21 October 2016
By Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal
Possibly something bad has happened to US policy makers and CIA-Pentagon duo
as their strategy to further divide and complicate relations between Russia
and Turkey misfired. The US game plan misfired thanks to the timely crushing
action by Turkish government against the plotters and coup leaders who seem to
have worked for quite some time under US-EU (Germany) directions to
destabilize the Islamist nation so that it never becomes strong, again.
Of course, Washington never expected the
coup to fail and sought President Erdogan and his ruling Muslim Brotherhood
party to perish in tandem and a puppet regime under a US stooge would assume
office to support Israel and USA.
Interestingly as it does happen in
international politics, rather quite often, the countries that were targeted
by USA, namely Russia and Turkey, got together by comprehending the hidden
agenda behind the presumed Pentagon instructions to Turkish military bosses to
fire down a Russian war plan that trespassed the airspace (territory) of the
erstwhile Ottoman Empire, resumed their ties. This is something that tarnished
the image of USA as being the top intelligence nation with high precision
information networks.
In
August, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to St. Petersburg to
meet his ''dear friend'' Russia's strongman Vladimir Putin. Their relations
had fallen to a low point when the Turks shot down a Russian warplane over
northern Syria. Unlike Western leaders, however, Putin had personally called
Erdogan to congratulate him on aborting an attempted military coup in July.
Turkey-Russia relations have had ups and downs since the era of Ottoman
Empire. A year ago, they were shaking hands, then relations cooled to icy
temperatures, but now it seems Russia and Turkey could be on the road to
restoring ties. President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep
Tayyip Erdogan have said they want to hold a face-to-face meeting as they
agreed to resume cooperation in trade, tourism and the fight against
terrorism. Relations took a turn for the worse in November last year when
Turkish forces shot down a Russian plane involved in the military campaign in
Syria. Ankara said the jet had strayed into its airspace. Erdogan wrote to
Putin to reportedly express regret for the incident. The Russian leader said
the letter created the conditions necessary to close ''this crisis chapter''
in bilateral ties. The thawing of relations comes in the same week as a deadly
terror attack in Istanbul's busiest airport, in which more than 40 people were
killed.
Russo-Turkish ties have not been upgraded at US cost. Top US officials have
not gone to great lengths to hide their dissatisfaction with Turkey's
rekindled friendship with Russia. For many Turks, the irony is that it was the
same spokespeople in Washington who urged the Turkish leadership to reach out
to the Kremlin – which, Secretary of State John Kerry thought, would play
ball. To make matters worse, Washington ignored repeated warnings that steps
taken by the US regime would place Turkey's vital interests at risk. In the
end, the Turks turned to other partners to protect their interests. And Russia
is a good friend now.
US-Turkey relations have not, however, affected badly as it should because of
regular NATO meetings and other secret conclaves. Turkey is the only Muslim
nation from Europe in NATO. After roughly nine months of disagreement, Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to
revive their stalled bilateral relationship in their first direct contact on
June 29, fueling hopes about restoring economic and trade ties Turkish Chief
of Military Staff General Hulusi Akar departed for the USA to attend the
meeting of anti-Daish coalition military chiefs. The meeting is taking place
ahead of the crucial operation to liberate Iraq's second largest city of Mosul
from Daish. According to the statement released by the Turkish General Staff,
the last meeting of the coalition military chiefs had taken place six months
ago.
What the USA and European allies are worried about, however, isn't Turkish
tomatoes. It's that improving ties between Ankara and Moscow could translate
into closer cooperation on political challenges including the Syrian crisis.
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton announced that she would
provide weapons and ammunition to YPG, the PKK's Syrian franchise, as part of
the anti-Daish campaign. Russia could use Turkey against Europe.
Arrival and success of Russian warplanes
in Syria where Americans were calling all shots, was a slap on Washington. The
Moscow-Washington agreement of September 10th on Syria, reached after 10
months of hard bargaining and now in shambles after another broken truce, had
one crucial if little noted aspect. For the first time since the Soviet Union
imploded, Russia managed to put itself on the same diplomatic footing as the
USA. Russian strive for equal status from USA, however, is still elusive
The Pentagon soon signed a memorandum of
understanding with the Kremlin over safety procedures for their aircraft, now
sharing Syrian air space, and established a ground communications link for any
problems that should arise. The morale of the Assad regime had improved, it
was no longer in danger of being overthrown and its hand was strengthened at
any future negotiating table.
Obviously, USA has lost its prestige on world stage even as Moscow is gaining
importance in the global eyes.
In August 2015, by all accounts, President Assad was on the ropes and the
morale of his dwindling army at rock bottom. Even the backing of Iran and the
Lebanese militant group Hezbollah had proven insufficient to reverse his
faltering hold on power. To save his falling regime from collapse, the
Kremlin's military planners decided to fill the gaping hole left by Syria's
collapsing air force, shore up its air defenses, and boost its depleted
arsenal of tanks and armored vehicles. The number of Russian military
personnel dispatched was estimated at 4,000 to 5,000. Although none of them
were ground troops, this was an unprecedented step in recent Russian history.
