10 February 2016By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir's statements on supporting Syrian rebels
by supplying them with surface-to-air missiles have raised hopes for
rebalancing the power, which was lately put in the hands of the Syrian regime
and Iranian and Russian forces.
The hopes are in ending the ban on the Free Army, considered a moderate
opposition, in order to protect its areas and combat murdering and displacing
a large number of civilians within a clear scheme that aims at modifying the
demographic map of Syria.
These hopes also allow the opposition to cancel the possibility of
implementing projects that depend on political solutions in the negotiations,
thus leaving Bashar al-Assad and his regime in the power regardless of the
crimes he has been committing.
In addition, and because no Turkish, Arab or international forces will
intervene to protect the Syrians while facing Assad's regime, Iran, and the
Russian forces who are militarily superior to the opposition. The remaining
possible solution is to boost the capabilities of the opposition fighters by
providing them with high-quality weapons, which they have been lacking due to
several reasons including fear from them falling into the hands of ISIS
militants.
Regardless of whether surface-to-air missiles are provided, we must not
underestimate the extent of regional support for the opposition. This support
is rarely announced, but has played – and continues to play – an important
role in helping rebels succeed in confronting Assad's forces and terrorist
organizations.
Despite the involvement of Russian military alongside Assad's forces from
October, independent reports have confirmed the opposition's success in
destroying many regime armored vehicles compared to previous years because
they possessed more advanced weapons.
Jubeir's suggestion can be applied by providing the Syrian moderate opposition
forces with Chinese missiles, if American ones were not available, to target
the regime's air force and oblige the Russians to conduct fewer air raids and
fly at higher altitudes to avoid being struck; thus expediting a moderate
political solution accepted by most parties.
One of the excuses that were given to prevent providing the opposition with
surface-to-air missiles was fear of repeating the experience of US Stinger
missiles that were smuggled out from Afghanistan after the confrontations with
the Soviet Union. These missiles were then used to threaten countries such as
the United States and Saudi Arabia, and many of them were seized with al-Qaeda
militants.
Suspicions that the Syrian opposition, including the moderate opposition,
might be infiltrated by the Syrian regime or terrorist groups, or might face
disobedience among its militants regarding the targets of these missiles are
justified.
There have been frequent discussions about this matter from three years. The
moderate opposition's military leaders suggested that such advanced weapons be
controlled by electronic chips that limit their use to certain purposes, yet
they were told that this was neither guaranteed nor sufficient.
Some of the opposition's leaders suggested that the missiles be supervised by
the opposition's elite and military leaders from countries present with them
on the ground for intelligence purposes. This option was also rejected and
considered unconvincing.
Nevertheless, the war expanded and became more dangerous for the Syrians and
their neighboring countries, and its threat reached Europe. Russia has granted
regime forces air cover to march toward the Turkish borders while the
Iranians, also thanks to Russian air support, have progressed in the south,
threatening Jordan's security.
At this point, political talks are not enough to stop these threats, and the
balance of power must be shifted in favor of the moderate opposition at a time
when powers meet in Geneva to approve a political plan that decides Syria's
future according to the current situation on the ground.
Between getting directly involved in the war and enhancing the opposition's
military and intelligence capabilities, the latter option seems less dangerous
and more urgent.
Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the
former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers
of Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate degree in mass
communications. He has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs. He
is currently based in Dubai.
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