09 October 2016

By Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

The South Asian nuclear neighbors India and Pakistan have been at loggerheads since their independence from Great Britain in 1947. Upon obtaining freedom and sovereignty, both India and Pakistan did not waste time in invading and dividing a sovereign Jammu Kashmir which lay a sandwich between them. Both conducted 3 deadly wars over the status of alien Kashmir valley.

London queen supported the dismembering action of Kashmir in UN. UK, former ruler of India, Pakistan and Kashmir, seems to support both India and Pakistan over Kashmir issue, fueling tensions in the region. India and Pakistan would not have annexed Jammu Kashmir had UK opposed that.

And both want Kashmir lands to decorate their own territories and in the process over 100,000 Kashmiris (mostly Muslims) lost their lives as Indian forces mercilessly have run over them with guns and traps. India even bought Israeli guns for the genocide purposes.

India does not want to surrender Kashmir to Kashmiris while Pakistan seeks to get Kashmir from India. It is because of Kashmir India got WMD nukes with the help of UN veto remembers, followed by Pakistan doing the same.
India and Pakistan cause tensions in the region by regular crossfire operations essentially to terrorize the besieged Kashmiris.

One has no idea if they have some secret understating on Kashmir as well.
One gets the impression that India is indeed angry with Pakistan for internationalizing the Kashmir issue and refusing to accept the joint occupational reality as such. India is annoyed that its regular complaints to Washington against Pakistan has not worked in its favor. It appears New Delhi wants Islamabad to cooperate with USA in declaring Pakistan a terrorist nation.

Having failed to isolate Pakistan internationally by tactfully drawing USA to its side of story against Kashmir , Now India aims a isolating Pakistan in the region by taking a decision to bypass the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) meeting to be held in Islamabad.

In what is seen by New Delhi's anti-Pakistan strategists as another snub in the series to Pakistan, Indian PM Narendra Modi has decided not to attend the SAARC summit to be held in Islamabad in November. Not just that; India has been pressurizing other regional also not to attend the summit so that Pakistan stands isolated.

PM Modi feels all efforts to impress the regional leaders during his swearing in ceremony have not made any impact on the regional leaders or internationally. He views Pakistan being the cause of his failure and hence the angry outburst. .
India announced that it was pulling out of the Islamabad summit after the September 18 cross-border terror attack on an Indian Army base in Uri town of Jammu and Kashmir that claimed the lives of 18 soldiers. The attack came amid large-scale violence in Jammu and Kashmir that left around 90 people dead in the wake of the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Burhan Wani on July 8. India said increasing cross-border terrorist attacks in the region and growing interference in the internal affairs of Saarc member-states ''by one country'' have created an environment that was not conducive to the successful holding of the 19th Saarc summit.

As usual, India has quickly blamed Pakistan for a deadly assault on an army base in the disputed in Jammu Kashmir's Uri town. The foreign ministry's Vikas Swarup said India was pulling out from the SAARC summit scheduled in Islamabad in November due to present conditions. Indian foreign ministry said it understood that some other SAARC members were apprehensive about attending, but it did not name them.

The decision to cancel PM Modi's visit is the latest attempt by India to try to pressurize Pakistan diplomatically. India has said it will respond to the Kashmir attack but experts say it is short of military options because of the risk of escalation. Indian influence over a couple of its neighbors do work in its advantage

Following the diplomatic blitzkrieg launched by New Delhi, India calculates that Pakistan would virtually be getting isolated in the region with Bangladesh and Bhutan joining India in boycotting the annual Saarc Summit scheduled to be hosted by Islamabad in November. ''The growing interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh by 'one country' has created an environment which is not conducive to the successful hosting of the 19th Saarc Summit in Islamabad,'' sources quoted Bangladesh as saying in a message to current Saarc chair Nepal. ''Bangladesh, as the initiator of the Saarc process, remains steadfast in its commitment to regional cooperation, connectivity and contacts but believes that these can only go forward in a more congenial atmosphere,'' the message said.
Bangladesh has been critical of Pakistan of which had been a part of Pakistan as East Pakistan before a nation of Bangladeshis was established with help from India in 1974.