The last time the Kremlin had deployed significant forces outside its
territory- in December 1979 in Afghanistan – proved an ill-judged venture,
ending a decade later in their withdrawal, followed by the collapse of the
Soviet Union in December 1991.
Meeting in Istanbul on October 10, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his
Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin signed a historic agreement to launch the
Turkish Stream, a natural gas pipeline that will deliver Russian gas to Europe
via Turkey. Just a few months ago, the project was considered dead in the
water: Turks had downed a Russian jet over airspace violations and the Kremlin
was trying to hurt the tourism industry in Turkey. There was even talk of a
violent escalation between Ankara and Moscow.
Turkey and Russia kissed and made up.
The Turkish-Russian rapprochement has been largely limited to energy and
economic cooperation. Since Erdogan's visit to St. Petersburg, Russian
tourists have come back to the Turkish riviera, as import restrictions on
Turkish agricultural produce were largely lifted.
The high level of economic relations
between Turkey and Russia has become the most important component of our
bilateral multidimensional relations. Trade volume between our countries
exceeded 25.2 billion Dollars, as of the first 11 month of 2007, making
Russia, Turkey's second trading partner after Germany. Russia is now the main
import source for the Turkish economy. Imports from Russia account for about
13% of overall imports. Turkey's share in Russia's foreign trade also reached
significant levels. As of 2007, Turkey, with a share of about 5%, is Russia's
4th export country. Russia's imports from Turkey are also increasing and
reached 4,3 billion Dollars in the first 11 month of 2007. N The total value
of projects undertaken by Turkish contractors in Russia surpassed 26 billion
Dollars, making Russia by far the most important market for Turkish
construction services.
As for
Turkish direct investments in Russia, they are estimated to have reached 5,6
billion Dollars. At the same time, there is a growing interest by the Russian
firms, especially in the telecommunications, energy and tourism sectors, in
investment in Turkey. ,Tourism is yet another economic area where our
bilateral relations have grown at a very rapid pace. Where in 1999 the number
of Russian tourists visiting our country was bellow 500 thousand, this figure
reached 2,4 billion in 2007. Turkey has become the most preferred holiday
destination for Russians. The number of Turkish tourist visiting Russia is
also rapidly growing and reached about 200 thousand.
However, Turkey and Russia view the Syrian issue differently. While the Turks
maintain that there can be no lasting peace in Syria unless Assad is removed
from power, the Kremlin recently doubled down by joining the regime in bombing
Aleppo, where airstrikes have resulted in large casualties. Likewise, the
Turkish leadership has major differences of opinion with the Russians also on
Crimea and Egypt. Speaking at the World Energy Congress recently, the Turkish
President called for an end to indiscriminate attacks on Aleppo – with Putin
just 10 feet away. It was a symbolic gesture to make it clear that Turkey was
not backtracking on Syria. It remains unlikely Turkey and Russia will reach an
agreement over Syria and the future of Bashar Assad anytime soon.
In recent years, US allies around the world – Turkey, Japan and Israel, among
others – felt that Washington was no longer a reliable friend. In the Middle
East, Obama rewarded ''rogue'' Iran for breaking every rule in the book, while
taking shots at regional allies in front of the cameras. In Asia-Pacific,
Obama failed to support Japan against China and last month congress voted for
an act that permits families of the victims of 9/11 attacks to sue Saudi
Arabia.
Turkey pursued a policy of diversification in the international arena to learn
to work with a large number of partners to address pressing problems and
pursue its goals. Instead of relying on Washington, the Turks reached the
conclusion that the most effective way to address regional challenges was to
promote regional cooperation. Keeping in mind that Turkey isn't alone, the USA
will presumably pay the price of Obama's ambitions and disloyalty by facing
growing isolation in the region.
Meanwhile, the Turks made it clear that they have absolutely no intention to
waste precious time with Washington. Obama's isolationist foreign policy,
coupled with his mismanagement of the Syrian crisis, alienated the Turkish
leadership and forced Turkey to search for alternative partners. The Obama
regime repeatedly urged Ankara to kiss and make up with Moscow when the
Russians were still playing ball with US Secretary of State John Kerry – who,
at the time, refused to accept that he had deteriorated yet again. Turkey's
policy should only serve as a warning sign of how bad the Obama government
hurt US interests around the world.
The next US president might enter the Oval Office only to find out that
America has no allies left in the Middle East thanks to Barack Obama's
short-sighted policies. The next president must overhaul foreign policy to win
back hearts and minds in Turkey and other frustrated allied nations. Unless
Washington corrects its course, Ankara's cooperation with Moscow will only
mark the beginning of a dangerous trend for American interests on the ground.
The USA needs to correctly identify its national interests in the Middle East
and act accordingly if they would like to be taken seriously by regional
actors.
Coercive tactics won't work any longer. USA must wind down all terror wars
meant to showcase its military prowess and ensure its energy security. USA and
NATO along with their allies like India and Israel have jointly murdered
millions of Muslims worldwide. Enough of bloodbath in Islamic world
There is absolutely nothing that Washington can do now to disturb the tempo of
Russo=Turkish relations growing from strength to strength.
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