Iran has been the target of anti-Islamic and Arab nations for quite some time,
though their objectives vary considerably in content, but the nuclear deal
with the Western powers has made its position relatively tension free as
Israeli agenda of destabilizing the Islamic nation has ended in futility.
Let us review the issue in prospective.
Issue: Targeting Iran's
economy and security
Today, imperialism threatens Islamic world, especially the oil rich West Asia,
causing economic and security problems for each Muslim country in the region,
including Saudi Arabia – a major Muslim ally of US in capitalism and
anti-Islamic wars. Arab world has been made an enemy of Iran – a Shiite
nation.
Sunni-Shiite divide, which is becoming wide and dangerous, is being exploited
by anti-Islamic nations led by USA and Israel. Since Iraq has been
destabilized by the NATO and allies, now Saudi kingdom seeks Iranian fall as
well while Israel gladly supports the Arab sick mind.
In July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers – the US, UK,
France, China and Russia plus Germany signed the historic nuclear deal seeking
to bring peace to West Asia. The reason for the deal was to deny Iran any
chance for making atomic bombs to make Israel, the regional nuke power,
irrelevant.
Iranian economy and security has been the target of USA and its allies for a
long time. Since Iran's nuclear program became public in 2002, the UN, EU and
several individual countries have imposed sanctions in an attempt to prevent
it from developing military nuclear capability. Iran insists its nuclear
activities are exclusively peaceful, but the world's nuclear watchdog has been
unable to verify this.
Sanctions and relief are a routine strategy of USA towards Iran. Iran and
world powers agreed an interim deal in 2013 which saw it gain around $7bn in
sanctions relief in return for curbing uranium enrichment and giving UN
inspectors better access to its facilities. World powers also committed to
facilitate Iran's access to $4.2bn in restricted funds. Several rounds of
sanctions in recent years have targeted Iran's key energy and financial
sectors, crippling its economy.
The US sanctions prohibit almost all trade with Iran, making some exceptions
only for activity ''intended to benefit the Iranian people'', including the
export of medical and agricultural equipment, humanitarian assistance and
trade in ''informational'' materials such as films. A ban on the supply of
heavy weaponry and nuclear-related technology to Iran; A block on arms
exports; an asset freeze on key individuals and companies, etc., Japan and
South Korea have also imposed sanctions similar to those of the EU.
As well as more recent sanctions aimed at Iran's financial, oil and
petrochemical sectors, the US has imposed successive rounds of sanctions since
the 1979 Tehran hostage crisis, citing what it says is Iran's support for
international terrorism, human rights violations and refusal to co-operate
with the IAEA.
As a result of the EU embargo and the US sanctions targeting other major
importers, Iran's oil exports had fallen to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) by
May 2013, compared with an average 2.2 million bpd in 2011. In January 2013,
Iran's oil minister acknowledged for the first time that the fall in exports
was costing the country between $4bn and $8bn (£2.5bn-£5bn) each month. Iran
is believed to have suffered a loss of about $26bn (£16bn) in oil revenue in
2012 from a total of $95bn (£59m) in 2011.
The loss of oil revenue, which accounted for a half of government expenditure,
and isolation from the international banking system, had caused Iran's
currency, the rial, to lose two-thirds of its value against the US dollar and
caused inflation to rise to more than 40%, with prices of basic foodstuffs and
fuel soaring. Iran wanted the UN sanctions suspended soon after any agreement
is reached but sanctions stayed. .
Nuclear facility
Today, officially Israel alone has the nuclear facility and illegally obtained
nukes in West Asia and obviously USA-Israel duo does not want any other nation
in the region to go nuclear, threatening the military superiority of Israel.
Iran's legal effort to become a nuclear power to protect Muslim nations of the
region is opposed by both USA and Israel. The White House says the nuclear
deal with Iran aimed at preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
USA has not asked Israel to disarm itself so that the region is nuclear free.
