15 September 2012 By Tariq Alhomayed Within the space of a few days
Moscow has flooded us with a sea of statements about
the situation in Syria. On the one hand there are the
statements of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and on
the other hand there are the statements of Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov, in addition to the remarkable
behavior of the Deputy Russian Foreign Minister, who
has given at least three interviews this week alone!
All Russia's recent statements, from the President
to the Foreign Minister and the Deputy Foreign
Minister, can be considered to be carrying different
views and contains messages within; they say that
Moscow is negotiating, and buying and selling, on the
Syrian issue. The strongest of these statements was
issued by President Putin, who talked about the need
to "determine the future and ensure the security of
all the participants of the domestic political
process", i.e. ensure the security of affiliates to
the regime, and al-Assad himself. Putin's most
striking remarks came in his interview with a Russian
television station, when he said: "We treat everyone
with equal respect. We also get on well with Saudi
Arabia and other countries; I have cultivated a warm
personal relationship with the custodian of the two
Islamic shrines". This reference alone is worthy of
interest, especially after the statements exchanged
between Saudi Arabia and Russia on Syria! Of course, it cannot be said that these recent
statements, which have begun to hint of the post-Assad
phase, are just a public relations campaign to
embellish the image of Russia in the region. Russia
has also returned today to talk about the need to hold
a conference on Syria on its territory, and the
possibility of returning to the UN Security Council
once again. The facts on the ground confirm that
Russia is not acting now just to improve its image,
given America's threat that Washington will work with
its allies to support the Syrian opposition, and of
course the notable French moves. Yet there is
something else that confirms what I am saying here,
which I heard from an informed source, namely that
Moscow has passed on specific questions via a third
party to an Arab state that is influential and active
in seeking to defend the Syrians and protect them from
al-Assad's killing machine. According to my source,
Russia has asked: "If we reach an agreement, where
will al-Assad go in the event of him stepping down?
Who can guarantee that he will not be prosecuted
internationally? Who will ensure Russia's interests in
Syria after al-Assad's departure?" This is a summary
of Russia's questions, from which we can deduce the
following points. Firstly, it is clear that Moscow has become
receptive to the idea of al-Assad's departure, and
this is supported by the fact that President Putin
said in his recent television interview: "We realize
that this country needs a change, but this doesn't
mean that change should come with bloodshed". The
second observation we can glean from Russia's
questions is that Moscow is not interested in who will
succeed al-Assad, in terms of the individual or the
regime, but it is only concerned with preserving its
own interests there. Here it is worth recalling Sergey
Lavrov's statement a few days ago, after his meeting
with the US Secretary of State, when he said that the
sanctions imposed on al-Assad and Iran have started to
have an impact on the Russian banking sector, i.e.
that the Syrian issue is economic as well as
political. The question that must be asked here is: Would it
be wrong to negotiate with Moscow now to ensure the
departure of al-Assad? The answer is simple: we should
try, for what is certain is that the price is low and
will only get lower! Comments 💬 التعليقات |