Tunisians, Egyptians, Libyans, Yemenis,
but not Syrians, rose against their respective regimes
because they loved him and wished to live under
"Walayat al-Faqih". To counter that, Ahmadinejad has labelled the Arab
revolt as "Human Awakening", hinting that something
similar could happen in Iran. Little by little, Ahmadinejad has been shorn of his
presidential powers. People he appoints are dismissed
on orders from courts ran by Khamenei henchmen. His
executive decisions are vetoed by the Islamic Majlis,
the ersatz parliament, on orders from the "Supreme
Guide". Khamenei sends his own minions on diplomatic
missions without even informing Ahmadinejad. Key
decisions on the economy have been transferred to
Khamenei's office. The "Supreme Guide" is also
spreading rumours that the very position of the
president may be abolished. Increasingly, Ahmadinejad
is looking like the little shrinking man of the
cartoons. Against such a background, one might wonder who
would want to be president of a non-existent republic?
Well, the answer, surprisingly, is: many. The reason, of course, is that one is never short
of ambitious men in any system. Even if a position is
not worth a bucket of lukewarm spit, one is sure to
find men queuing up to win it. But why does the system in which the "Supreme
Guide" has absolute power, needs a president or even a
prime minister. The answer is simple: despotic systems
need to keep alive the possibility of change. In the old times, the potentates would calm down
rebellious spirits by rotating the viziers according
to the mood of the moment. In modern despotic systems,
such as that created by Stalin in Russia, changes in
the administrative personnel were used to nurture the
myths of " hawks and doves." For example, people
inside and outside the Soviet Union thought that
Malenkov was more "liberal" than Stalin and Khrushchev
more lenient than Malenkov. A whole industry of
Kremlin-watchers was built around that conceit. The Khomeinist regime is using a similar tactic.
In 1979, the Carter administration believed that
once the pro-American faction led by Mehdi Bazargan
was in power all would be well between Tehran and
Washington. After all, five of Bazargan's ministers
were US citizens while at least one was a CIA agent.
Once Bazargan was kicked out, Washington found
other "moderates"-from the poor adventurer Sadeq
Ghotbzadeh to the hapless Abol-Hassan Banisadr. This
game has been played for 30 years with Khamenei, as
president, then Hashemi Rafsanjani and Muhammad
Khatami and, eventually, Ahmadinejad, being identified
as potential "moderates" before being exposed as
poltroons in a political version of the comedia del
arte. Remember, Ahmadinejad was initially cast as a "new
generation" leader interested in good management and
likely to pursue pragmatic policies. It is no surprise that the Khomeinist regime is
looking for a new "moderate pragmatic" figure to field
as the next president. The idea is to fool some
Iranians into believing that things might change for
the better in a year's time. At the same time, the
Western powers could be hoodwinked into easing their
sanctions in the hope of making a deal with the next
"moderate" leader in 2013. The new "moderate" figure is an old one. He is Ali-Akbar
Walayati who served as Khomeinist Foreign Minister for
13 years. For the past decade he has been advisor to
Khamenei for foreign affairs. The buzz being built
around him is that he is a pragmatic who could develop
a realistic foreign policy. The fact that some
staunchly pro-Israel figures are lobbying for him in
Washington is cited as a sign that he rejects
Ahmadinejad's Holocaust-denying postures. However, Walayati has two problems. The first is that he is subject to an international
arrest warrant for his role in the murder in Berlin of
four Iranian Kurdish leaders and their interpreter in
1992. This means that he cannot travel to most parts
of the world without risking arrest by the Interpol.
Walayati's second problem is, in fact, not his
fault. He is neither a moderate nor a pragmatic
because, in a system gone mad on pseudo-revolutionary
radicalism, he cannot be either. Even if he wanted,
Walayati could never be a moderate or a pragmatic in
the mad house built by Khomeini. And, let me let you on to a bigger secret: even if
Khamenei himself wanted to become moderate and
pragmatic he would not be able to pull it off. The
Khomeinist system cannot be reformed except in the
wrong direction, that is to say to make it even more
deadly and devious. Under Khomeinism, in Iran any positive change
within the regime is but an illusion. If some useful idiots wish to continue deceiving
themselves that is their problem. They will end up
missing Ahmadinejad as they ended up missing Banisadr,
Rafsanjani and Khatami. Amir Taheri was born in Ahvaz, southwest Iran,
and educated in Tehran, London and Paris. He was
Executive Editor-in-Chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran
(1972-79). In 1980-84, he was Middle East Editor for
the Sunday Times. In 1984-92, he served as member of
the Executive Board of the International Press
Institute (IPI). Between 1980 and 2004, he was a
contributor to the International Herald Tribune. He
has written for the Wall Street Journal, the New York
Post, the New York Times, the London Times, the French
magazine Politique Internationale, and the German
weekly Focus. Between 1989 and 2005, he was editorial
writer for the German daily Die Welt. Taheri has
published 11 books, some of which have been translated
into 20 languages. He has been a columnist for Asharq
Alawsat since 1987. Taheri's latest book "The Persian
Night" is published by Encounter Books in London and
New York. |