Israel does not say it wants peace in the region and hence doesn't want to go
denuclearized. Iran says it has the right to nuclear energy – and stresses
that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only.
Iran has been building a heavy-water nuclear facility near the town of Arak.
Spent fuel from a heavy-water reactor contains plutonium suitable for a
nuclear bomb. World powers had originally wanted Arak dismantled because of
the proliferation risk. Under an interim nuclear deal agreed in November 2013,
Iran agreed not to commission or fuel the reactor. Iran has agreed to redesign
the reactor so it cannot produce any weapons-grade plutonium. All spent fuel
will be sent out of the country as long as the modified reactor exists.
There are two uranium enrichment facilities in Iran – Natanz and Fordo – where
uranium hexafluoride gas is fed into centrifuges to separate out the most
fissile isotope U-235. Low-enriched uranium, which has a 3%-4% concentration
of U-235, can be used to produce fuel for nuclear power plants. But it can
also be enriched to the 90% needed to produce nuclear weapons. In July 2015,
Iran had almost 20,000 centrifuges. However, under this statement of intent
Iran will reduce its installed enrichment centrifuges to 6,000, only 5,000 of
which will be spinning.
Iran's uranium stockpile will also be reduced by 98% to 300kg (660lbs) for 15
years. It must also keep its level of enrichment at 3.67%. By January 2016,
Iran had drastically reduced the number of centrifuges installed at Natanz and
Fordo, and shipped tonnes of low-enriched uranium to Russia. In addition,
research and development will take place only at Natanz and be limited for
eight years. No enrichment will be permitted at Fordo for 15 years
As per the deal, Iran has agreed not to engage in activities, including
research and development, which could contribute to the development of a
nuclear bomb. In December 2015, the IAEA's board of governors voted to end its
decade-long investigation into the possible military dimensions of Iran's
nuclear program.
Deal
Now the Western powers and allies plus UN as international community are
implementing the landmark nuclear deal in March last year between Iran and the
P5+1 group of world powers – the USA, UK, France, China and Russia plus
Germany.
Crippling economic sanctions on Iran have been lifted now that the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has certified that it has restricted
its sensitive nuclear activities.
The nuclear deal signed by Iran and
western powers is not a peace treaty but just a mechanism to avoid unnecessary
war envisaged by Neocons to appease Israel and provoke Arab world. The deal
somehow ended a possible civilizational clash and clipped Israeli wings in
West Asia, targeting Iran.
The US government has said that the world powers that negotiated the accord —
the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany — made no secret
arrangements. But the draft report said the joint commission also agreed to
allow Iran to keep operating 19 radiation containment chambers larger than the
accord set. These so-called ''hot cells'' are used for handling radioactive
material but can be ''misused for secret, mostly small-scale plutonium
separation efforts,'' said the report. Plutonium is another nuclear weapons
fuel.
The deal allowed Iran to meet a 130-tonne limit on heavy water produced at its
Arak facility by selling its excess stock on the open market. But with no
buyer available, the joint commission helped Tehran meet the sanctions relief
deadline by allowing it to send 50 tonnes of the material — which can be used
in nuclear weapons production — to Oman, where it was stored under Iranian
control
The 159-page accord is a study in unmet high expectations for change, as
hard-liners in both Iran and the US Congress fight to undermine the deal to
ensure as little political benefit as possible for the chief architect of the
accord – Rouhani. It was Iran's shriveling economy – Iranians voting their
pocketbooks, as well as promises of greater social freedoms – that helped
Rouhani win election in June 2013. He vowed to engineer a nuclear deal, and
resurrect an economy hurt by mismanagement and sanctions.
Almost every powerful group had a say in
the accord, which reflected a national, strategic decision to turn the page on
the nuclear crisis even as concern remains over the world powers' commitment.
The establishment appeared as determined to implement the deal as it was to
seeing the negotiations through – and largely for the same reason: to
resuscitate the economy by removing sanctions, either as envisioned in the
accord or by showing that Iran is not to blame for failure.
