Dividing Syria is a Difficult Mission
31 July 2016By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
Since the beginning of the Syrian uprising in 2011 against Bashar Al Assad's
regime, some have predicted the country would be divided along ethnic and
sectarian lines. The main catalyst for the division is fears for the safety of
minorities. As time went by, the uprising has turned into internal wars and
then into military interventions by foreign powers such an Iran, Russia, Iraq
and Hezbollah. Foreign and local jihadist organisations such as ISIS, Al-Nusra
Front and Ahrar Al-Sham have taken up residence in Syria. Twelve million
Syrians have been displaced from their towns, villages and regions because of
the disasters of war. A third of them sought refuge abroad, some relocated to
areas that suit them and the rest fled the killings and destruction within the
country.
Talk about dividing Syria has recommenced because US officials finally said
that it is unlikely that the country will remain united and that the division
of the country is more likely. Some have considered this a prelude to the
division and the beginning of a new Sykes-Picot on the grounds that the old
agreement between the French and the British has expired after the passing of
a hundred years. This time, it is the Russians and the Americans who have
agreed to a new division of the region.
Is there really an agreement on the division of Syria between major powers?
Frankly, this is unlikely for many reasons, the most notable of which is that
they lack the power on the ground to impose any borders in the Middle East,
whether old or new. The Russians and the Iranians have been trying to carry
out an easier task for a while now; consolidating Assad's rule in areas under
his control. However, they have yet to succeed, let alone create new and
conflicting entities that compete for resources and borders.
A similar example of chaos and war can be seen in Syria's neighbour Iraq.
Since 1990, Iraqi Kurds have been living in a semi- autonomous region
following the war to liberate Kuwait. 26 years have passed and the situation
of the Iraqi Kurds has not changed. The establishment of a Kurdish republic in
northern Iraq was not objected to by Saddam, Turkey or Iran (the three parties
that usually oppose any independent Kurdish entity). Rather, it was the
international community, the term usually used to describe the permanent
members of the United Nations Security Council, that refused to grant the
Kurds independence. The reason for this is that no one wants to change the map
of the region as this may cause disintegration which would lead to
uncontrollable chaos.
The international community may change its mind with the continuation of chaos
and blood in Syria, and may have become convinced that the division is a less
evil solution than a troubled state. Implementing this might have been
possible in the first two years of the Syrian revolution. However, migration
has changed demographics, and therefore I do not see how Syria will be divided
without the presence of large homogeneous communities. The city of Manbij is a
model; many of its inhabitants fled to the countryside and beyond after ISIS
occupied it. When extremist Syrian militia forces entered the city to expel
ISIS with international support, they also expelled much of the population on
the grounds of ethnicity and about 200,000 people fled the area.
We cannot ignore the regional factor and fears of countries like Turkey, Iran
and Iraq. Syrian ethnic and sectarian components have extensions in these
countries, and any recognition of entities based on ethnic considerations
would threaten the unity of neighbouring countries. Turkey strongly opposes
the attempt to establish Kurdish areas along its border. Even Iran, which does
not share a border with Syria, fears that such attempts may stir separatist
feelings among its own Kurdish population that numbers around 8 million. The
situation is not much better for Syria's Alawites who were made to take
responsibility for the regime because the Assad family are members of the
Alawite sect. Many of their youth have left the country to escape forced
military service and thousands of families have taken refuge elsewhere for
fear of reprisals.
The prerequisite for dividing any country is that residents must be able to
return to their areas. This happened in Yugoslavia which was divided into four
republics under international auspices after the civil war. As for the
situation in Syria, it is like a broken vessel that has shattered into small
pieces. A solution in Syria that involves maintaining the structure of the
state with a new political system under international auspices will be an
especially difficult task in light of the Iranian and Russian occupation of
Syria on Assad's behalf.
Al Rashed is the general manager of Al -Arabiya television. He is also the
former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, and the leading Arabic weekly
magazine, Al Majalla. He is also a senior Columnist in the daily newspapers of
Al Madina and Al Bilad. He is a US post-graduate degree in mass
communications. He has been a guest on many TV current affairs programs. He is
currently based in Dubai.
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