05 February 2016By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
The Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was quoted as saying that ground
intervention in Syria could result in a third world war at the Munich
conference. Despite the seriousness of this statement, no one paid any
attention to him because what he said seemed unrealistic and a figment of the
imagination of the Iranian media, which has been repeated constantly by
Moscow.
The world war hypothesis is unrealistic and is just media exaggerations that
strategists do not take seriously. If such a confrontation was to take place,
it would have taken place because of Russia's occupation of the Crimea but the
west was satisfied with issuing statements of denouncement. A world war is not
part of the major power's dictionary and Syria is a battle on the side for the
west and somewhere for the Russians to show off their might.
Just as Syrian rebels succeeded in defeating Iranians in Syria during the last
two years, they will be able to defeat the Russians soon if the opposition
receive the arms it needs to fight the Russian air force. The Iranian
Revolutionary Guard has taken command of the war in Syria during the last two
years with the help of Russian logistical and military support, financial
support from Iraq and fighters from the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi militias.
Despite this, they were not able to advance far and the suburbs of Damascus
like Ghouta remain under rebel control. The Iranians even failed to lift the
sieges on the cities of Nubul and Zahra despite promises and the large
publicity that accompanied the battles. The siege was only lifted a few days
ago, days after Russia entered the war.
There will not be a world war and there will not be a direct military clash
between Russia and the west. Neither will there be confrontation between
regional forces like Turkey considering that both sides have tested the limits
of tension between them when the Turks brought down the Russian Sukhoi
aircraft. What we can expect, however, is that the battles will continue with
greater support for the opposition and increased Russian involvement as a
result of Russian military interference and the attempt to impose the Iranian
solution on the Syrian people.
Here we see the Russians angry at support for the opposition and Saudi Arabian
statements about ground intervention against ISIS in Syria because the aim of
their massive military campaign is to impose a new status quo like seizing
Aleppo and then imposing a political solution in Geneva. If they fail to do
this in the near future, the Russians would have ruined Syria entirely without
any political gain which is the main goal of war.
The regional and international stance is important in reaching a settlement in
Syria, not just that of Russia and Iran. It is likely that the west will not
directly intervene in the war there, however countries like Turkey and GCC
countries may be forced to intervene in some way or increase their support to
the Syrian opposition at which point the west will have no choice but to
support it in light of the crisis' expansion by the millions of refugees, the
threat of terrorism and the increase in the frequency of violence.
The Russians are angry at the prospect of any intervention under any title and
this includes supporting the opposition that suffered major setbacks as a
result of Russian intervention. With the increase in threatening language, the
Russians are able to obtain a political half victory if they accepted the
concept of a joint rule solution- the opposition with the Syrian regime minus
Assad. The Syrian opposition that refused this proposal is no longer in a
military position to refuse everything. Turkey and the Gulf countries have
already expressed their acceptance of this political solution. However, the
opposition's allies will have to support it on the ground in order to push
this solution forward because military action is the most important tool in
the negotiations. This was expressed by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov when he told the ''Moskovsky'' newspaper a few days ago that betting on a
military solution has become a reality.
Turkey is the main player on the other side and there is doubt that its
reluctance to intervene has placed it in multiple crises. The Russians and the
Iranians are now active in building a long hostile Kurdish Front along the
Turkish border to separate Syria from Turkey. This means marginalising the
role of Turkey and its influence in Syria on one side, and threatening the
security of Turkey continuously on the other. I do not think that the Turks
will allow this dangerous development and they have no choice but to increase
support of the opposition and activate the role of the refugees to form an
alternative liberation army. Perhaps things would not have reached this point
of complexity if the Russians and Iranians were convinced of the seriousness
of the threats against them and find that accepting the proposed political
solution is in their interests.
Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the
former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers
of Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate degree in mass
communications. He has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs. He
is currently based in Dubai.
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