With the nuclear accord between Tehran and world powers in force, a chief
question is what it means for Iran. The clash between competing visions of the
country's future has heightened since the deal which many believe it could
rebalance domestic politics. It not only has boosted the profile of those who
promoted it, but, more fundamentally, it has opened space for new debates in a
domestic sphere that was dominated by the nuclear issue for more than a
decade.
However, according to a think tank report, the USA and its negotiating
partners agreed ''in secret'' to allow Iran to evade some restrictions in last
year's landmark nuclear agreement in order to meet the deadline for it to
start getting relief from economic sanctions. Among the exemptions outlined in
the think tank's report were two that allowed Iran to exceed the deal's limits
on how much low-enriched uranium (LEU) it can keep in its nuclear facilities,
the report said. LEU can be purified into highly enriched, weapons-grade
uranium.
Israel and Saudi Arabia found this attitude of USA unacceptable. One senior
''knowledgeable'' official, however, was cited by the report as saying that if
the joint commission had not acted to create these exemptions, some of Iran's
nuclear facilities would not have been in compliance with the deal by Jan. 16,
the deadline for the beginning of the lifting of sanctions. The US government
has said that the world powers that negotiated the accord made no secret
arrangements.
Real concessions?
The United States and its negotiating partners apparently agreed ''in secret''
to allow Iran to evade some restrictions in last year's landmark nuclear
agreement in order to meet the deadline for it to start getting relief from
economic sanctions, according to a recent think tank report.
The exemptions were approved by the joint commission the deal created to
oversee implementation of the accord. The commission is comprised of the
United States and its negotiating partners — called the P5+1 — and Iran.
The report, which was released by the Washington-based Institute for Science
and International Security, is based on information provided by several
officials of governments involved in the negotiations. The group's president
David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and co-author of the report,
said the exemptions or loopholes are happening in secret, and it appears that
they favor Iran.
The report ignited a chorus of Republican criticism, including from the
campaign of presidential nominee Donald Trump. His campaign sought to link the
findings to Trump's Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, who was secretary of
state when secret talks were held with Iran but had left office before formal
negotiations began. ''The deeply flawed nuclear deal Hillary Clinton secretly
spearheaded with Iran looks worse and worse by the day,'' said a statement
issued by retired Army General Michael Flynn, a top Trump adviser. ''It's now
clear President Obama gave away the store to secure a weak agreement that is
full of loopholes.''
The Clinton campaign did not immediately comment on the report. The White
House said it took ''significant exception'' to some of the report's findings,
saying that the easing of sanctions was always dependent upon Iran's adherence
to the agreement. ''The implementation date was driven by the ability of the
International Atomic Energy Agency to verify that Iran had completed the steps
that they promised to take,'' White House spokesman Josh Earnest told
reporters at a briefing. ''That is what precipitated implementation day. Since
then Iran has been in compliance with the agreement,'' Earnest said.
Among the exemptions outlined in the think tank's report were two that allowed
Iran to exceed the deal's limits on how much low-enriched uranium (LEU) it can
keep in its nuclear facilities, the report said. LEU can be purified into
highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium.
One senior ''knowledgeable'' official was cited by the report as saying that
if the joint commission had not acted to create these exemptions, some of
Iran's nuclear facilities would not have been in compliance with the deal by
Jan. 16, the deadline for the beginning of the lifting of sanctions.
Outcomes
The nuclear talks and agreement between Iran and Western powers have averted a
possible deadly war situation that was being promoted by most anti-Islamic
nations, particularly Israel that still seeks to attack all nuclear sites of
Islamic power in West Asia. Also, the deal enabled to set the tone for a
peaceful situation in a region which is torn with terror wars launched by the
Pentagon led NATO terror organization supported by all colonialist powers led
by Israel. While Israel sought to destabilize Iran, the latter warned Jewish
terror nation of dreadful consequences for the Zionist regime, Israel and
Zionism.
