19 January 2016By Eyad Abu Shakra
The famous quote ''There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and
statistics'' attributed to Benjamin Disraeli and Mark Twain among others may
not sound true now as it used to in the past; statistics, as a science, has
advanced a lot since then. Thus, it may be beneficial to take seriously some
predictions made based on surveys conducted by respectable organizations.
Among such surveys is one presented as a report at the ‘Arab Strategy Forum'
in Dubai on December 15th 2015 by Dr Gideon Rose of Foreign Affairs magazine
under the title ‘State of the World 2016'. The ‘report' gave impressive
predictions of political, security and economic developments, regionally and
globally, for 2016 complete with ratios and probabilities.
Sure enough the world witnessed several changes in 2015, many of which may be
related to political choices made by leaderships we – as observers – have
grown to regard as influential and active players, rather than ‘influenced'
leaderships most of whose actions are largely ‘reactions'.
The truth, however, is that even major global leaderships do not necessarily
control everything around them. Thus, as powerful as it may be, a superpower
may find itself from time to time forced to coexist with realities it may not
like or would not freely choose.
Furthermore, western democracies are always subject and answerable to constant
and periodical popular accountability; which means that the concept of
‘leadership' here is totally different from that we see in dictatorships where
a ‘fuhrer', a ‘tzar' or a ‘vali e Faqih' is above the accountability of people
and institutions.
Hence, if we look at the two former ‘superpowers' of the ‘Cold War' – which
ended with the defeat and collapse of the former USSR, we realize that we are
dealing with a new political situation. It is marked by an American ‘retreat'-
unexpected from the victorious side in that ‘war', and a vengeful Russian
‘expansion' fuelled by the bitter taste of defeat and a strong desire to turn
the tables against those who have humiliated an empire that, although once
claimed to be ‘internationalist', has never forgotten its nationalist,
religious and imperialist heritage.
In fact, the predictions given by Dr Rose with regards to the Middle East, or
the world as a whole, reflected America's ‘retreat' and Russia's ‘expansion'
tactically supported by China and Iran. For example, they pointed to a 70%
likelihood of Hilary Clinton standing in the US presidential elections despite
the policy of ‘retreat' and withdrawal adopted by Barack Obama.
There was also a 65% likelihood that the tension between Washington and Moscow
''should continue to fester but not escalate dramatically'', and a 75%
likelihood that the Ukrainian crisis will remain ‘frozen'; all of which may
mean that Washington is willing to adjust to a new ‘bi-polar world order' with
Moscow.
The overall picture of America's ‘retreat' is further enhanced by the
following examples, and I quote:
1- China will continue in its current course of trying to impose dominance
without provoking an all-out conflict (likelihood 70%).
2- Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Ukraine, South and East China Seas are going to
continue to be the key conflict areas and geopolitical hotspots (likelihood
70%).
3- Iran will try to comply with the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
action – the recent nuclear deal – but without opening up (likelihood 75%).
As we notice from the above, the maximum Obama's Washington is doing at the
moment is ‘deterrence', although its preferred choice is ‘cooling' the
situation in most hotspots after losing initiative.
Almost in the same direction Dr Ghassan Salameh, the Lebanese academic and
former cabinet minister and UN envoy to Iraq, presented inspired, concise but
useful and pessimistic predictions of what 2016 might hold for the Arab world
and its neighbouring countries; which were met with some reservations by some
listeners. ''The next 12 months'' Salameh predicted ''will bring us prohibited
victories, frozen crises, unsavoury settlements and new conflicts''.
Indeed, Salameh who lived through the Lebanese Crisis and understood its
internal and external complexities is better qualified than many international
envoys, such as Staffan de Mistura, to comprehend the root cause of the
current situations in Syria and Iraq, as well as the inter-play between the
internal problems and regional, international and religious influences. The
same could be said about Dr Tareq Mitri, another Lebanese academic and former
cabinet minister who was a UN envoy to Libya.
I reckon Salameh is right in his predictions, at least during what is left of
Barack Obama's term in office given Russia's expanding military presence in
the Levant and the current tactical alliance between Moscow and Tehran in
Syria.
As for the ‘Arab Strategy Forum 2015', it was held in a region where more and
more questions are being heard than answered. The ‘one to one' chats and
discussions outside the main hall were more frank, expressive and courageous
than some insincere ‘diplomatic' speeches. Incidentally, a couple of speeches
by international officials and experts, past and present, were not only
lacking in objectivity, but far from the truth.
As I was listening to one speaker, I was shocked by the fact that some senior
western officials – like him – still refuse to understand that the audience
they are talking to has passed the stage of naïve gullibility and bewilderment
at the meaningless clichés thrown at it. This audience has now learnt to
doubt, and desires to hear the truth, as bad as it may be. Thus, ‘numbing' and
reassuring pronouncements with regards to Iran – both in the nuclear and
sectarian files – may be accepted at face value everywhere today except in the
GCC countries.
For a long time Washington has been trying ‘sell' them its nuclear deal with
Iran; but whether it is willing to admit it or not, President Obama's words of
reassurance as well as those uttered by his senior aides and European allies
have failed to achieve their target.
The reason, simply put, is that the GCC leaders see Iranian actions every day,
and ''actions speak louder than words''!
Eyad Abu Shakra is the managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat. He has been with
the newspaper since 1978.
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