Iraq Could Become A Quagmire For Iran: The Entrance Of Iran’s Forces Into Iraq, Syria Shows Another Side Of Tehran
14 January 2015
By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
A recent Associated Press report investigated Iran’s
growing domination of Iraq under the cover of
supporting it against the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria (ISIS) organization. According to the sources
quoted in the report, the Iranians have sold Iraq
nearly 10 billion US dollars’ worth of weapons to
fight the terrorists with. Although these shipments
include Kalashnikov rifles, rocket launchers, and
ammunition, the actual value of this weaponry may not
exceed 50 million dollars.
Of course, it’s needless to explain that 10 billion
dollars is a massive amount of money, enough to buy
advanced weapons from major arms exporters instead of
rusty simple arms from Iran. But the objective was to
fund Iran’s military at a time when it is confronting
domestic economic pressures.
The Iraqis, who are currently overjoyed with this
Iranian support, will in the future end up complaining
about Tehran’s domination over them. They will
complain that they cannot freely take decisions
according to their national interests. Iraq will then
become submissive to Iran due to the latter’s
increased political and security influence—just as
Lebanon came under Syria’s influence in the 1970s when
the latter’s troops entered the country to save it
from Palestinian militias and only withdrew after 30
years of a quasi-occupation thanks to pressure from
the UN Security Council.
Iraq, too, will become an Iranian farm which Iran’s
Revolutionary Guard Corps, politicians, mediators and
brokers exploit. Iraqis then will find problems coming
from Iran increasing by the year, just like what
happened to the Lebanese people who brought the
Syrians into their country only to find out later that
the chaos and violence of Palestinian militias were
less than that caused by the Syrian army. The Syrians
controlled the Lebanese population, exploited the
country and dictated all of its affairs, from the
smallest details to major decisions such as who would
become president, prime minister, and speaker of
parliament. They killed whoever disagreed with them.
The Iranian regime will go as far as to humiliate the
Iraqis after claiming credit for protecting Baghdad
from an ISIS invasion. We all know that the terrorist
organization ISIS turned away from the capital and
headed towards Mosul and Kurdistan when the Iranians
weren’t even there to confront it. Shi’ite leaders
will pay a higher price than others for the Iranian
presence on Iraqi soil because Iranian influence will
remain limited in Sunni areas no matter how much their
military and security presence expands in other parts
of Iraq.
A Shi’ite leader claimed that the United States
supported Sunni extremists over the past years and
that it must accept Shi’ite extremists as well. This
is an indicator of how Iran will empower Shi’ite
extremists over moderates and other peaceful Shi’ite
and Sunni political parties. The American presence in
Iraq was temporary, and it was the Americans who
toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime after the Iraqi
resistance—both Shi’ite and Kurdish—failed to do so.
If Iraqis remain silent over the Iranian regime’s
incursion into their lives, they will suffer the
oppression and cruelty which the Iranian people
themselves are suffering from. In the end, the Iraqis
will view the Iranians as an occupying force and they
will fight and expel them from Iraq just like their
Mongols, the British, and the Americans.
On the other hand, it may be in the interest of other
countries for Iran to be sucked into a quagmire in
Iraq and clash with Arab Sunni powers and with Arab
Shi’ite powers later. The Iranian regime has been
smart and cautious enough to avoid direct military
confrontations outside its own borders. Even when the
Afghani Taliban forces provoked the Iranian regime by
killing a number of its citizens, Iran withdrew from
the front line and did not attack them. During the
wars of the past 30 years, Iran has relied on regional
proxies—like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and
the Houthis in Yemen—to defend its agendas. It is the
members of these parties who die on behalf of the
Iranians. The entrance of Iran’s forces into Iraq and
of its militias into Syria shows another side of
Tehran and marks a new advanced phase of the struggle
in the region.
Al Rashed is
the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is
also the former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat,
and the leading Arabic weekly magazine, Al Majalla. He
is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers of
Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate
degree in mass communications. He has been a guest on
many TV current affairs programs. He is currently
based in Dubai.
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EsinIslam.Com
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