At the outset, the nuclear deal has not fundamentally changed Iran's ties with
the USA. American companies are still generally prohibited from trading with
Iran because of other sanctions for human rights violations, support of
terrorism, and ballistic missile programs.
The Obama government signed agreements with Iran including sale of Boeing to
Tehran. Boeing was required to receive permission from the US Treasury before
even negotiating with Iran Air. Republican lawmakers quickly criticized the
Boeing sale agreement with Iran, arguing it could hurt US national security
interests. On July 7, the Republican-led House of Representatives passed a
spending bill intended to block to the Boeing deal.
Having achieved the deal, joy erupted on the streets of Tehran a year ago,
when Iran signed a landmark nuclear deal with six world powers hailed as a
victory of diplomacy over war. As jubilant Iranians waved flags and heralded
an easing of Iran's isolation, President Hassan Rouhani promised that a page
has turned in the history of Iran. The deal was marketed by both sides as a
''win-win'': Iran would dismantle the most controversial aspects of its
nuclear program – minimizing the chance of acquiring a nuclear weapon for at
least a decade – in exchange for the lifting of sanctions that crippled its
economy.
Expectations had been high in Iran, fanned by supporters of the deal, that its
benefits would be palpable and immediate. Yet Iran has received back only a
fraction of the $150 billion of its own funds that it expected, and financing
new deals is a major issue because of the Western banks' concerns. Iranians'
hopes for the benefits, however, have not yet dissipated.
However, things have not improved, there is no real tangible impact on
people's lives, but there is still a glimmer of hope for better things to
come. One year later, the post deal situation does not suggest any great
achievement. The deal has not ushered in a new significant era. Steady
warnings from Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, about
''infiltration'' and ''soft war'' from the USA and the West reveals the
deceptive nature of the deal with USA. USA and European banks also are proving
reluctant to engage with Iran, fearful that non-nuclear US sanctions might
bite, thereby depriving Iran of the full hoped-for benefits of the deal.
Iran has dramatically reduced the scale of its nuclear infrastructure –
reconfiguring a heavy water nuclear reactor and a deeply buried uranium
enrichment facility, for example – while keeping a limited capacity to produce
fuel for nuclear energy. And non-nuclear sanctions have been lifted, partially
ushering Iran back into the global economy.
Iran's economy has slowly but measurably rebounded in the year since Tehran
signed a historic nuclear deal with the world's six major powers. Iran is
still progressing as the region's first power. Still, sanctions relief has
already brought ''significant benefit'' to Iran, notes Vaez, such as oil
production returning to pre-sanctions levels; a boost of trade with the EU by
22 percent; and $3.5 billion of a foreign direct investment in Iran in the
first quarter of 2016 – breaking a decade-long record. Washington's behavior
has also been closely watched in Tehran.
Foreign trade
The nuclear deal, by lifting many of the sanctions, is reopening the doors to
those foreign companies. Iran has hosted dozens of foreign delegations, many
of whom had visited Iran even before the deal was signed. More than 140
economic delegations from 48 countries traveled to Iran between March and
December 2015, according to Mir-Abutorab Badri, an official with the Trade
Promotion Organization of Iran. Around half of them were from Europe and North
America.
Sanctions relief also allowed Iran to export millions more barrels of oil
monthly. In February, Iran exported its first shipment of oil to Europe since
the deal was implemented. Oil exports to China, India, Japan, and South Korea
increased 50% in March 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. By May 2016,
oil exports had climbed to 2.3 million barrels per day, double the amount
exported before sanctions relief.
Iran has made gains in the recovery of the oil market. Iran's crude exports
have soared after the lifting of UN sanctions. Exports have doubled and old
customers in Asia and Europe are returning. The country's market share of
global crude exports has returned to pre-sanctions levels. However, lower oil
prices have not done much to increase Iran's capital to a booming level.
