The Struggle To Succeed Khamenei Has Already Begun: In Their Quest For Supreme Power, Rafsanjani And Mesbah-Yazdi
22 October 2014
By Amir Taheri
During his recent stay in New York, President Hassan
Rouhani hosted a "private dinner" for a number of
former US officials, oil executives, and lobbyists.
According to several participants, Rouhani tried to
pass on a simple message: If the US does not help him
clinch a deal on the nuclear issue, the next elections
in Iran could return people like "that man" to power.
Earlier, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif had relayed the
same message at the Council on Foreign Relations in
New York. "If you don't help us, you could get that
man again," he warned. But who is "that man," the
person whom Rouhani and Zarif are trying to present as
a bête-noire for the Americans?
The answer is former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. To
be sure, Ahmadinejad does not have a constituency of
his own and is unlikely to win any elections without
the say-so of the "deep state," that is to say the
military-security apparatus, the network of political
mullahs, and interest groups within the business
community.
Rouhani and his political mentor, former President
Hashemi Rafsanjani, however, hope that a deal with the
US would give them momentum to seize control of the
Islamic Majlis, the ersatz parliament, next year, and
then capture the Assembly of Experts, which, in turn,
chooses the "Supreme Guide."
There is no doubt that within the Khomeinist
establishment, the Rafsanjani faction is the least
hostile to the United States. Rafsanjani has always
fancied himself as an Iranian version of Deng
Xiaoping, the leader who closed the chapter of Maoist
revolution and opened the way for China's inclusion
into the global system.
Rafsanjani's argument is that the US does not have any
problem with the "Islamic" character of the Khomeinist
regime. In fact, there are four "Islamic Republics,"
and three have normal and, at times, even close ties
with Washington. Provided the Khomeinist regime does
not threaten US interests, Washington couldn't care
less what the regime does inside Iran. The fact that
China is world number-one for number of executions has
not prevented it from becoming Washington's closest
trading partner (the Islamic Republic in Iran is
second!)
For more than two decades Rafsanjani has shed
metaphorical tears over the mistake he made after
Khomeini's death in 1989 by propelling Ali Khamenei, a
junior mullah, into the position of the "Supreme
Guide." At the time, Rafsanjani believed that by
becoming president he would seize control of the
powerful machinery of state while Khamenei, a low
profile figure interested in poetry and sitar, would
fade away.
He was proved wrong. A system built around the concept
of velayat e-faqih (custodianship of the Islamic
jurist) could not jettison its central organizing
principle. Rafsanjani also underestimated Khamenei,
who turned out to be a tough leader dedicated to the
bizarre ideology of Khomeinism.
A quarter of a century later, Rafsanjani is now toying
with the idea of correcting his mistake by becoming
"Supreme Guide." His faction has won the presidency
and hopes to win the Majlis next year. If it succeeds,
the way could be open for also winning the Assembly of
Experts in May 2016. And then, who knows?
This is why Rafsanjani has been in campaign mode for
the past year or so. Moving at top speed, he has
published several volumes of his memoirs, designed to
remind people of his close ties with the late
Ayatollah Khomeini, and his supposed successes as a
two-term president. He has granted over 40 interviews,
including several with Western news outlets. After
years of not being allowed to step out of Tehran,
Rafsanjani has also been travelling all over the
country, projecting himself as a potential savior of
the nation. The foreign ministry in Tehran has been
ordered to include a meeting with Rafsanjani in the
programme of all foreign dignitaries coming to the
Islamic Republic. Thus, Rafsanjani's face is plastered
on front pages in Tehran almost daily. The former
president has also orchestrated a campaign of "dirty
tricks" against mullahs whom he regards as potential
rivals for the top position.
Right now his main target is Ayatollah Muhammad-Taqi
Mesbah-Yazdi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, who
has publicly accused Rafsanjani's faction of trying to
ditch the revolution and sell Iran to the American
"Great Satan." Rafsanjani has accused Mesbah-Yazdi of
having opposed revolutionary action against the Shah.
Mesbah-Yazdi has retaliated by accusing Rafsanjani of
underhand dealings with the Mojahedin e-Khalq, an
Islamist guerrilla group active inside Iran in the
1970s and later opposed to Khomeini.
Khamenei's recent brief hospitalization gave the
succession fight added intensity. Figures close to
Rasfanjani, notably the mullah Qorban-Ali
Dorri-Najafabadi, have publicly raised the issue of
succession. That Khamenei is younger than Rafsanjani
and Mesbah-Yazdi has not dampened speculation
regarding his eventual demise. If he lives as long as
Khomeini, Khamenei would have another 13 years to go.
Also, he may do constitutional jujitsu with amendments
that replace the presidency with a prime minister. He
has publicly raised the issue, suggesting it might be
on the agenda within four years. In any case, the next
Assembly of Experts could remain in place until 2024,
by which time Khamenei, Rafsanjani and Mesbah would
all have 90 candles on their birthday cakes.
The US would be foolish to become involved in
factional feuds in Tehran. The mullahs' republic in
Iran is not the People's Republic in China and "Obama
in Tehran" could only come as a caricature of "Nixon
in Beijing."
In their quest for supreme power, Rafsanjani and
Mesbah-Yazdi face another problem. Unlike Khamenei,
they wear white turbans, which mean they are not
descendants of Fatimah and Ali and thus not part of
the Ahl el-Beit (People of the House). A black turban
may well merge from the shadows to inject a dark horse
note in the drama.
Amir Taheri was born in Ahvaz,
southwest Iran, and educated in Tehran, London and
Paris. He was Executive Editor-in-Chief of the daily
Kayhan in Iran (1972-79). In 1980-84, he was Middle
East Editor for the Sunday Times. In 1984-92, he
served as member of the Executive Board of the
International Press Institute (IPI). Between 1980 and
2004, he was a contributor to the International Herald
Tribune. He has written for the Wall Street Journal,
the New York Post, the New York Times, the London
Times, the French magazine Politique Internationale,
and the German weekly Focus. Between 1989 and 2005, he
was editorial writer for the German daily Die Welt.
Taheri has published 11 books, some of which have been
translated into 20 languages. He has been a columnist
for Asharq Alawsat since 1987. Taheri's latest book
"The Persian Night" is published by Encounter Books in
London and New York.
©
EsinIslam.Com
Add Comments