Syria And The Shi'ite Pincer: The Features Of The Iranian Plan For Post-Assad Syria
15 March 2013
By Tariq Alhomayed
On 1 December 2011 I wrote a column asking whether the
Shi'ite star had set, in reference to the
repercussions of the Syrian revolution at the time and
what they would entail. Today, two years on from the
outbreak of the revolution, we are now in a new phase.
We are now seeing a Shi'ite pincer being operated on
Syria, from two sides, and the hand holding that
pincer is Iran.
The Syrian rebels have made undeniable progress on the
ground and there are now concrete international
movements. Furthermore, the Arab stance is escalating,
especially in light of the concluding statement of the
recent meeting of Arab foreign ministers, which
"stressed the right of each state according to its
wishes to offer all types of self-defense, including
military, to support the resilience of the Syrian
people and the Free [Syrian] Army." Given all of the
above, Iran's allies, Iraq and Hezbollah, are
beginning to move militarily against the Syrian
rebels, flanking them from Iraq and Lebanon, thus
putting the Syrian revolution at the center of the
jaws of the Shi'ite pincer. The question is why?
The quick and obvious answer is that Iran has accepted
that the fall of the Assad regime is inevitable and
only a matter of time. Therefore it is pushing its
allies to intervene militarily now not to defend Al-Assad,
but to send a message to the regional powers and the
international community that Iran will not stand by
idly, and that its primary project—namely to spread
the Khomeini revolution and extend Tehran's influence
in the region—will not be destroyed that easily
through the overthrow of the Assad regime. Yet Tehran
is well aware that the fall of Assad would mark the
end of its project in the region, meaning an internal
crisis for Iran, not for Hezbollah or Nuri Al-Maliki.
Therefore, Iran is mobilizing now through the Shi'ite
pincer—Hezbollah and Maliki's forces—to impose a fait
accompli on Syrian territory for the post-Assad
regime, regional powers, and the international
community. Iran wants to impose this before it has to
face its own internal dues, and the difficult days
that will follow Assad's downfall. In doing so, Iran
has effectively become responsible for the remnants of
the Assad regime, the Alawi sect, and anyone who wants
to fight the new regime in Syria. Iran is doing all
this—placing Syria between its Shi'ite pincers—to say
that there will be no Syria without Assad or without
Iranian influence.
These are the features of the Iranian plan for post-Assad
Syria, and this is what the Syrians must be aware of.
The revolutionaries must not miss an opportunity here
when it comes to Iran. The matter also requires
regional and international awareness, for as I have
said before Iran's real power lies in subversion and
not in providing solutions. Therefore, Tehran should
not be granted any more responsibility than it
deserves, and the world must be ready to thwart its
project through a clear agreement on the features of
post-Assad Syria. It must send a clear message to
Tehran that its pincer will break, and this can only
be achieved through actions, not words.
Tariq Alhomayed is the Editor-in-Chief of Asharq Al-Awsat,
the youngest person to be appointed that position. He
holds a BA degree in Media studies from King Abdul
Aziz University in Jeddah, and has also completed his
Introductory courses towards a Master's degree from
George Washington University in Washington D.C. He is
based in London.
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