Neither could oil earnings alone do this.
The relatively moderate government of President Hassan Rouhani is trying to
nudge aside the conservative Revolutionary Guards in some areas to make way
for what it hopes will be a ''flood'' of Western money from energy sales.
While the deal lifted EU and UN sanctions on Iran's banking and energy sector,
most of the unilateral US sanctions relating to non-nuclear issues remain.
In January, Rouhani praised the nuclear deal for opening ''new windows for
engagement with the world.'' Foreign governments and firms quickly began
finalizing agreements once sanctions were lifted. Chinese President Xi Jinping
visited Iran on January 22, 2016 and signed 17 agreements. Two days later,
Rouhani embarked on his first trip to Europe, where he inked deals worth $43
billion with French and Italian companies. In January, Iran also finalized a
deal with European aircraft manufacturer Airbus to deliver more than 100
commercial jets to Iran. Even some US companies have explored trade deals with
Iran. In June, U.S. aircraft manufacturer Boeing signed a preliminary $17.6
billion deal to sell Iran Air 80 aircraft between 2017 and 2025. General
Electric has also reportedly scoped out opportunities in Iran's oil and gas
industry.
Iran turned to its North to broker one of the most surprising barter deals —
the ''goods-for-gas'' deal between Iran and Turkmenistan, comprising a $-30
billion deal over ten years. The purpose was to supply energy to Iran's
north-eastern provinces that are far from its domestic gas fields. This saves
Iran from diverting capital into major new pipeline projects
The nuclear deal has helped raise GDP, boost oil production, and expand trade.
But as Rouhani prepares for a reelection bid in 2017, many Iranians expected
to see more from the nuclear deal than they experienced in its first year.
Foreign companies are also still restricted from trading with more than 200
Iranian entities sanctioned by the United States for non-nuclear reasons.
Despite enthusiasm for Iran's economic potential, foreign companies still face
serious risks that have not been alleviated by the nuclear deal. Corruption,
lack of transparency, poor transportation infrastructure, and other issues
with Iran's business environment etc have deterred investors. Iran ranks 118th
out of 189 countries in the World Bank's 2016 ease of doing business index,
and 136th out of 175 countries in Transparency International's corruption
perceptions index.
One year after the deal, lingering economic questions and pressure from
hardliners still created challenges for Rouhani. Unemployment rose from 10.6%
in March 2015 to 11% in March 2016. Some Iranian businessmen complained that
foreign investment was primarily channeled to large state-run enterprises
rather than small businesses in the private sector. According to the World
Bank, Iran still needed to improve its business environment, reduce government
influence in the economy, and reform its financial sector in order to see
tangible benefits in job creation.
Religious leadership
Tensions within the Islamic Republic stem in no small part from its blend of
popular sovereignty and religious authority. Theocratic forces seek to
maintain the dominance of the supreme leader and other tutelary bodies, while
republican forces advocate more clout for popularly-elected institutions. Each
camp is further split between pragmatists who seek incremental political
evolution and radicals who either resist any change or promote revolutionary
transformation. The supreme leader – powerful but not omnipotent – maintains
stability by accommodating both theocratic and republican trends.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had endorsed bilateral negotiations with the USA
before Rouhani ran for office. He then supported the new president's
diplomatic push and kept his opponents at bay. But given the leader's aversion
to risk, his support was qualified and did not obviate Rouhani's need for a
coalition with other power centres.
Supreme Leader announced that the theme of the upcoming year would be ''The
Resistance Economy.'' Focusing on domestic production, Khamenei argued, will
be Iran's best defense against sanctions. ''With the Resistance Economy, it is
possible to fight unemployment and recession and to curb inflation; it is
possible to stand up to the enemies' threats,'' he said. Rouhani has insisted
that his policies are not at odds with Khamenei's vision for the economy—and
public opinion polls support him. Citing remaining financial restrictions,
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused the USA of not fulfilling its
pledges under the nuclear deal. ''In Western countries and places which are
under US influence, our banking transactions and the repatriation of our funds
from their banks face problems … because banks fear the Americans,'' he said
in March.
