The US Is Talking To Iran, But About What? It May Lead To An Even Bigger Conflict In The Future
03 January 2014
By Amir Taheri
Is Washington beginning to feel
buyer's remorse about the deal struck in Geneva over
Iran's nuclear program? Judging by recent statements
by several members of the administration, that might
well be the case, although President Barack Obama's
foreign policy often defies rational analysis.
A long-time supporter of the Khomeinist regime in
Iran, US Vice-President Joseph Biden has warned the
mullahs against reverting to their cheat-and retreat
tactic. US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, another
former senator starry-eyed about the Islamic Republic,
has tried to dash the mullahs' hope of driving the US
out of the Middle East anytime soon. Even the US
Secretary of State, the hapless John Kerry, is no
longer waxing lyrical about visiting Iran together
with his half-Iranian grandson.
The strongest indication of buyer's remorse has come
from National Security Advisor Susan Rice. In a
television interview last Sunday she insisted that the
sanctions imposed on Iran could only be lifted with a
putative resolution of the United Nations Security
Council. More importantly, she insisted, any such
resolution would include the possibility of
re-imposing the sanctions in response to any Iranian
attempt at cheating. Translated into plain language
this means that Iran should convince the Security
Council that it is not trying to build a nuclear
arsenal. Thus we are back to square one, with Iran
required to prove a negative.
As things stand today it is practically impossible for
Iran to maintain its nuclear program at the current
level while meeting the litmus test fixed by Rice. As
far as scientific, technical and industrial means are
concerned, Iran has already crossed the so-called
threshold after which it would be able to build a
bomb, if it so decided. Even if Iran were to carry out
all its commitments under the Geneva deal it would
still not revert to its pre-threshold position. This
is why the six resolutions already passed by the
Security Council were designed to dismantle the
Iranian nuclear program and transfer all the enriched
uranium stock abroad, not to freeze things at the
current high level. The most that the Geneva deal
could achieve would be to put Iran's plutonium project
on hold for six months while its uranium enrichment
program is frozen at five per cent. Thus, Iran could
build its stocks flow of enriched uranium without
limit, with an eye on the possibility of breaking the
freeze deal and resuming enrichment at higher levels
and a faster pace when and if the leadership decides
to make a bomb.
Against such a background, Rice's statement makes
little sense. Passing a seventh resolution to
re-impose the lifted sanctions would be of little use
if Iran has already built a nuclear arsenal. A version
of that policy has already been tried and tested in
the case of North Korea, which made a series of deals
with Washington but, nevertheless, ended up building a
nuclear arsenal. In any case, it is a safe bet that if
Rice were to table a seventh resolution at the
Security Council, the Russians would simply veto it,
if only to thumb their nose at Washington.
The only sanctions that seem to have actually had an
effect are those imposed by the US in conjunction with
European and Middle Eastern allies. Thus the threat of
another UN resolution is unlikely to make much of an
impression on the mullahs in Tehran. In that context,
the Obama administration's policy suffers from a major
contradiction.
Obama and Kerry have made it clear they will do
everything they can to prevent the US Congress from
imposing any new sanctions. In other words, the
administration has transformed itself into a lobby
group for the Khomeinist regime.
Paradoxically, Obama's policy makes it more difficult
for anyone in Tehran to argue for a genuine attempt at
defusing this time bomb. With Obama promising to veto
any new Congressional sanctions against Tehran, and
Rice making any final outcome conditional to a Russian
veto at the Security Council, the mullahs have no
reason to abandon their nuclear ambitions, whatever
they may be.
The continuation of this diplomatic rigmarole is bad
for Iran, bad for the Middle East and bad for world
peace in general. Already crumbling, the so-called
"Geneva deal" might give former Iran President Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani's faction a tactical advantage in
the power struggle going on in Tehran. It might also
give Obama a fig leaf to cover his diplomatic
nakedness until his term ends in 2016.
The only realistic approach would be to return to the
Security Council resolutions already passed, demanding
that Iran comply with them in exchange for a lifting
of sanctions.
Between 1992 and 2003, the international community led
by the US tried to make a deal with Saddam Hussein by
circumventing a series of resolutions passed by the
Security Council. Former UN Secretary-General Kofi
Annan even won a Nobel Peace prize for one of the many
deals made with Saddam. The net result, however, was
to persuade Saddam that he could do as he pleased and
to silence all in his entourage who argued against his
adventurist policies.
I am not against talking to the mullahs and trying to
find a diplomatic solution. What matters is what the
talks are about. The talks should be about
implementing the UN resolutions, which were passed
because the Khomeinist regime violated the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and publicly admitted
to having done so.
Regardless of what Rice says, the Geneva format is
deigned to circumvent the UN resolutions. This is why,
far from defusing the situation, it may lead to an
even bigger conflict in the future.
Amir Taheri was born in Ahvaz, southwest Iran, and
educated in Tehran, London and Paris. He was Executive
Editor-in-Chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran (1972-79).
In 1980-84, he was Middle East Editor for the Sunday
Times. In 1984-92, he served as member of the
Executive Board of the International Press Institute (IPI).
Between 1980 and 2004, he was a contributor to the
International Herald Tribune. He has written for the
Wall Street Journal, the New York Post, the New York
Times, the London Times, the French magazine Politique
Internationale, and the German weekly Focus. Between
1989 and 2005, he was editorial writer for the German
daily Die Welt. Taheri has published 11 books, some of
which have been translated into 20 languages. He has
been a columnist for Asharq Alawsat since 1987.
Taheri's latest book "The Persian Night" is published
by Encounter Books in London and New York.
©
EsinIslam.Com
Add Comments