Bhutan produces literally nothing and depends on India and other neighbors for its substances. In its message to Nepal, Bhutan, while reaffirming its strong commitment to the Saarc process and strengthening of regional cooperation, noted that ''the concern of the Royal Government of Bhutan on the recent escalation of terrorism in the region, has seriously compromised the environment for the successful holding of the 19th SAARC Summit in Islamabad in November 2016'', it is learned. Indian media says, the Royal Government of Bhutan shares the concerns of some of the member countries of Saarc on the deterioration of regional peace and security due to terrorism and joins them in conveying our inability to participate in the Saarc Summit, under the current circumstances.

Having close economic and military ties with Pakistan, both Nepal and Srilanka are not amenable to Indian demand to abstain from SAARC meet in Pakistan. Sri Lanka, it was learned, has said that the event would not be possible without India's participation.

Pakistan, the host of SAARC summit, has termed the Indian boycott decision as ''unfortunate''. The US has also said that it was pressurizing Pakistan to act against ''terror'' safe havens within its borders. ''Well, I mean, clearly we've talked about that before is, while we've seen Pakistan make progress on some of the terrorist groups operating within its own borders and carrying out attacks within Pakistan's borders, that we continue to put pressure on Pakistan to respond to those groups who are, quote/unquote, 'seeking safe haven on Pakistan's borders', that — who are intent on carrying out attacks elsewhere in the region,'' US State Department deputy spokesperson Mark Toner said in the daily press briefing in Washington on Tuesday.The USA is one of the nine observer members of Saarc, the others being Australia, China, the European Union, Iran, Japan, Mauritius, Myanmar and South Korea. Toner said: ''We want to see closer relations and a normalization of relations, frankly, between India and Pakistan.'' ''It would be the — to the benefit of the region. And we want to see de-escalation in the political discourse between the two countries and greater communication and coordination between them,'' he said.

New Delhi had earlier blamed the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed terror outfit for the September 18 as well as the January 2 Pathankot air base attack in Punjab. However, it came out later that attacks were ''engineered'' locally in order only to blame Pakistan so that it does not demand Kashmir which is under Indian occupation.

Meanwhile, as a routine matter, Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar summoned Pakistani High Commissioner Abdul Basit and made a demarche that proved Islamabad's links to the attack. Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Vikas Swarup said that India has conveyed to Nepal its decision not to attend the summit, for which Prime Minister Narendra Modi was scheduled to go. ''India remains steadfast in its commitment to regional cooperation, connectivity and contacts but believes that these can only go forward in an atmosphere free of terror.

Former Pakistani president general Musharraf (born in Delhi), speaking to Indian TV channels, questioned the rationale of just blaming Pakistan for all terror attacks taking place in India and even in USA.

Concerned about the water dispute between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka over river Cauvery, Modi has said that India would revisit the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan that calls for sharing of the waters of the six rivers of the Indus basin with Pakistan while indicating that the most favored nation (MFN) trade status granted to the neighbour in 1996 might be revoked.

Following the diplomatic blitzkrieg launched by New Delhi, Pakistan is virtually getting isolated in the region with Afghanistan, which gets regular funds for developmental and perhaps anti-Pakistani operations across the border, joining India in boycotting the annual Saarc Summit scheduled to be hosted by Islamabad in November. ''Due to increased level of violence and fighting as a result of imposed terrorism on Afghanistan, President of Afghanistan Mohammad Ashraf Ghani with his responsibilities as the Commander in Chief will be fully engaged, and will not be able to attend the summit,'' sources quoted Kabul as saying in a message to Saarc chair Nepal.

It is not clear as yet if Pakistan would go ahead with the SAARC summit if India does not attend and even if USA, ignoring Indian pressure tactics, attends it as an observer. Can USA annoy the South Asian super power India which offers money to Americans on a regular basis to support on Kashmir issue?
Speculation is thrilling, indeed! 

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