Hardliners allege that Rouhani's policies will make the Islamic Republic too
economically dependent and open Iran to Western cultural influence. On Jan.
30, Iranian students protested outside the Iranian Oil Ministry against the
new Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC), chanting that the contracts would lead to
the ''plundering of national wealth.''
Economy boost and challenges
After sanctions were lifted, the Islamic Republic aggressively ramped up oil
and gas output. Oil production climbed from 2.9 million barrels per day in
January to 3.8 million barrels per day in late May. Oil Minister Bijan
Zanganeh predicted that output could top 4 million barrels per day by March
2017.
Sanctions relief has led to higher oil production, restored access to billions
of dollars of assets, and easier trade and financial transactions. The two
most tangible changes have been the increase in oil exports–which have nearly
doubled since sanctions were lifted on Jan. 16–and the dozens of foreign trade
and investment deals Iran has negotiated. In June, Iran even reached a
tentative $17.6 billion deal with Boeing, the world's largest aircraft
manufacturer, to purchase passenger planes. But one year after the deal, some
international firms are still hesitant to do business in the Middle East's
second largest economy.
Foreign direct investment could total $8 billion by March 2017, according to
Seyed Hossein Salimi of the Iranian National Committee of the International
Chamber of Commerce. In 2015, foreign direct investment only reached around $2
billion.
Overall, Iran's
economic outlook has improved since the deal. The International Monetary Fund
(IMF) predicts between 4% and 5.5% growth in 2016 – up from the 1.3% growth it
had predicted for 2016 before the deal was signed. Iran has moved up from
number 12 position among 14 Mid-East countries in Foreign Direct investment (FDI)
and it is just behind Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, Iranian banks and
foreign banks that are to play an anchor role in processing this FDI are not
allowed to deal in US dollars — the global reserve currency
Natural gas production has also
increased by 23 billion cubic meters in the past year, after Iran completed
development projects in the South Pars field, the largest gas field in the
world. European companies estimated that Iran – which holds the world's second
largest natural gas reserves, after Russia – could potentially supply Europe
with up to 35 billion cubic meters of gas per year by 2030.
Low oil prices, however, have limited Iran's revenue from these production
increases. In January, oil prices fell below $30 a barrel for the first time
in 12 years. Prices have rebounded slightly since then, reaching $46 a barrel
in June 2016.
However, low prices have also pushed Iran to diversify its economy. Only
around 25%of the state budget relies on oil revenues, compared to 60% in past
years. In the last Iranian year, which ended on March 19, Iran had a non-oil
trade surplus for the first time since the 1979 revolution.
Iran's increasing oil output–despite low
prices–has put it at odds with other oil producers. In February, Russia and
OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and
Venezuela called for a production freeze to stabilize prices. Iran would only
entertain the idea of a freeze after production reaches 4 million barrels per
day, which was about its pre-sanctions output.
Even if prices increase, Iran may have trouble increasing its oil production
beyond that target without significant foreign investment. The Islamic
Republic plans to fund and implement oil and gas projects worth a lofty $185
billion by 2020 to boost its crude oil output and refining capabilities.
The Islamic Republic hopes to entice foreign oil companies by offering more
favorable contract terms. On June 27, Zanganeh announced that Iran was
finalizing the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC). Unlike the ''buy-back''
contracts unpopular with foreign firms, the IPC allows companies to
participate in all the stages of an oil or gas field's lifecycle.
Domestically, the deal has yet to yield significant benefits for the average
Iranian. Corruption, a lack of transparency, and other issues make Iran's
business environment challenging for investors. Foreign companies also risk
incurring penalties from remaining US sanctions on Iran for terrorism and
human rights violations. Unemployment increased slightly in 2016. Only 46% of
Iranians believe the country's economic situation is good as of March 2016,
compared to 54% in May 2015. Hardliners question President Hassan Rouhani's
focus on foreign investment over domestic production.
Iran still has to overcome more US sanctions to resume trade with European
nations. European and Asian conglomerates that would otherwise want to invest
in the Iranian market do not know how to bypass many US sanctions which
continue to extend to organizations and individuals having ties with the
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRG) which is aspiring to play a ''bigger
role'' in the country's economy, by some estimates, directly or indirectly
control over 40% of Iran's economy.
Since the 1979 Revolution, the rulers of
the Islamic Republic of Iran have sought to lead Islamic world along with
Saudi Arabia, dominate the West Asia region where Saudi Arabia is considered
to be the leader. Since the Iran deal was signed by USA, peace has remained
remarkably elusive as Iran considers the nuclear deal with western powers is
an endorsement against Sunni nations while Saudi Arabia looks at it as
promotion of Shiite nations by its ally USA. Not only Riyadh rejected Iran as
an ally to pursue Islamic goals worldwide but treats as its enemy. So much so,
today Saudi leadership considers Iran an enemy worse than Israel.
US officials, however, have insisted that Washington has complied with the
nuclear deal. The Obama administration has reportedly sought to encourage
Iran's reintegration into global markets, hoping to solidify the deal and
prevent it from unraveling under future administrations. On May 10, Secretary
of State John Kerry told European businesses that they ''should not use the
USA as an excuse'' for not doing business in Iran.
In the coming year, Rouhani may face even more pressure to prove that the deal
has yielded the economic benefits that many Iranians anticipated. The IMF
predicts that average inflation will drop from 15.1% in the 2015-2016 Iranian
fiscal year to 11.5% in the 2016-2017 fiscal year.
Rouhani has courted foreign trade and investment, but Iran's political
factions have debated whether Iran should pursue greater foreign engagement at
all. Others in the regime are more skeptical. Two thirds of Iranians surveyed
in March supported greater economic engagement with the West, and reformists
fared well in the spring 2016 parliamentary elections.
Saudi led GCC joins Israel
against Iran
Israel and its cruel sponsors in the West believe occupational atrocities make
history interesting. USA and Israel, as well as other colonialist nations are
keen to retain their occupational posts held abroad. NATO terror wars in
Afghanistan and Arab world have helped Israel prolong the occupational crimes
in Palestine thus far, making its expansionist drives smooth as USA continues
to back all crimes against humanity
Interestingly, Arab leaders now think anomalies make history interesting and
thus they try to find a common non-vegetarian language. Saudi Arabs seems to
be leading the anti-Islamic nations against Islamic faith. Interestingly, they
also think they are doing the right thing. Maybe they hope all anti-Islamic
nations become Islamic in due course. Millions of Muslims have been
slaughtered by these anti-Islamic forces globally in their war on Islam and
they relish the taste of Islamic blood.
Saudi for some mysterious reasons considers Iran its arch foe and opposes it
and frames policies keeping in view Iran's sidelining as its objective. Anti-Iranism
has become too strong that Saudi government indeed treats Iran worse enemy
than Israel and tries for a common platform to disgrace Iran. So much so
anti-Islamic Israel emerges as Islamic Saudi's strategic partner against
Islamic Iran.
Funny Islamic leaders!
A simmer Sunni-Shiite cold war is on for quite some time and western world and
Israel seeks to take full advantage of the clash of their common enemies in
island. Arab world says that today Iran is posing a serious challenge to Saudi
led Arab nations, as its proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the
Sadrist militias in Iraq have taken the fight beyond the capacity of Iranian
government forces. In Yemen and Bahrain, groups funded from Tehran have been
armed, funded and trained to challenge the Arab governments.
True, unlike Israel or even Saudi Arabia, Iran does not seek wars and, knowing
the intricacies of regional crises, being accelerated by the US intervention,
always goes for diplomatic resolution of crises and succeeded n averting all
war situations. Iran has not changed its position on Palestine nation as it
continues to support the Palestinians and their struggle for sovereignty.
Iran will have a presidential poll in
June 2017. With elections due next year, the pressure on Rouhani's government
is likely to increase if the next US president follows in the footsteps of his
predecessor to continue to play the ''sanctions game.'' Incumbent President
Hassan Rouhani's competitors are concerned that he and his allies will parlay
their foreign policy achievements into electoral victories.
Iranian success in the nuclear deal depends on many factors. Nothing unusual
in the flowery language coming from Western capitals about a new era of
relations with Iran has some reality and justification because Iran and USA
have begun viewing each other not as prime enemies as they had done for years
now especially after the fall of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, even during
prolonged talks, notwithstanding all negative rhetoric emanating from Israel
and elsewhere against the deal and new alignments.
The deal obviously weakened Israeli position and hold over US strategic lots.
Having been isolated internationally already on genocides in Gaza and its
regular threats of terror attacks on Iran, Israel will not be able to keep
ignoring such a broad international engagement.
Now Zionists in Israel and USA understand that it must cope with a process of
Palestine statehood that has started rolling and won't be easily stopped. It
must now position itself differently after the repeatedly failed US mediation
and ahead of the practical part of the French initiative, as the French
distributed in June the tasks to different working groups.
The UN Quartet report on the obstacles
ahead of a two-state solution and the main themes to be tackled should be
published without further delay and used as a main tool of work for the French
initiative.
Observation
The debate on whether or not Iran gained from the nuclear deal with western
powers is inconclusive but one is clear: Iran hasn't lost the spot by signing
the deal with US led powers. The deal appeared to be the only option for the
time being as Israel is pushing for a terror attack on Iran and sought the US
approval. The president, Many Iranian strategists believe, has been duped into
accepting the deal and his failure to boost economy even after a year is an
clear proof of the ''West's treachery''.
Iran's expectation of a big boom in
economy through ''economic recovery'' after the lifting of UN sanctions has
not been realized yet. Iranians, although upset by this, still believe this
deal is by far the best way for Tehran to end global isolation, recapture lost
markets, diversify its foreign relations and win ''the ideological war''
Iran's enemies in the Gulf have waged against it.
The situation for Iran's moderate leadership is tricky. Not only does it have
to deal with the still imposed US sanctions and mounting domestic pressure
against the nuke-deal, but also the IRG, its own business interests and
political hardliners in Iran.
Today, USA and Russia compete for arms sale in energy-cash rich West Asia. The
West should recognize that any change in Iran will be gradual, best supported
by implementing the nuclear accord, resuming trade, and diplomacy that
balances Iranian and Arab interests in the Middle East. As its guardians try
to quell the deal's reverberations and preserve the balance of power, any
attempt by Western countries to play politics within the Iranian system could
well backfire. If world powers hope to progress on areas of concern and common
interest, they must engage Iran as it is, not the Iran they wish to see.
The best option for Western states and Iran is to continue reversing the
negative narratives from decades of suspicion and hostility by fully
implementing the nuclear accord; creating discrete and non-politicized
channels to address other issues of concern or common interest; and,
eventually, pushing for regional security architecture that takes account of
both Iranian and Arab interests. In the end, Iran and the West may not be able
to agree on a range of issues, but trying to game the Iranian system will
ensure that they will not.
Saudi Arabia needs to come to sense- earlier the better for it and Islam,
though it might feel Islam should not have been born there so that their
variety of capitalism and anti-Islamism can go on without any sense of shame
or guilt. Because of Saudi attitude even ordinary Muslims, for their own
reasons, are scared of criticizing anti-Islamism while badly suffering from
Islamophobia.
But the arrival of Islam to save humanity from
colonialist-capitalist-imperialist war mongers is real.
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